The importance of social embeddedness

This article argues the importance of social embeddedness at mobile providers by examining the effects of customers’ network topological properties on churn probability—the probability of a customer switching from one telecommunication provider to another. This article uses data from regional snowball sampling—the only practically feasible network sampling method—to identify groups with significantly different churn ratios for customers with different network topological properties. Clear evidence indicates that individual network characteristics (node-level metrics) have considerable impact on churn probabilities. The inclusion of network-related measures in the churn model allows a longer-term projection of churners and improves the predictive power of the model.With no possibility to carry out repeated sampling, sample stability was checked through simulation results. On the one hand, this article highlights the importance and effectiveness of the provider’s tailored marketing campaigns by showing that customers targeted by direct marketing campaigns are less threatened by churn than nontargeted customers. On the other, this article shows that social embeddedness blocks the impact of the very samemarketing efforts. This article forwards the idea that social embeddedness, also prevalent in vendor switching, can be extended to understanding the development of professional societies threatened by membership churn.

Elemzés vagy megérzés: a stratégiai döntéshozatal gyakorlata Californiában és Magyarországon = Analysis or Intuition: Strategic decision making in California and Hungary

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felsővezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében 40 felsővezetőt kérdeztünk két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök, vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk, mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felsővezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján; 2) Mennyiben különböznek - ha egyáltalán különböznek - a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják; 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsment képességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsment kultúrákban. = Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

Consistency of the decision-maker in pair-wise comparisons

Most authors assume that the natural behaviour of the decision-maker is being inconsistent. This paper investigates the main sources of inconsistency and analyses methods for reducing or eliminating inconsistency. Decision support systems can contain interactive modules for that purpose. In a system with consistency control, there are three stages. First, consistency should be checked: a consistency measure is needed. Secondly, approval or rejection has to be decided: a threshold value of inconsistency measure is needed. Finally, if inconsistency is ‘high’, corrections have to be made: an inconsistency reducing method is needed. This paper reviews the difficulties in all stages. An entirely different approach is to elaborate a decision support system in order to force the decision-maker to give consistent values in each step of answering pair-wise comparison questions. An interactive questioning procedure resulting in consistent (sub) matrices has been demonstrated.

Endogenous choice of decision variables

In this paper we allow the firms to choose their prices and quantities simultaneously. Quantities are produced in advance and their common sales price is determined by the market. Firms offer their “residual capacities” at their announced prices and the corresponding demand will be served to order. If all firms have small capacities, we obtain the Bertrand solution; while if at least one firm has a sufficiently large capacity, the Cournot outcome and a model of price leadership could emerge.

Racionális és intuitív döntéshozók Kaliforniában és Magyarországon (Analysis or Intuition – Strategic decision making in California and Hungary)

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felső vezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében a szerző negyven felső vezetőt kérdezett meg két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felső vezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján 2) Mennyiben különböznek – ha egyáltalán különböznek – a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsmentképességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsmentkultúrákban? ______ Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

The impact of perceived corporate environmental performance on the behavior of capital market decision makers : analysis of food industry companies

Environmental protectionism and sustainable development has been gaining increased attention among governments, investors and consumers alike. As a result, firms are facing growing pressure from the various stakeholders to improve their environmental performance. This study is focusing on the food industry, which in recent years has been a subject of increased scrutiny due to their role in resource consumption, waste generation and unsustainable production practices. Our research is aiming to examine how the financial community evaluates the environmental stewardship of food industry companies as proxied by market reactions in response to environmental news. Are all company related environmental news items evaluated equally, and which financial and non-financial firm-specific attributes can influence market responses? Have there been changes in reactions on the stock exchange in the past two decades?

“An Ebbing Tide Lowers all Boats” How the great recession of 2008 has affected men and women in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we explore the impact of the economic recession of 2008 on gender inequality in the labor force in Central and Eastern European countries. We argue that job and occupational segregation protected women’s employment more than men's in the CEE region as well, but unlike in more developed capitalist economies, women’s level of labor force participation declined and their rates of poverty increased during the crisis years. We also explore gender differences in opinions on the impact of the recession on people’s job satisfaction. For our analysis we use published data from EUROSTAT and our own calculations from EU SILC and ESS 2010.

Vállalati döntés egy új információbiztonsági eszköz, a kvantumkulcscsere bevezetéséről (Corporate decision about the installation of a new information security device the quantum key distribution)

A szerzők tanulmányukban az információbiztonság egy merőben új, minőségi változást hozó találmányával, a kvantumkulcscserével (QKD-vel – quantum key distribution) foglalkoznak. Céljuk az, hogy az újdonságra mint informatikai biztonsági termékre tekintsenek, és megvizsgálják a bevezetéséről szóló vállalati döntés során felmerülő érveket, ellenérveket. Munkájuk egyaránt műszaki és üzleti szemléletű. Előbb elkülönítik a kvantumkulcscsere hagyományos eljárásokkal szembeni használatának motiváló tényezőit, és megállapítják, milyen körülmények között szükséges a napi működésben alkalmazni. Ezt követően a forgalomban is kapható QKD-termékek tulajdonságait és gyártóit szemügyre véve megfogalmazzák a termék széles körű elterjedésének korlátait. Végül a kvantumkulcscsere-termék bevezetéséről szóló vállalati döntéshozás különböző aspektusait tekintik át. Információbiztonsági és üzleti szempontból összehasonlítják az új, valamint a hagyományosan használt kulcscsereeszközöket. Javaslatot tesznek a védendő információ értékének becslésére, amely a használatbavétel költség-haszon elemzését támaszthatja alá. Ebből levezetve megállapítják, hogy mely szervezetek alkotják a QKD lehetséges célcsoportját. Utolsó lépésként pedig arra keresik a választ, melyik időpont lehet ideális a termék bevezetésére. _____ This study aims to illuminate Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), a new invention that has the potential to bring sweeping changes to information security. The authors’ goal is to present QKD as a product in the field of IT security, and to examine several pro and con arguments regarding the installation of this product. Their work demonstrates both the technical and the business perspectives of applying QKD. First they identify motivational factors of using Quantum Key Distribution over traditional methods. Then the authors assess under which circumstances QKD could be necessary to be used in daily business. Furthermore, to evaluate the limitations of its broad spread, they introduce the vendors and explore the properties of their commercially available QKD products. Bearing all this in mind, they come out with numerous factors that can influence corporate decision making regarding the installation of QKD. The authors compare the traditional and the new tools of key distribution from an IT security and business perspective. They also take efforts to estimate the value of the pieces of information to be protected. This could be useful for a subsequent cost–benefit analysis. Their findings try to provide support for determining the target audience of QKD in the IT security market. Finally the authors attempt to find an ideal moment for an organization to invest in Quantum Key Distribution.

Patterns in the lottery game

The present study is based on the analysis and results of a close to 5 years’ study in the frame which we used a “Lottery Game” in the "Decision Making Skills" subject taught at Corvinus Business School, Corvinus University of Budapest. In the frame of the "game", the students (Hungarians (n=231) and foreigners (n=267) alike) have to mark 6 numbers on a 7x7 lottery ticket. The winner is the student whose numbers differ the most from those of all the other students’. Upon analyzing the results (irrespectively of nationality) the authors have noted something notable: the winning combinations - rather than being located randomly on the ticket, characteristically resemble a geometric form. In our study we wanted to detect the relevance of geometry in this kind of choices. It is hypothesized that in such games (lottery type, related to numeric combination choice), where the players decide upon their strategy (choice of numbers) by also taking into consideration others’ expected choices, the winning strategy is characteristically some consciously chosen scheme or pattern as opposed to a random one. The study presents the results of the available samples (Hungarian students: n=231, foreign students: n=267), the winning combinations, the most often designated numbers, as well as the least “popular” numbers and their presentation on a "heat map". In the case of the majority of the winning tickets we found the use of conscious strategic choice to be more useful. These conscious strategic decisions were reflected in identifiable geometric forms. Based on the results, we hypothesize that in the "hidden lottery" game – in contrast with random choice – the most effective strategy of choice is the conscious ordered one in which the player marks the numbers on the lottery ticket in some modified geometric pattern. The goal of the paper is to propose further research on the field.

A New Role for Management of the Social Sciences in an Age of Complexity

A particular scientific world view has become dominant, influential and successful in modern sciences today. Science and technology have transformed the way we view ourselves, our societies and our place in the cosmos. However, just as science and technology seem to be at the peak of their power, unexpected problems are disrupting the sciences from within. This reflects a deeper and more serious problem regarding scientific inquiry. Science is being held back by old assumptions that have become dogmas, the biggest of which is that science already knows all the answers, and only the details need to be worked out. A transformational paradigm shift is required from a mechanistic world view to an organic world view to better address the challenges of the new millenium.