Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Európai lepkeszúnyog fajok potenciális elterjedése a 21. században

Leishmaniasis is a typical vectorial disease transmitted by Psycodidae vectors (Lutzomyans, Phlebotomus species). The worldwide observed 1,5-2 million new cases and 60,000 death caused by Leishmania parasites per year make leishmaniasis is one of the most important vectorial disease in the tropicals and warm temperate areas of the World. In the human environment dogs and cats are the most important hosts of the different leishmania agents. The different leishmania species cause symptomatically cutan or visceral disease forms, but many other type of the disease has recognised. Phlebotomus species are sensitive to climatic patterns, they require hight relative air humidity, mild winters and long and warm vegetation period, but the environmental requirements of the species naturally is not the same. Due to climate change in the near future the climate of Western and Central Europe could allow the colonisation of these highly populated areas with also the vectors and the parasites. Our aim was to analyse the environmental patterns of the current distribution area of 8 important sand flies (P. ariasi, P. perniciosus, P. perfiliewi, P. papatasi, P. tobbi, P. neglectus, P. similis and P. sergenti) using the 1960-1990 period’s climate as reference. Using climate envelope modeling we determined these climatic characters and using the REMO climate projection we created the recent and the near-future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) potential distribution area of the sand flies. The current known area of many Phlebotomus species restricted either to the western or to the eastern Mediterranean Basin. We found that their climatic requirements are could not explain their segregation, it is maybe the consequence of their evolutionary history (geographical barriers and paleoclimatic history). By the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sand flies, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2070’s in Southern Hungary. As the climate becomes drier and warmer, sand flies will occupy more and more parts of Hungary. Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Logisztikai folyamatok informatikai támogatottsága Magyarországon – fókuszban a disztribúciós logisztika = Backing logistics processes with information technology – current practice and improvement possibilities at Hungarian companies

Az elemzés egy, a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem (BCE) Logisztika és Ellátási Lánc Menedzsment Tanszéke által végzett kérdőíves felmérés eredményeit foglalja össze. A kutatás alapvető célja, hogy felmérje és bemutassa a hazai vállalatok logisztikai, ezen belül is elsősorban disztribúciós logisztikai folyamatainak informatikai oldalról történő jelenlegi támogatottsági szintjét és a következő két-három év e téren várható fejlesztési irányait. A kutatás szisztematikusan kitért a logisztikai információs rendszer valamennyi alrendszerére, vizsgálta a különböző azonosítási megoldások elterjedtségét, a vállalatirányítási rendszer, illetve egyes moduljainak használatával kapcsolatban kialakult gyakorlatot, de a logisztika stratégiai döntéseinek informatikai támogatottságát és a használt kommunikációs technikákat is. Összességében megállapíthatjuk, hogy a logisztikai információs rendszerek fejlettségi szintje ma Magyarországon közepesnek mondható, fontos megjegyezni azonban, hogy a KKV szektor e téren is jelentős lemaradással rendelkezik. Ez természetesen azt is jelent, hogy az informatikai eszközök alkalmazásának kiterjesztésével még jelentős teljesítményjavulás érhető el. = The essay summarizes the results of a survey carried out by Corvinus University of Budapest, Department of Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Aim of the survey was to analyze and describe the actual Hungarian company practice regarding the IT support of logistics – and particularly distribution – processes, and the plans of developing it within the next 2-3 years. Survey has systematically covered all fields of logistics information system, analyzed the prevalence of different identification techniques and systems. On the whole we appoint that logistics information systems applied by Hungarian companies are on satisfactory level; however it is important to tell that SME companies are in huge lag. This means that improving logistics information system hides the possibility of considerable performance development.

Logisztikai folyamatok informatikai támogatottsága Magyarországon – Fókuszban a disztribúciós logisztika (Supporting logistics processes by information technology – current practice and improvement possibilities at Hungarian companies)

Az elemzés egy a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem (BCE) Logisztika és Ellátási Lánc Menedzsment Tanszéke által végzett kérdőíves felmérés eredményeit foglalja össze. A kutatás alapvető célja, hogy felmérje és bemutassa a hazai vállalatok logisztikai, ezen belül is elsősorban disztribúciós logisztikai folyamatainak informatikai oldalról történő jelenlegi támogatottsági szintjét és a következő két-három év e téren várható fejlesztési irányait. A kutatás szisztematikusan kitért a logisztikai információs rendszer valamennyi alrendszerére, vizsgálta a különböző azonosítási megoldások elterjedtségét, a vállalatirányítási rendszer, illetve egyes moduljainak használatával kapcsolatban kialakult gyakorlatot, de a logisztika stratégiai döntéseinek informatikai támogatottságát és a használt kommunikációs technikákat is. Összességében megállapítható, hogy a logisztikai információs rendszerek fejlettségi szintje ma Magyarországon közepes, fontos megjegyezni azonban, hogy a kkv-szektor e téren is jelentősen lemaradt. Ez természetesen azt is jelenti, hogy az informatikai eszközök alkalmazásának kiterjesztésével még komoly teljesítményjavulás érhető el. ________ The essay summarizes the results of a survey carried out by Corvinus University of Budapest, Department of Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Aim of the survey was to analyze and describe the actual Hungarian company practice regarding the IT support of logistics – and particularly distribution – processes, and the plans to develop it within the next 2-3 years. Survey has systematically overviewed all fields of logistics information system, analyzed the prevalence of different identification techniques and systems. Generally the authors appoint that logistics information systems applied by Hungarian companies are on satisfactory level; however it is important to tell that SME companies are in huge lag. This means that improving logistics information system hides the possibility of considerable performance development.

Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical ontributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i) delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii) extending study sites to broader geographical areas with a more explicit consideration of running waters; iii) applying plankton functional groups; iv) increasing the application of satellite data to quantify phytoplankton bloom phenology; v) extending analyses of time series beyond the spring period; vi) using various metrics to quantify variation in phenology; vii) combining empirical, experimental and theoretical approaches; and last but not least viii) paying more attention to emergence dynamics, nonresponding species and trophic mismatch.