The System of Quality Prediction on the Basis of a Fuzzy Data and Psychography of the Experts

The system of development unstable processes prediction is given. It is based on a decision-tree method. The processing technique of the expert information is offered. It is indispensable for constructing and processing by a decision-tree method. In particular data is set in the fuzzy form. The original search algorithms of optimal paths of development of the forecast process are described. This one is oriented to processing of trees of large dimension with vector estimations of arcs.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Using Sensitivity as a Method for Ranking the Test Cases Classified by Binary Decision Trees

Usually, data mining projects that are based on decision trees for classifying test cases will use the probabilities provided by these decision trees for ranking classified test cases. We have a need for a better method for ranking test cases that have already been classified by a binary decision tree because these probabilities are not always accurate and reliable enough. A reason for this is that the probability estimates computed by existing decision tree algorithms are always the same for all the different cases in a particular leaf of the decision tree. This is only one reason why the probability estimates given by decision tree algorithms can not be used as an accurate means of deciding if a test case has been correctly classified. Isabelle Alvarez has proposed a new method that could be used to rank the test cases that were classified by a binary decision tree [Alvarez, 2004]. In this paper we will give the results of a comparison of different ranking methods that are based on the probability estimate, the sensitivity of a particular case or both.

Decision Trees for Applicability of Evolution Rules in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of active evolution rules subset inside each membrane of the P system. But, to establish the active evolution rules subset, it is required the previous calculation of useful and applicable rules. Hence, computation of applicable evolution rules subset is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. The work presented here shows advantages of incorporating decision trees in the evolution rules applicability algorithm. In order to it, necessary formalizations will be presented to consider this as a classification problem, the method to obtain the necessary decision tree automatically generated and the new algorithm for applicability based on it.

A Framework for Fast Classification Algorithms

Today, due to globalization of the world the size of data set is increasing, it is necessary to discover the knowledge. The discovery of knowledge can be typically in the form of association rules, classification rules, clustering, discovery of frequent episodes and deviation detection. Fast and accurate classifiers for large databases are an important task in data mining. There is growing evidence that integrating classification and association rules mining, classification approaches based on heuristic, greedy search like decision tree induction. Emerging associative classification algorithms have shown good promises on producing accurate classifiers. In this paper we focus on performance of associative classification and present a parallel model for classifier building. For classifier building some parallel-distributed algorithms have been proposed for decision tree induction but so far no such work has been reported for associative classification.

Decision–making Support Systems as Personal Intellectual Device of a Decision–maker

The problems of the cognitive development of subject “perception” are discussed in the thesis: from the object being studied and means of action till the single system “subject – modus operandi of subject – object”. Problems of increasing adequacy of models of “live” nature are analyzed. The concept of developing decisionmaking support systems as expert systems to decision-making support systems as personal device of a decisionmaker is discussed. The experience of the development of qualitative prediction on the basis of polyvalent dependences, represented by a decision tree, which realizes the concept of “plural subjective determinism”, is analyzed. The examples of applied systems prediction of ecological-economic and social processes are given. The ways of their development are discussed.

Evaluating Misclassification Probability Using Empirical Risk

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

An Information Model for Pension Fund Management

In this paper the issues of Ukrainian new three-level pension system are discussed. First, the paper presents the mathematical model that allows calculating the optimal size of contributions to the non-state pension fund. Next, the non-state pension fund chooses an Asset Management Company. To do so it is proposed to use an approach based on Kohonen networks to classify asset management companies that work in Ukrainian market. Further, when the asset management company is chosen, it receives the pension contributions of the participants of the non-pension fund. Asset Management Company has to invest these contributions profitably. This paper proposes an approach for choosing the most profitable investment project using decision trees. The new pension system has been lawfully ratified only four years ago and is still developing, that is why this paper is very important.

The Inflation Index Prognosis Based on the Method of Decision-Marking “Tree”

The description of the support system for marking decision in terms of prognosing the inflation level based on the multifactor dependence represented by the decision – marking “tree” is given in the paper. The interrelation of factors affecting the inflation level – economic, financial, political, socio-demographic ones, is considered. The perspectives for developing the method of decision – marking “tree”, and pointing out the so- called “narrow” spaces and further analysis of possible scenarios for inflation level prognosing in particular, are defined.

A Distance-Based Method for Attribute Reduction in Incomplete Decision Systems

There are limitations in recent research undertaken on attribute reduction in incomplete decision systems. In this paper, we propose a distance-based method for attribute reduction in an incomplete decision system. In addition, we prove theoretically that our method is more effective than some other methods.

Forecasting Problems for Economic Macroparameters

The article deals with problems of forecasting of economic macroparameters on the basis of the principle of «subjective multideterminism», i.e. an expert account of maximal amount of interrelated «objective» and «subjective» causes. A description is given of the system of support of decision-making in forecasting the level of inflation and gross domestic product on the basis of the tree solution method.

Case-based Reasoning Method for Real-time Expert Diagnostics Systems

The method of case-based reasoning for a solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems (IDSS) is considered. Special attention is drawn to case library structure for real-time IDSS (RT IDSS) and algorithm of k-nearest neighbors type. This work was supported by RFBR.

Comparative Analysis: A Feasible Software Engineering Method

The reasonable choice is a critical success factor for decision- making in the field of software engineering (SE). A case-driven comparative analysis has been introduced and a procedure for its systematic application has been suggested. The paper describes how the proposed method can be built in a general framework for SE activities. Some examples of experimental versions of the framework are brie y presented.

Operating Model of Knowledge Quantum Engineering for Decision-Making in Conditions of Indeterminacy

The operating model of knowledge quantum engineering for identification and prognostic decision- making in conditions of α-indeterminacy is suggested in the article. The synthesized operating model solves three basic tasks: Аt-task to formalize tk-knowledge; Вt-task to recognize (identify) objects according to observed results; Сt-task to extrapolate (prognosticate) the observed results. Operating derivation of identification and prognostic decisions using authentic different-level algorithmic knowledge quantum (using tRAKZ-method) assumes synthesis of authentic knowledge quantum database (BtkZ) using induction operator as a system of implicative laws, and then using deduction operator according to the observed tk-knowledge and BtkZ a derivation of identification or prognostic decisions in a form of new tk-knowledge.

Application of the Heterogeneous System Prediction Method to Pattern Recognition Problem

* This work was financially supported by RFBR-04-01-00858.