The Value of Knowing that You Do Not Know

The value of knowing about data availability and system accessibility is analyzed through theoretical models of Information Economics. When a user places an inquiry for information, it is important for the user to learn whether the system is not accessible or the data is not available, rather than not have any response. In reality, various outcomes can be provided by the system: nothing will be displayed to the user (e.g., a traffic light that does not operate, a browser that keeps browsing, a telephone that does not answer); a random noise will be displayed (e.g., a traffic light that displays random signals, a browser that provides disorderly results, an automatic voice message that does not clarify the situation); a special signal indicating that the system is not operating (e.g., a blinking amber indicating that the traffic light is down, a browser responding that the site is unavailable, a voice message regretting to tell that the service is not available). This article develops a model to assess the value of the information for the user in such situations by employing the information structure model prevailing in Information Economics. Examples related to data accessibility in centralized and in distributed systems are provided for illustration.

Boundary-Value Problems for almost Nonlinear Singularly Perturbed Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

A boundary-value problems for almost nonlinear singularly perturbed systems of ordinary differential equations are considered. An asymptotic solution is constructed under some assumption and using boundary functions and generalized inverse matrix and projectors.

A Differential Game Described by a Hyperbolic System

An antagonistic differential game of hyperbolic type with a separable linear vector pay-off function is considered. The main result is the description of all ε-Slater saddle points consisting of program strategies, program ε-Slater maximins and minimaxes for each ε ∈ R^N > for this game. To this purpose, the considered differential game is reduced to find the optimal program strategies of two multicriterial problems of hyperbolic type. The application of approximation enables us to relate these problems to a problem of optimal program control, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, with a scalar pay-off function. It is found that the result of this problem is not changed, if the players use positional or program strategies. For the considered differential game, it is interesting that the ε-Slater saddle points are not equivalent and there exist two ε-Slater saddle points for which the values of all components of the vector pay-off function at one of them are greater than the respective components of the other ε-saddle point.

A Cauchy Integral Related to a Robot-safety Device System

We introduce a robot-safety device system attended by two different repairmen. The twin system is characterized by the natural feature of cold standby and by an admissible “risky” state. In order to analyse the random behaviour of the entire system (robot, safety device, repair facility) we employ a stochastic process endowed with probability measures satisfying general Hokstad-type differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions, characterized by a Cauchy-type integral defined as a Cauchy principal value in double sense. An application of the Sokhotski-Plemelj formulae determines the long-run availability of the robot-safety device. Finally, we consider the particular but important case of deterministic repair.

The Computer System for the Estimation of the Realizability of the Crew Activity Algorithms

When designing specification on-board algorithm (the algorithm, realized on on-board digital computing machine, and algorithm to activity of the crew necessary to conduct the estimation their realizing. Presented computer system allows in interactive mode with user to value the temporary expenseses of the operator on processes decision making and their realizing, participations it in process of the spying.

Operational Methods in the Environment of a Computer Algebra System

This article presents the principal results of the doctoral thesis “Direct Operational Methods in the Environment of a Computer Algebra System” by Margarita Spiridonova (Institute of mathematics and Informatics, BAS), successfully defended before the Specialised Academic Council for Informatics and Mathematical Modelling on 23 March, 2009.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.