Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

Improved robust control of nonlinear stochastic systems using uncertain models

We introduce a technique for quantifying and then exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control systems. The approach is suboptimal though robust and relies upon the approximation of the forward and inverse plant models by neural networks, which also estimate the intrinsic uncertainty. Sampling from the resulting Gaussian distributions of the inversion based neurocontroller allows us to introduce a control law which is demonstrably more robust than traditional adaptive controllers.

A novel approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in stochastic control systems

We consider an inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems of uncertain nonlinear systems. Classical approaches do not use uncertainty information in the neural network models. In this paper we show how we can exploit knowledge of this uncertainty to our advantage by developing a novel robust inverse control method. Simulations on a nonlinear uncertain second order system illustrate the approach.

Robust control of nonlinear stochastic systems by modelling conditional distributions of control signals

We introduce a novel inversion-based neuro-controller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems that could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. In this work a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained based on importance sampling from these distributions. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The performance of the new algorithm is illustrated through simulations with example systems.

Benchmarking for information systems management using issues framework studies:cContent and methodology

As a means of benchmarking their position and assisting with anticipating an uncertain future, the identification of critical information systems (IS) management issues frameworks is becoming an increasingly important research task for both academics and industrialists. This paper provides a description and summary of previous work on identifying IS issues frameworks by reviewing 20 research investigations in terms of what they studied and how they were conducted. It also suggests some possible directions and methodologies for future research. The summary and suggestions for further work are applicable for issues framework research in the IS management field as well as in other business and management areas.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Dynamic decision networks for decision-making in self-adaptive systems:a case study

Bayesian decision theory is increasingly applied to support decision-making processes under environmental variability and uncertainty. Researchers from application areas like psychology and biomedicine have applied these techniques successfully. However, in the area of software engineering and speci?cally in the area of self-adaptive systems (SASs), little progress has been made in the application of Bayesian decision theory. We believe that techniques based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful for systems that dynamically adapt themselves at runtime to a changing environment, which is usually uncertain. In this paper, we discuss the case for the use of BNs, speci?cally Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs), to support the decision-making of self-adaptive systems. We present how such a probabilistic model can be used to support the decision making in SASs and justify its applicability. We have applied our DDN-based approach to the case of an adaptive remote data mirroring system. We discuss results, implications and potential bene?ts of the DDN to enhance the development and operation of self-adaptive systems, by providing mechanisms to cope with uncertainty and automatically make the best decision.

Agile or adaptable? Finding a paradigm for an uncertain world

This paper looks at the way in which, over recent years, paradigms for manufacturing management have evolved as a result of changing economic and environmental circumstances. The lean production concept, devised during the 1980s, proved robust only until the end of the bubble economy in Japan caused firms to re-examine the underlying principles of the lean production paradigm and redesign their production systems to suit the changing circumstances they were facing. Since that time a plethora of new concepts have emerged, most of which have been based on improving the way that firms are able to respond to the uncertainties of the new environment in which they have found themselves operating. The main question today is whether firms should be agile or adaptable. Both concepts imply a measure of responsiveness, but recent changes in the nature of the uncertainties have heightened the debate about what strategies should be adopted in the future.

Enhancing the performance of intelligent control systems in the face of higher levels of complexity and uncertainty

Modern advances in technology have led to more complex manufacturing processes whose success centres on the ability to control these processes with a very high level of accuracy. Plant complexity inevitably leads to poor models that exhibit a high degree of parametric or functional uncertainty. The situation becomes even more complex if the plant to be controlled is characterised by a multivalued function or even if it exhibits a number of modes of behaviour during its operation. Since an intelligent controller is expected to operate and guarantee the best performance where complexity and uncertainty coexist and interact, control engineers and theorists have recently developed new control techniques under the framework of intelligent control to enhance the performance of the controller for more complex and uncertain plants. These techniques are based on incorporating model uncertainty. The newly developed control algorithms for incorporating model uncertainty are proven to give more accurate control results under uncertain conditions. In this paper, we survey some approaches that appear to be promising for enhancing the performance of intelligent control systems in the face of higher levels of complexity and uncertainty.