Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

The possibilities of biodiversity monitoring based on Hungarian Light Trap Networks

Our method is presented with displaying time series, consisting of the daily amount of precipitation of 100 years, which has meant a separate challenge, as the precipitation data shows significant deviations. By nowadays, mankind has changed its environment to such an extent that it has a significant effect on other species as well. The Lepidoptera data series of the National Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network can be used to justify this. This network has a national coverage, a large number of collected Lepidoptera, and an available, long data series of several years. For obtaining information from these data, the setting up of an easy to manage database is necessary. Furthermore, it is important to represent our data and our results in an easily analysable and expressive way. In this article the setting up of the database is introduced, together with the presentation of a three dimensional visualization method, which depicts the long-range and seasonal changes together.