Conceptual Foundations of Construction of the Models and Procedures for Prediction of the Avalanche-dangerous Situations Initiation

The conceptual foundations of the models and procedures for prediction of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation are considered. The interpretation model for analysis of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation based on the definition of probabilities of correspondence of studied parameters to the probabilistic distributions of avalanche-dangerous or avalanche non-dangerous situations is offered. The possibility to apply such a model to the real data is considered. The main approaches to the use of multiple representations for the avalanche dangerous situations initiation analysis are generalized.

Uncertainty and Fuzzy Sets: Classifying the Situation

The so called “Plural Uncertainty Model” is considered, in which statistical, maxmin, interval and Fuzzy model of uncertainty are embedded. For the last case external and internal contradictions of the theory are investigated and the modified definition of the Fuzzy Sets is proposed to overcome the troubles of the classical variant of Fuzzy Subsets by L. Zadeh. The general variants of logit- and probit- regression are the model of the modified Fuzzy Sets. It is possible to say about observations within the modification of the theory. The conception of the “situation” is proposed within modified Fuzzy Theory and the classifying problem is considered. The algorithm of the classification for the situation is proposed being the analogue of the statistical MLM(maximum likelihood method). The example related possible observing the distribution from the collection of distribution is considered.

Situation Centers in Modern State

Development of information technologies and hardware-software means make it possible to integrate various engineering solutions of technical, technological and information nature within the framework of the single system of implementation. The situation center (SC) represents the complex of hardware-software means for the personal and team work of the managers group. Its main task consists in supporting decision-making on technical and strategic management solutions based on visualization and analytical procession of information. The SC ensures the support of preparation and decision making in particular: − elaboration of the versions and recommendations taking into account various conditions and limitations; − choice or creation of the situation analysis model; − structurization of the problems and definition of the most informative parameters; − monitoring of socio-economical and socio-political information.