Extreme Situations Prediction by MultidimenSional Heterogeneous Time Series Using Logical Decision Functions

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

Signal Processing under Active Monitoring

This paper describes a method of signal preprocessing under active monitoring. Suppose we want to solve the inverse problem of getting the response of a medium to one powerful signal, which is equivalent to obtaining the transmission function of the medium, but do not have an opportunity to conduct such an experiment (it might be too expensive or harmful for the environment). Practically the problem can be reduced to obtaining the transmission function of the medium. In this case we can conduct a series of experiments of relatively low power and superpose the response signals. However, this method is conjugated with considerable loss of information (especially in the high frequency domain) due to fluctuations of the phase, the frequency and the starting time of each individual experiment. The preprocessing technique presented in this paper allows us to substantially restore the response of the medium and consequently to find a better estimate for the transmission function. This technique is based on expanding the initial signal into the system of orthogonal functions.

Sensitivity and Bias within the Binary Signal Detection Theory, BSDT

Similar to classic Signal Detection Theory (SDT), recent optimal Binary Signal Detection Theory (BSDT) and based on it Neural Network Assembly Memory Model (NNAMM) can successfully reproduce Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves although BSDT/NNAMM parameters (intensity of cue and neuron threshold) and classic SDT parameters (perception distance and response bias) are essentially different. In present work BSDT/NNAMM optimal likelihood and posterior probabilities are analytically analyzed and used to generate ROCs and modified (posterior) mROCs, optimal overall likelihood and posterior. It is shown that for the description of basic discrimination experiments in psychophysics within the BSDT a ‘neural space’ can be introduced where sensory stimuli as neural codes are represented and decision processes are defined, the BSDT’s isobias curves can simultaneously be interpreted as universal psychometric functions satisfying the Neyman-Pearson objective, the just noticeable difference (jnd) can be defined and interpreted as an atom of experience, and near-neutral values of biases are observers’ natural choice. The uniformity or no-priming hypotheses, concerning the ‘in-mind’ distribution of false-alarm probabilities during ROC or overall probability estimations, is introduced. The BSDT’s and classic SDT’s sensitivity, bias, their ROC and decision spaces are compared.