5 resultados para Markov models
em Bulgarian Digital Mathematics Library at IMI-BAS
Resumo:
Computer networks are a critical factor for the performance of a modern company. Managing networks is as important as managing any other aspect of the company’s performance and security. There are many tools and appliances for monitoring the traffic and analyzing the network flow security. They use different approaches and rely on a variety of characteristics of the network flows. Network researchers are still working on a common approach for security baselining that might enable early watch alerts. This research focuses on the network security models, particularly the Denial-of-Services (DoS) attacks mitigation, based on a network flow analysis using the flows measurements and the theory of Markov models. The content of the paper comprises the essentials of the author’s doctoral thesis.
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2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K15, 60K20, 60G20,60J75, 60J80, 60J85, 60-08, 90B15.
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Key words: Markov-modulated queues, waiting time, heavy traffic.
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Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.
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2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80.