Improved robust control of nonlinear stochastic systems using uncertain models

We introduce a technique for quantifying and then exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control systems. The approach is suboptimal though robust and relies upon the approximation of the forward and inverse plant models by neural networks, which also estimate the intrinsic uncertainty. Sampling from the resulting Gaussian distributions of the inversion based neurocontroller allows us to introduce a control law which is demonstrably more robust than traditional adaptive controllers.

The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

Agile or adaptable? Finding a paradigm for an uncertain world

This paper looks at the way in which, over recent years, paradigms for manufacturing management have evolved as a result of changing economic and environmental circumstances. The lean production concept, devised during the 1980s, proved robust only until the end of the bubble economy in Japan caused firms to re-examine the underlying principles of the lean production paradigm and redesign their production systems to suit the changing circumstances they were facing. Since that time a plethora of new concepts have emerged, most of which have been based on improving the way that firms are able to respond to the uncertainties of the new environment in which they have found themselves operating. The main question today is whether firms should be agile or adaptable. Both concepts imply a measure of responsiveness, but recent changes in the nature of the uncertainties have heightened the debate about what strategies should be adopted in the future.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

Distribution network reconfiguration validation with uncertain loads - network configuration determination and application

Automatic load transfer (ALT) on the 11 kV network is the process by which circuit breakers on the network are switched to form open points in order to feed load from different primary substations. Some of the potential benefits that may be gained from dynamically using ALT include maximising utilisation of existing assets, voltage regulation and reduced losses. One of the key issues, that has yet to be properly addressed in published research, is how to validate that the modelled benefits really exist. On an 11 kV distribution network where the load is continually changing and the load on each distribution substation is unlikely to be monitored - reduction in losses from moving the normally open point is particularly difficult to prove. This study proposes a method to overcome this problem and uses measured primary feeder data from two parts of the Western Power Distribution 11 kV Network under different configurations. The process of choosing the different configurations is based on a heuristic modelling method of locating minimum voltages to help reduce losses.