Forecasting Problems for Economic Macroparameters

The article deals with problems of forecasting of economic macroparameters on the basis of the principle of «subjective multideterminism», i.e. an expert account of maximal amount of interrelated «objective» and «subjective» causes. A description is given of the system of support of decision-making in forecasting the level of inflation and gross domestic product on the basis of the tree solution method.

Detection of Logical-and-Probabilistic Correlation in Time Series

An application of the heterogeneous variables system prediction method to solving the time series analysis problem with respect to the sample size is considered in this work. It is created a logical-and-probabilistic correlation from the logical decision function class. Two ways is considered. When the information about event is kept safe in the process, and when it is kept safe in depending process.

Information Supply of Geo-information Systems for the Forecasting Problem of the Avalanche Danger

This article is dedicated to the vital problem of the creation of GIS-systems for the monitoring, prognostication and control of technogenic natural catastrophes. The decrease of risks, the protection of economic objects, averting the human victims, caused by the dynamism of avalanche centers, depends on the effectiveness of the prognostication procedures of avalanche danger used. In the article the structure of a prognostication subsystem information input is developed and the technology for the complex forecast of avalanche-prone situations is proposed.

Minimization of Reactive Probabilistic Automata

The problem of finite automata minimization is important for software and hardware designing. Different types of automata are used for modeling systems or machines with finite number of states. The limitation of number of states gives savings in resources and time. In this article we show specific type of probabilistic automata: the reactive probabilistic finite automata with accepting states (in brief the reactive probabilistic automata), and definitions of languages accepted by it. We present definition of bisimulation relation for automata's states and define relation of indistinguishableness of automata states, on base of which we could effectuate automata minimization. Next we present detailed algorithm reactive probabilistic automata’s minimization with determination of its complexity and analyse example solved with help of this algorithm.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Построение Логико-Вероятностных Моделей Временных Рядов с Использованием Цепей Маркова

The method of logic and probabilistic models constructing for multivariate heterogeneous time series is offered. There are some important properties of these models, e.g. universality. In this paper also discussed the logic and probabilistic models distinctive features in comparison with hidden Markov processes. The early proposed time series forecasting algorithm is tested on applied task.

Local-Median Method of Forecasting for Regression Time Series under Outliers

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M20, 62-07, 62J05, 62P20.

Some Probabilistic Results in a Bisexual Branching Process with Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Risk of Forecasting for Autoregressive Time Series with Missing Values

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M20, 62M10, 62-07.

Probabilistic Approach to Design of Large Antenna Arrays

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 78A50

Probabilistic Models in Cryptography, Coding Theory and Tests for PRNG

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 94A29, 94B70

Weak and Semi Compatible Maps in Probabilistic Metric Space Using Implicit Relation

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 54H25, 47H10.

Probabilistic Approach to the Neumann Problem for a Symmetric Operator

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J45, 60J50, 35Cxx; Secondary 31Cxx.