Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.

A magyar fiatalok jellemzése pénzügyi attitűdjeik és magatartásuk mentén – Vizsgálat a felsőoktatásban tanulók pénzügyi attitűdjeiről és magatartásáról = Characterization of the Hungarian youth with their financial attitudes and behaviours – A survey about the financial behaviour and attitudes of students

A pénzügyi piacok és termékek egyre komplexebbé válnak, ami együtt jár a pénzügyeket illető információs szakadék mélyülésével is – a lakosság egyre kevésbé képes pénzügyeiről körültekintő döntéseket hozni. Jelen tanulmány a magyar felsőoktatásban tanuló fiatalokat pénzügyi attitűdjeik mentén szegmentálja és jellemzi, annak érdekében, hogy hozzájáruljon a pénzügyi kultúra szintjét növelő programok sikerességéhez, legyen az állami indíttatású (pénzügyi edukáció) vagy a versenyszféra által vezérelt. A vizsgált fiatalok alapvetően három csoportba sorolhatók: (1) Konzervatívak, (2) Lázadók és (3) Tapasztaltak. A Konzervatívakra a stabil morális értékrend, alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság jellemző, céljaik között egyaránt találunk rövid és hosszú távúakat is – informáltságuk, és ebből eredően pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, a hitelekkel szembeni attitűdjük negatív. A Lázadók csoportjára az „Élj a mának!” magatartás a jellemző, vagyis rövid távú céljaik vannak, kevésbé tudatosak, pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, ugyanakkor nyitottak az újdonságokra és a kockázatvállalási szintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. A Tapasztaltak csoportjára a tudatosság és a pénzügyi megfontoltság a jellemző – pénzügyi ismeretszintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. Náluk a hosszú távú célok dominálnak, de alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság mellett. _____ Financial markets and financial instruments have become more and more complex in the last decades. Unfortunately, financial literacy of population cannot keep up with the innovation activity of financial sector. By segmenting and describing Hungarian young adults along their financial attitudes, the aim of this study is to provide recommendations to the programs aiming to enhance the development of financial literacy. According to the authors’ results, 18-25 year-old young adults can be categorized as (1) conservatives, (2) rebels and (3) experienced. Conservatives can be characterized by stable moral and values, low risktaking willingness and inappropriate financial knowledge. Both short and long term goals can be explored among their preferences. Conservatives have negative attitude to bank loans. The rebels can be described by the ancient Latin saying: “Carpe Diem”. They have short-term goals and the future financial stability is not an issue for them – their financial literacy is low. However, rebels are open-minded and their risk-taking willingness is greater than the other two group members. Despite of the low level of risk-taking willingness, the highest level of financial literacy is showed by the experienced group. They have long-term goals and are able to receive information about complex financial instruments.