A gazdaságmodellezési adatbázis szakágazati adatai

A dolgozat az előző számban megjelent tanulmány folytatásaként bemutatja a szakágazati és rétegbontású adatok forrásait, előállítási módszereit (becslések, szétbontások, imputálások stb.) és eredményeit. Az egyes részek az Ágazati Kapcsolati Mérlegek energetikai dezaggregációjával, a jövedelemelosztás és a tőkeszámlák szakágazati bontásával, a beruházási mátrix, az (átértékelt) állóeszközök és munkaerő-állomány meghatározásával foglalkoznak.

A New Method For Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods are frequently adopted for both policy oriented and academic research. This paper proposes a new procedure for combining univariate detrending techniques which is based on revisions of the estimated output gaps adjusted by the variance of and the correlation among output gaps. The procedure is applied to the study of the similarity of business cycles between the euro area and new EU Member States.

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "convergence criteria," used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Which rationing rule does a single consumer follow?

We will investigate the amount of residual demand in a market consisting of only one consumer and two producers. Since there is only one consumer, we cannot really speak about a rationing rule, but we can ask ourselves whether a known rationing rule reflects the consumer’s utility maximizing behavior. We will show that, if the consumer has a Cobb-Douglas utility function, then the amount purchased by the consumer from the high-price firm lies between the values determined according to the efficient rationing rule and the random rationing rule. We will show further, that if the consumer has a quasilinear utility function, then in the economically interesting case his residual demand function will be equal to the residual demand function under efficient rationing.

Tax implications of dividend policy

This study examines the tax-arbitrage possibilities on the Budapest Stock Exchange between 1995 and 2007. The theoretical possibility for the arbitrage is the different taxation for different stockholders, for the private investors and for the institutions: the institutions had higher taxation on capital gain while private persons in the whole period had tax-benefits on capital gains. The dynamic clientele model shows, that there is a range of the price drops after dividend payouts which guarantees a risk-free profit for both parties. The research is based on the turnover data from 97 companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. We have tested the significant turnovers around the dividend-dates. The study presents clear evidence that investors continuously did take advantages on the different taxation.

On the peculiar relevance of a fundamental dilemma of minimum-wage regulation in post-socialism – apropos of an international investigation

To the extent minimum-wage regulation is effective in fighting against excessive earnings handicaps of those at the lower end-tail of earnings distribution, it may have the side-effect of worsening their employment prospects. A demand-and-supply interpretation of data on the relative employment rate and earnings position of the least educated in the EU27 suggests that the resulting dilemma might be particularly relevant for minimum-wage policies in post-socialist countries.

A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis

The euro area‘s sovereign debt crisis continues though significant steps have been taken to resolve it. This paper proposes a comprehensive solution to the crisis based on three pillars: a plan to restore banking sector soundness in the whole euro area, a resolution of sovereign debt crisis -including a revision of EU assistance facilities and a reduction of the Greek public debt- and a strategy to foster growth and competitiveness. The paper provides novel estimates and analysis focusing on the current situation of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.