The Euro Area's Tightrope Walk: Debt and Competitiveness in Italy and Spain

- Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. - In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. - The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Államadósság, optimális politika, finanszírozás (State Debt, Optimal Policy, and Financing)

A fejlett ipari országoknak is az államadósság csökkentése vagy akár szinten tartása okozza az egyik legfontosabb gazdaságpolitikai dilemmát. Az euróövezet tagállamai esetében is ez a kritérium tűnik a legkevésbé teljesíthetőnek, de Japán és az Egyesült Államok is leküzdhetetlennek tűnő államadóssággal birkózik. A tanulmány rövid áttekintést ad néhány meghatározó közgazdasági megközelítésről, amelyek az államadósság szintjének hosszú távú alakulása mögött meghúzódó tényezőket, gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket magyarázzák. Végül az elméletek alapján tanulságokat fogalmaz meg a magyar államadósság kezelését illetően az 1990–2010 közötti folyamatok ismeretében. _____ The macroeconomic developments of the last decade have confirmed that one of the most important dilemmas that even developed economies have to face is the reduction or even sustaining of the state debt. In case of the eurozone member states this criterion is the most difficult to be accomplished, furthermore the United States and Japan are among the global powers that have to cope with state debts which seems to be insurmountable. The aim of this paper is to provide a brief overview of some decisive economic approaches (Barro [1979], Lucas and Stokey [1983], Marcet and Scott [2007], Martin [2009] etc.) that explain the factors behind the formation of long-run state debt level and economic policy measures accompanying state debt management. The paper also attempts to draw some lessons for the Hungarian state debt management in view of the 1990-2010 processes.

Lessons learned from the effect of tight monetary conditions and crises on corporate capital structure

The study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of tight monetary conditions, crisis on corporate capital structure, further creates a framework for analyzing their relation, as well as sheds light on the lessons learned and open research areas. The results highlight that the supply side of capital has an effect on corporate capital structure, though the analysis of this relation is scarce. However, the impact of tight monetary conditions on capital structure is analyzed by several studies, there is limited evidence on the financial policy and the development of financing mix during a crisis period. The impact of the 2007/08 crisis on the corporate capital structure and especially in case of firms with impaired access to external financing is scarce. The study also highlights our lack in understanding of the relation of crisis and capital structure in case of the CEE region.