Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Environmentally conscious consumption patterns in Hungarian households

This article provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the theoretical aspects of sustainable consumption. The conditions for consumers’ social responsibility and the formation of environmentally conscious behavior patterns will also be discussed, along with possible methods for motivating behavioral changes. The authors have completed a primary research study with the purpose of surveying environmentally conscious consumption patterns in Hungary. They also examined how the provision of appropriate information and the raising of awareness might encourage sustainable consumption. According to their findings, the respondents’ knowledge on environmentally conscious behavior was rather limited, and reinforcement was needed in identifying appropriate activity alternatives. This paper provides a summary of the qualitative research phase which employed in-depth interviews, logging and focus groups. The consecutive application of these methods enabled the authors to keep track of the process and the consequences of raising awareness.

The European Patterns of "Homo Academicus“ and The Chances of Its Evolution In Current Hungarian Higher Education

In the recent four or five years, there have been abrupt and radical changes in the governance of Hungarian higher education. It can then be interesting to assess the state of “homo academicus“ as it looks currently in Hungary. The notion of “homo academicus“ is obvious: it concerns participants in the system of a country’s higher education. The paper as follows still comes back to the definition of “homo academicus“ by referring first to it as occupation, or rather as a profession that can be interpreted in terms of sociology. Secondly, some historic patterns can also be mobilised, based on the assumption that university is a very European institutions that is even rooted in the tradition of the Middle Ages. The elbow-room of seeking for identity and the role to be filled by academics are limited by the effective system of the governance of higher education. It is a key to the chances of academics of meeting the historically corroborated professional standards that they exercise academic freedom. As it cannot be done individually, but in cooperation (through a collegial system), academic freedom is always combined with collective action. The field where this freedom can be exercised can be specified through university autonomy, the lack of which makes a serious barrier to the full development of a character of “homo academicus“. This is now the case in Hungary, the paper suggests. The paper seeks to gain deeper understanding of the character of academics, their vocation and professional roles, and the governance of higher education, serving as the environment for academic activity, by creating a conceptual framework. The paper is established on the results of sociological research and the experience of legal management, although it remains to be of theoretical nature. It criticises the current Hungarian situation of the governance of higher education, arguing for the reconstruction of university autonomy and financial stability. It also emphasises the importance of predictable regulations.