A New Method For Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods are frequently adopted for both policy oriented and academic research. This paper proposes a new procedure for combining univariate detrending techniques which is based on revisions of the estimated output gaps adjusted by the variance of and the correlation among output gaps. The procedure is applied to the study of the similarity of business cycles between the euro area and new EU Member States.

Evaluation of the EU membership of the new member states

When analysing the impacts of EU membership on NMCs, and in particular on the Hungarian economy, we consider integration maturity as a theoretical framework. Integration maturity can be defined as a capability to exploit the benefits of the given form of integration to the maximum, while the costs and drawbacks can be minimised. Integration maturity can be measured by comparing costs and benefits. A country is mature for integration if membership on the whole is advantageous for it.

Economics of the new member states: A post-crisis perspective

This essay addresses four major issues confronting the Central and Eastern European new members of the European Union in the decade to come. First: what to think of the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Second, what have they learned from the tremors, having shaken the previous star performers of the EU? Third we ask if we can expect a return to ‘normalcy' as forecast by most models of financial rating agencies and international financial institutions? Fourth the question is raised what did the new members benefit from their EU membership? Some conclusions on the future of EU reforms and policies close the overview.

Tíz év az Európai Unióban - az új tagországok agrárteljesítményei = A decade in the EU: the agricultural performances of the new member-states

Több mint tíz év telt el az Európai Unió 2004. évi kibővülése óta. A tízéves évforduló jó lehetőséget kínált a mérlegkészítésre, annak vizsgálatára, hogy a legfrissebb elérhető adatok tükrében milyen fejlődési pályát tudhatnak maguk mögött az új tagországok mezőgazdasági szektorai. Írásunk célja a tíz kelet- európai EU-tagállam agrárteljesítményének értékelése, illetve ez alapján a csatlakozás nyerteseinek, illetve veszteseinek azonosítása. A rendelkezésre álló adatokat a többdimenziós faktoranalízis módszerével feldolgozva arra az eredményre jutottunk, hogy Lengyelország, Észtország és Litvánia hármasa tekinthető az agrárcsatlakozás abszolút nyertesének, míg a többi új tagállam nem volt képes teljes mértékben kihasználni a csatlakozás adta lehetőségeket. Az eredményekből az is látható, hogy a magas hozzáadott értékű termékekre való szakosodás jó stratégiának bizonyult, mert gyorsabb fejlődést biztosított, mint a mezőgazdasági alaptermékekre való koncentrálás. ____ The period of over ten years since the 2004 round of EU accessions provides a good opportunity to assess and take stock of agricultural developments in the new member- States, in light of the latest available data. The paper sets out to assess their agricultural performances and to identify the winners and losers by accession in this regard. Ranking individual country performances using Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) suggests that Poland, Estonia and Lithuania can be considered as winners, whereas the other countries failed to use the potentials of membership to the full. The results also suggest that focusing on agri-food products with a high added value proved a good development strategy for the sector. Countries that concentrated on producing agri-food raw materials lagged behind.