Models of Alternating Renewal Process at Discrete Time

We study a class of models used with success in the modelling of climatological sequences. These models are based on the notion of renewal. At first, we examine the probabilistic aspects of these models to afterwards study the estimation of their parameters and their asymptotical properties, in particular the consistence and the normality. We will discuss for applications, two particular classes of alternating renewal processes at discrete time. The first class is defined by laws of sojourn time that are translated negative binomial laws and the second class, suggested by Green is deduced from alternating renewal process in continuous time with sojourn time laws which are exponential laws with parameters α^0 and α^1 respectively.

Reliability for Beta Models

In the area of stress-strength models there has been a large amount of work as regards estimation of the reliability R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) when X1 and X2 are independent random variables belonging to the same univariate family of distributions. The algebraic form for R = Pr(X2 < X1 ) has been worked out for the majority of the well-known distributions including Normal, uniform, exponential, gamma, weibull and pareto. However, there are still many other distributions for which the form of R is not known. We have identified at least some 30 distributions with no known form for R. In this paper we consider some of these distributions and derive the corresponding forms for the reliability R. The calculations involve the use of various special functions.

Comparative Analysis of Viscoelastic Models Involving Fractional Derivatives of Different Orders

Mathematics Subject Classification: 74D05, 26A33

Financial Decisions via Methods of Guaranteed Control Theory

AMS subject classification: 93C95, 90A09.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.