Negative impact of climate change on the distribution of some conifers

A climate envelope model was run on the distribution of four coniferous species (European silver fir, European larch, Norway spruce, and Swiss pine). The model was supported by EUFORGEN area database, ArcGIS 10 and PAST software, andREMO climate model. Prediction periods were 2011-40 and 2041-70.

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.