The Socioeconomic Background of the Divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian Political Systems

The aim of this paper is to analyze the political, social and economic background of the divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian transitions. We focus on Belarus in order to find explanation for questions such as why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. On the theoretical framework of elite-sociology, we seek to determine whether the internal factors (as macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system and the structure of the political elite) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

Financial crisis and the change in the practice of applying common charge costs

The global financial crisis has not left the members of the EU untouched. Financial results have significantly dropped, businesses were folded in great numbers, the rate of employment decreased, social tension got fortified, and so did the national deficits in the budget in the majority of the countries. The decisive members of the community reacted fairly quickly to the challenges of the global economic crisis, and among the steps taken there were simultaneously ones to boost the economy and others to lower the expenses of the expenditure. The author examines what role was given to the steps in taxation policy as indirect regulating tools, and that how the decisions brought touch upon the previously issued harmonization strategy.

Fiscal adjustment and economic growth in the European Union

The current world economic crisis induced countries to launch wide-scale spending programmes all over the world. Member states of the European Union have not been an exception to this trend. While deficit spending may increase the aggregate demand, it can also accelerate indebtedness and make the required spending cuts politically risky later on. However, deficit financing is not a new phenomenon in the EU; it has been widely practiced in the last couple of decades. As the crisis seems to come to an end, countries with huge deficits should adopt exit strategies now, thereby reducing deficit and debt and reintroducing fiscal discipline, a requirement laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. Nevertheless, former adjustment processes can provide ample evidence for successful and politically viable fiscal consolidations. In certain cases, even economic activity started to accelerate as a response to the welldesigned adjustment measures. Based on the previous experiences of EU states, the aim of this paper is, therefore, to identify the conditions that may determine a fiscal consolidation to be successful in terms of a reduced debt ratio and a positive economic growth.

Megjegyzések Joseph Stiglitz és Amartya Sen "A gazdasági teljesítmények és a szociális haladás mérése" című jelentéséhez

A jelentés nem jöhetett volna soha jobbkor. A felkérés még 2008 februárjában történik. Akkor, amikor sok szakértő azt nyilatkozza, hogy a válságot Európa meg fogja úszni. Valószínűleg a megbízó, Nicolas Sárközy francia elnök sem előrelátóbb, de ösztönösen ráérez a problémára és a lehetőségre. Vagy okos tanácsadói javasolják. A válság mindenesetre még egyértelműbbé teszi, hogy statisztikai rendszerünk több szempontból is tökéletlen. A bizottság mandátuma eredetileg szerényebb, de az új események fényében tevékenységük felértékelődik. A rangos munkaközösség tagjai Joseph E. Stiglitz (Columbia Egyetem) és Amartya Sen (Harvard Egyetem) Nobel-díjasok, a testület koordinátorának Jean-Paul Fitoussi neves francia professzort kérik fel. Rajtuk kívül még 21 közismert szakértő vesz részt a munkában, főként amerikai és francia egyetemekről. A jelentést 2009. szeptember 14-én mutatják be egész napos konferencia keretében a Sorbonne egyetem aulájában.

A pénzügyi világválság néhány eddigi tanulsága I.

A tanulmány a jelenlegi pénzügyi és világgazdasági válság hátterét elemzi. Elsőként az észak-amerikai jelzáloghitel-piac vizsgálatán keresztül mutatja be a válság kiindulását és gyökereit, a jelzáloghitelek értékpapírosodására koncentrálva. A cikk bevezeti az árnyékbankrendszer fogalmát, majd a második részben azt bizonyítja, hogy ennek bukása felelős elsősorban a jelenlegi válság elhúzódásáért, illetve a reálszférába történő átgyűrűzéséért. A tanulmányt két részletben közöljük.

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "convergence criteria," used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

A comprehensive approach to the euro-area debt crisis

The euro area‘s sovereign debt crisis continues though significant steps have been taken to resolve it. This paper proposes a comprehensive solution to the crisis based on three pillars: a plan to restore banking sector soundness in the whole euro area, a resolution of sovereign debt crisis -including a revision of EU assistance facilities and a reduction of the Greek public debt- and a strategy to foster growth and competitiveness. The paper provides novel estimates and analysis focusing on the current situation of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use crosscountry growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Fiscal Federalism in Crisis: Lessons for Europe from the US

The euro area is facing crisis, while the US is not, though the overall fiscal situation and outlook is better in the euro area than in the US, and though the US faces serious state-level fiscal crises. A higher level of fiscal federalism would strengthen the euro area, but is not inevitable. Current fiscal reform proposals (strengthening of current rules, more policy coordination and an emergency financing mechanism) will if implemented result in some improvements. But implementation might be deficient or lack credibility, and could lead to disputes and carry a significant political risk. Introduction of a Eurobond covering up to 60 percent of member states’ GDP would bring about much greater levels of fiscal discipline than any other proposal, would create an attractive Eurobond market, and would deliver a strong message about the irreversible nature of European integration.

A bankközi jutalék (MIF) elő- és utóélete a bankkártyapiacon. A bankközi jutalék létező és nem létező versenyhatásai a Visa és a Mastercard ügyek

Az előadás röviden áttekinti a két bankkártyatársasággal szemben folytatott Bizottsági és magyar versenyügy tanulságait elsősorban közgazdasági szempontból elemezve azt a központi jelentőségű kérdést, hogy a bankközi jutalék létezésének, illetve az abban történő multilaterális megállapodásnak elméletileg milyen versenyhatásai lehetségesek, ill. melyek zárhatók ki. Egy logikai modell segítségével mutatom be, hogy mi a valódi szerepe a multilaterális bankközi jutaléknak a két kártyatársaság rendszernek működésében, majd az e modell alapján levonható következtetéseket ütköztetem a két fent említett eljárás megállapításaival. Néhány alapvető kérdésben álláspontom2 teljes mértékben ellentétes a két hatóság által kifejtettekkel.

Inventory investment and GDP characteristics in OECD countries

There are very few research studies on macroeconomic inventory behaviour of various countries. It is clear that macro inventories are the results of a large number of individual microdecisions. However, we believe that it is worth analysing how inventories develop in the individual countries and why we can see different tendencies. This paper is the newest piece in a series of studies on the above subject. We use the OECD database to analyse inventory trends between 1987 and 2004 in nine of the most developed economies of the world. Annual inventory investment data are used and their connections with other components of GDP expenditure (governmental and private consumption, investment in fixed assets and foreign trade balance as well as the annual growth rate of GDP) are examined by multi-variable statistical analysis. Conclusions include the steadily decreasing tendency of inventory fluctuations, the varying periods of higher and lower rates of inventory investments and the differences of main influencing factors by country.

Macroeconomic characteristics and inventory investment: a multi-country study

The paper is a new element in a series of studies analyzing macroeconomic inventory behavior by use of multi-country data. In this paper, seven hypotheses are tested with positive result. These hypotheses include subjects like relations of inventories with growth and with some other macroeconomic indicators of the use of GDP and the long-term tendencies of global inventory formations. Multivariate statistical analysis is used for evaluation.