Grexit

Az euróválság fő oka: az euró hibás konstrukciója és a nemzeti politikák kudarca. Görögország a válság, s benne a szuverénadósság-válság legnagyobb vesztese. A válságot társadalmi és morális tényezők súlyosbítják (adóelkerülés). Külön tényező a görög gazdaság alacsony integráltsági szintje. A pénzpiac az előzetes feltételezésekkel ellentétben nem fegyelmez, sőt csábít, majd utólag kíméletlenül büntet. A választás, hogy az olcsó pénzből egy ország rekonstruál és javítja a versenyképességét vagy politikai célból szavazatokat vásárol, nemzeti döntés. A mentőcsomag kritikus elemei deflációs megszorítások, amelyek késleltetik a kilábalást. 2015 elején talán lehetett volna olyan megoldásokat találni, hogy a görög kormány úgy köt kompromisszumot a hitelezőivel és eurózónabeli partnereivel, hogy a válság szélesebb európai megoldása irányában is sikerül előrelépni (adósságmérséklés), s közben választói várakozásait sem kell figyelmen kívül hagynia. A görög kormány nem ezt, hanem egy konfrontatív, külön nemzeti, görög megoldást választott. Ezzel otthon képes volt a népszerűségét fenntartani, de valamennyi partnerét magára haragította. A kompromiszszum így csak elhalasztotta a tényleges megoldást. A grexit továbbra sem zárható ki, de nem érdeke senkinek.

Designed for Patience. The Significance of International Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

A hatalmi viszonyok a világgazdaság és a katonai szektor a XXI. században = Power relations in the world economy and the military sector in 21st century

A bipoláris világrendszer megszűnése a XX. század utolsó évtizedében új helyzetet teremtett a globális politikai és gazdasági viszonyokban, ugyanakkor nem mellékesen a hadiiparban is. A szerző, szem előtt tartva a hatalmi viszonyok jövőbeli elkerülhetetlen átrendeződését, elsősorban a katonai szektor előtt álló, a XXI. századra előrevetíthető kihívásokat, lehetőségeket, a szektor jövőbeli pályáját tekinti át. A hadiiparral kapcsolatban indokolt a hidegháború utáni világ fegyverkezési helyzetének, fegyveres erőinek számbavétele csakúgy, mint a releváns elméleti keretek ismertetése, továbbá a fontos globális szereplők biztonságpolitikájának vizsgálata. A katonai szektor jelenének és jövőjének alapos elemzése nem nélkülözheti a katonai kiadások jelenlegi – a világgazdasági válság által befolyásolt – és a következő évtizedekben várható alakulásának vizsgálatát. Végül, de nem utolsó sorban a szerző áttekinti a XXI. századi haditechnikai forradalom már most látható és a jövőben valószínűsíthető vívmányait, a fontosabb haditechnikai tendenciákat, illetve elemzi a nemzetközi fegyverpiac helyzetét. __________________ The end of the Cold War led to a new situation in global political and economic affairs, as well as in the military sector. The author, taking into consideration the inevitable future power shifts, provides an overview of the challenges, possibilities and future paths of the military sector. Relevant issues include assessing the arms and armed forces of the post-Cold War era, as well as the analysis of theoretical frameworks and the security policies of the important global actors. Understanding the present and the future of the military sector is not possible without the thorough analysis of military expenditures and their likely future trends. The author also overviews the outcomes of the 21st century revolution in military technology and analyses the global arms market.

Global economics governance in the post-crisis world

The Great Crisis has made it clear once again that avoiding the derailment of globalization of trade and finance and the protecting the globe from fragmentation call for enhanced global cooperation and an efficient, flexible and coherent system of global governance. Three interconnected levels (national, regional, and global) comprise the system of global governance. This paper is dealing with some of the main issues of global economic governance in the post-crisis world. It reveals that the turbulence and the distress of the world of the early 21st century have deeper roots and broader sources than the crisis. Global governance therefore has to respond much broader set of challenges in comprehensive framework and long term perspective.

The Socioeconomic Background of the Divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian Political Systems

The aim of this paper is to analyze the political, social and economic background of the divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian transitions. We focus on Belarus in order to find explanation for questions such as why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. On the theoretical framework of elite-sociology, we seek to determine whether the internal factors (as macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system and the structure of the political elite) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

State Fragility and International Development Cooperation

Over the past few years addressing state fragility in the third world has become an important priority in international development cooperation. However, it seems that the international donor community has so far not been able to develop adequate instruments for dealing with the problems posed by state failure. We see two reasons for this: (i) there is growing recognition within the donor community that the lack of absorptive capacity, or bad economic policies in the partner country can actually make aid counterproductive, even harmful; and (ii) it is very difficult to manage effective development cooperation with weak governments. Channelling aid through NGOs, or giving limited aid in the form of capacity-building is clearly not sufficient to solve the problems fragile states face.

Az átalakuló globális pénzügyi szabályozórendszer kérdései = Dilemmas of the changing global financial regulation system

Erősődő igény van a jelenlegi sokoldalú nemzetközi felügyeleti rendszer reformjára úgy, hogy az a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák nemzetközi hatásait is figyelembe vegye. Ehhez át kell reformálni a jelenlegi globális pénzügyi szabályozási rendszert, de ki kell alakítani a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák egymásra hatásának koordinációját is. Ide tartozik a globális külső sokkok csillapítására szolgáló anti-ciklikus finanszírozás, a nemzetközi adózási együttműködés fokozása, a nemzetközi adósságfinanszírozás tökéletesítése, vagy a globális fizetésieszköz-tartalékok és a fizetési rendszer viszonya. Ez utóbbi területen az SDR kiterjedtebb használatának feltételeit kell kimunkálni. A jelenlegi globális intézmények – WTO, Nemzetközi Valutaalap, Világbank – alapos megújítása elkerülhetetlen. A globális gazdasági koordináció intézményi kereteinek kidolgozása viszont még várat magára. A G20-ak csoportja – bár fontos reformokat kezdeményezett –, nem tekinthető a világgazdasági egyensúlytalanságok megoldása letéteményesének. A cél csak olyan globális intézményi struktúra lehet, amely egyaránt képes a világ nagy számú gazdaságai közötti koordinációs feladatok megoldására, s a döntések végrehajtásának kikényszerítésére. / === / The present multilateral international surveillance system needs to be reformed with an eye on international repercussions of national economic policies. The present global financial architecture, the coordination of interplays of national economic policies must be modified. An anti-cyclical financing capable of absorbing global external shocks, strengthening of international tax cooperation, improving international debt financing or the relations between global financial reserves and the global payment system might be part and parcel of this process. A more extended use of SDR could be worked out. Reforms of the present global institutions – the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank – cannot be avoided any further. Institutional frameworks of global economic coordination mechanism have still not been worked out. The Group of 20 (G-20) cannot be seen as the sole player in fighting world economic disequlibria. A global institutional system is envisaged, which is able to implement economic coordination among national economic units and to enforce the implementation of decisions taken. At present there is no global institution dealing with coherence and consistency of global issues. Reforming present institutions and/or designing new ones are possible options. The basis for such an international coordination must involve general acceptance of principles, transparent implementation, and enforcement of decisions taken.

International ethics and globalization

In the inherently anarchic international system the validity of moral principles is weakening. To overcome anarchy global governance is needed. It means efficient international institutions, but also pressures from the global civil society and the self-regulation of business. Multinational firms have the duty of cooperating in governance systems. They also have the duty of reconciling in their activity the two, equally legitimate claims of universalism and cultural relativism; i.e., applying universal moral principles and respecting local moral norms. Finally, multinationals must be guided by the principle of enhanced responsibility. However, although globalizing efforts are important in overcoming international anarchy and coordinating the protection of global commons, strong arguments support the notion that economic globalization does not promote sustainable development. Some form of localization of the economy is certainly needed. The challenge is to find a way towards more global governance with less economic globalization.

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Impacts of EU Accession on Hungarian Primary and Processed Agricultural Trade

In 2004, Hungary joined the European Union (EU) along with nine other Central and Eastern European Countries, causing several changes in the field of agriculture. One of the major changes was the transformation of national agri-food trade. The aim of the paper is to analyse the effects of EU accession on the Hungarian primary and processed agri-food trade, especially considering revealed comparative advantages, by using recent data. Results suggest that EU accession raised the intensity of trade contacts but had a negative impact on trade balance. Nominal values of both exports and imports increased after 2004, however, Hungarian agriculture is increasingly based on raw material export and processed food import. It also turned out that revealed comparative advantages of Hungarian primary agri-food products in EU15 remained almost constant after accession, while comparative advantages of processed agri-food products has been gradually increasing by time and even reached the satisfactory level in some cases. From the policy perspective, it is apparent that there is a need for deeper structural reforms of the Hungarian agricultural and food sector is the future.

Hungarian International Development Cooperation: Context, Stakeholders and Performance

This paper explores the domestic and international context of Hungary's emerging international development policy. Specifically, it looks at three factors that may influence how this policy operates: membership in the European Union (EU) and potential ‘Europeanization’, Hungary's wider foreign policy strategy, and the influence of domestic stakeholders. In order to uncover how these factors affect the country's international development policy, semi-structured interviews were carried out with the main stakeholders. The main conclusions are: (1) While accession to the EU did play a crucial role in restarting Hungary's international development policy, the integration has had little effect since then; (2) international development policy seems to serve mainly Hungary's regional strategic foreign policy and economic interests, and not its global development goals; and (3) although all the domestic development stakeholders are rather weak, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) still seems to play a dominating role. Convergence with European requirements and best practices is, therefore, clearly hindered by foreign policy interests and also by the weakness of non- governmental stakeholders.

Governance in the European Union - Applying the "trilemma of global politics"

The European Union with its sophisticated institutional system is the most important regional integration on Earth. This tight form of economic integration converges to the level that Dani Rodrik calls hyperglobalization in his model, the political trilemma of globalisation. In our paper we develop the mentioned model and then we apply it to the case of the European Integration. We argue that if we want to maintain the deep integration among member states in the EU we have to pass more and more functions of the nation states to the federation level. In case of the EMU that means that federal fiscal policy is needed which could lead to multi-speed Europe considering new member states’ reluctance to give up their specific institutions.

A környezethez való jog és a Kiotói Jegyzőkönyv (Right to environment and Kyoto Protocol)

A Kiotói Jegyzőkönyv az 1992-ben Rio de Janeiro-ban megrendezésre került Környezet és Fejlődés Világkonferenciáján elfogadott nyilatkozatának 1997-ben aláírt kiegészítő jegyzőkönyve. A Kiotói Jegyzőkönyvben minden aláíró ország vállalta, hogy egy bizonyos százalékos arányban csökkenti országában a kibocsátott üvegházhatást okozó gázok mennyiségét, ezáltal mérsékelve a globális felmelegedés előrehaladtát. A Jegyzőkönyvhöz az Egyesült Államok és több fejlő ország, mint Kína vagy India gazdasági megfontolásból másrészt politikai szűklátókörűségből nem csatlakozott. Ez azonban a komoly aggályokat vet fel azzal kapcsolatban, hogy a környezetvédelmi szabályokat betartó államok erőfeszítései önmagában elegendőek lesznek-e a globális felmelegedés megállítására, de legalábbis csökkentésére. _____________ The Kyoto Protocol signed in the Japanese city in Kyoto in 1997 is a supplemental document to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development organized in Rio de Janeiro. In the Kyoto Protocol individual countries have mandatory emissions targets for the greenhouse gases they must meet to slow down global warming. The United States of America, and several developing countries, as China and India did not yet joined the Protocol partly because of economic reasons and other ways because of narrow-minded political interests. This brings up serious doubt weather the efforts of the parties of the Protocol can make any change in the recent global processes.

Monetary efficacy in the community level

Hypothesis of the paper is that the monetary room for manoeuvre in the European Community is determined by the institutional and strategic characteristics of the ECB, moreover the financial market environment composed by multi-state community. The methodology of the paper is built on the evaluation of the decision making and strategy of ECB as institutional aspect, and the monetary transmission in national financial markets. In policy evaluation, the monetary targeting is surveyed through HICP, monetary base, central bank rates, exchange rates and treatment of price impacts. The transmission is examined through analysis of structure of the member state’s financial markets.

International cooperation against climate change: institutions, policies and their efficiency

In the 20th century nature of the world economy has started to change significantly, and the former state-centric constellation disappeared. Several development factors that induced the change are still active and nowadays we live in a much different world. The world economy consists of transnational networks; these complicated systems have a great impact on the world of states. The transnational actors’ (multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations etc) influence became very essential as they are able to mobilize the society, have high expertise (think tanks), but it is also important to note their financial strength and moral effects (norm entrepreneurs).