Climatic effects on the phenology of geophytes

Nowadays, the scientific and social significance of the research of climatic effects has become outstanding. In order to be able to predict the ecological effects of the global climate change, it is necessary to study monitoring databases of the past and explore connections. For the case study mentioned in the title, historical weather data series from the Hungarian Meteorological Service and Szaniszló Priszter’s monitoring data on the phenology of geophytes have been used. These data describe on which days the observed geophytes budded, were blooming and withered. In our research we have found that the classification of the observed years according to phenological events and the classification of those according to the frequency distribution of meteorological parameters show similar patterns, and the one variable group is suitable for explaining the pattern shown by the other one. Furthermore, our important result is that the dates of all three observed phenophases correlate significantly with the average of the daily temperature fluctuation in the given period. The second most often significant parameter is the number of frosty days, this also seem to be determinant for all phenophases. Usual approaches based on the temperature sum and the average temperature don’t seem to be really important in this respect. According to the results of the research, it has turned out that the phenology of geophytes can be well modelled with the linear combination of suitable meteorological parameters

Impacts of climate change on vegetation distribution. No. 1: Climate change induced vegetation shifts in the palearctic region

Global average temperature has increased and precipitation pattern has altered over the past 100 years due to increases in greenhouse gases. These changes will alter numerous site factors and biochemical processes of vegetative communities such as nutrient and water availability, permafrost thawing, fire regime, biotic interactions and invasion. As a consequence, climate change is expected to alter distribution ranges of many species and communities as well as boundaries of biomes. Shifting of species and vegetation zones northwards and upwards in elevation has already been observed. Besides, several experiments have been conducted and simulations have been run all over the world in order to predict possible range shifts and ecological risks. In this paper, we review literature available in Web of Science on Europe and boreal Eurasia and give an overview of observed and predicted changes in vegetation in these regions. The main trends include advance of the tree line, reduction of the alpine vegetation belt, drought risk, forest diebacks, a shift from coniferous forests to deciduous forests and invasion. It is still controversial if species migration will be able to keep pace with climate change.