A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

A two-stage model of orientation integration for Battenberg-modulated micropatterns

The visual system pools information from local samples to calculate textural properties. We used a novel stimulus to investigate how signals are combined to improve estimates of global orientation. Stimuli were 29 × 29 element arrays of 4 c/deg log Gabors, spaced 1° apart. A proportion of these elements had a coherent orientation (horizontal/vertical) with the remainder assigned random orientations. The observer's task was to identify the global orientation. The spatial configuration of the signal was modulated by a checkerboard pattern of square checks containing potential signal elements. The other locations contained either randomly oriented elements (''noise check'') or were blank (''blank check''). The distribution of signal elements was manipulated by varying the size and location of the checks within a fixed-diameter stimulus. An ideal detector would only pool responses from potential signal elements. Humans did this for medium check sizes and for large check sizes when a signal was presented in the fovea. For small check sizes, however, the pooling occurred indiscriminately over relevant and irrelevant locations. For these check sizes, thresholds for the noise check and blank check conditions were similar, suggesting that the limiting noise is not induced by the response to the noise elements. The results are described by a model that filters the stimulus at the potential target orientations and then combines the signals over space in two stages. The first is a mandatory integration of local signals over a fixed area, limited by internal noise at each location. The second is a taskdependent combination of the outputs from the first stage. © 2014 ARVO.

Binocular interaction:Contrast matching and contrast discrimination are predicted by the same model

How do signals from the 2 eyes combine and interact? Our recent work has challenged earlier schemes in which monocular contrast signals are subject to square-law transduction followed by summation across eyes and binocular gain control. Much more successful was a new 'two-stage' model in which the initial transducer was almost linear and contrast gain control occurred both pre- and post-binocular summation. Here we extend that work by: (i) exploring the two-dimensional stimulus space (defined by left- and right-eye contrasts) more thoroughly, and (ii) performing contrast discrimination and contrast matching tasks for the same stimuli. Twenty-five base-stimuli made from 1 c/deg patches of horizontal grating, were defined by the factorial combination of 5 contrasts for the left eye (0.3-32%) with five contrasts for the right eye (0.3-32%). Other than in contrast, the gratings in the two eyes were identical. In a 2IFC discrimination task, the base-stimuli were masks (pedestals), where the contrast increment was presented to one eye only. In a matching task, the base-stimuli were standards to which observers matched the contrast of either a monocular or binocular test grating. In the model, discrimination depends on the local gradient of the observer's internal contrast-response function, while matching equates the magnitude (rather than gradient) of response to the test and standard. With all model parameters fixed by previous work, the two-stage model successfully predicted both the discrimination and the matching data and was much more successful than linear or quadratic binocular summation models. These results show that performance measures and perception (contrast discrimination and contrast matching) can be understood in the same theoretical framework for binocular contrast vision. © 2007 VSP.

Interocular masking and summation indicate two stages of divisive contrast gain control

Our understanding of early spatial vision owes much to contrast masking and summation paradigms. In particular, the deep region of facilitation at low mask contrasts is thought to indicate a rapidly accelerating contrast transducer (eg a square-law or greater). In experiment 1, we tapped an early stage of this process by measuring monocular and binocular thresholds for patches of 1 cycle deg-1 sine-wave grating. Threshold ratios were around 1.7, implying a nearly linear transducer with an exponent around 1.3. With this form of transducer, two previous models (Legge, 1984 Vision Research 24 385 - 394; Meese et al, 2004 Perception 33 Supplement, 41) failed to fit the monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking functions measured in experiment 2. However, a new model with two-stages of divisive gain control fits the data very well. Stage 1 incorporates nearly linear monocular transducers (to account for the high level of binocular summation and slight dichoptic facilitation), and monocular and interocular suppression (to fit the profound 42 Oral presentations: Spatial vision Thursday dichoptic masking). Stage 2 incorporates steeply accelerating transduction (to fit the deep regions of monocular and binocular facilitation), and binocular summation and suppression (to fit the monocular and binocular masking). With all model parameters fixed from the discrimination thresholds, we examined the slopes of the psychometric functions. The monocular and binocular slopes were steep (Weibull ߘ3-4) at very low mask contrasts and shallow (ߘ1.2) at all higher contrasts, as predicted by all three models. The dichoptic slopes were steep (ߘ3-4) at very low contrasts, and very steep (ß>5.5) at high contrasts (confirming Meese et al, loco cit.). A crucial new result was that intermediate dichoptic mask contrasts produced shallow slopes (ߘ2). Only the two-stage model predicted the observed pattern of slope variation, so providing good empirical support for a two-stage process of binocular contrast transduction. [Supported by EPSRC GR/S74515/01]

Mass transfer characteristics of two-aqueous-phase liquid-liquid mixtures

Mass transfer rates were studied using the falling drop method. Cibacron Blue 3 GA dye was the transferring solute from the salt phase to the PEG phase. Measurements were undertaken for several concentrations of the dye and the phase-forming solutes and with a range of different drop sizes, e.g. 2.8, 3.0 and 3.7 mm. The dye was observed to be present in the salt phase as finely dispersed solids but a model confirmed that the mass transfer process could still be described by an equation based upon the Whitman two-film model. The overall mass transfer coefficient increased with increasing concentration of the dye. The apparent mass transfer coefficient ranged from 1 x 10-5 to 2 x 10 -4 m/s. Further experiments suggested that mass transfer was enhanced at high concentration by several mechanisms. The dye was found to change the equilibrium composition of the two phases, leading to transfer of salt between the drop and continuous phases. It also lowered the interfacial tension (i.e. from 1.43 x 10-4 N/m for 0.01% w/w dye concentration to 1.07 x 10-4 N/m for 0.2% w/w dye concentration) between the two phases, which could have caused interfacial instabilities (Marangoni effects). The largest drops were deformable, which resulted in a significant increase in the mass transfer rate. Drop size distribution and Sauter mean drop diameter were studied on-line in a 1 litre agitated vessel using a laser diffraction technique. The effects of phase concentration, dispersed phase hold-up and impeller speed were investigated for the salt-PEG system. An increase in agitation speed in the range 300 rpm to 1000 rpm caused a decrease in mean drop diameter, e.g. from 50 m to 15 m. A characteristic bimodal drop size distribution was established within a very short time. An increase in agitation rate caused a shift of the larger drop size peak to a smaller size.

Mass transfer coefficient for drying of moist particulate in a bubbling fluidized bed

Experiments on drying of moist particles by ambient air were carried out to measure the mass transfer coefficient in a bubbling fluidized bed. Fine glass beads of mean diameter 125?µm were used as the bed material. Throughout the drying process, the dynamic material distribution was recorded by electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) and the exit air condition was recorded by a temperature/humidity probe. The ECT data were used to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on the bubble characteristics. The exit air moisture content was used to determine the water content in the bed. The measured overall mass transfer coefficient was in the range of 0.0145–0.021?m/s. A simple model based on the available correlations for bubble-cloud and cloud-dense interchange (two-region model) was used to predict the overall mass transfer coefficient. Comparison between the measured and predicted mass transfer coefficient have shown reasonable agreement. The results were also used to determine the relative importance of the two transfer regions.

Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold

A fundamental problem for any visual system with binocular overlap is the combination of information from the two eyes. Electrophysiology shows that binocular integration of luminance contrast occurs early in visual cortex, but a specific systems architecture has not been established for human vision. Here, we address this by performing binocular summation and monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking experiments for horizontal 1 cycle per degree test and masking gratings. These data reject three previously published proposals, each of which predict too little binocular summation and insufficient dichoptic facilitation. However, a simple development of one of the rejected models (the twin summation model) and a completely new model (the two-stage model) provide very good fits to the data. Two features common to both models are gently accelerating (almost linear) contrast transduction prior to binocular summation and suppressive ocular interactions that contribute to contrast gain control. With all model parameters fixed, both models correctly predict (1) systematic variation in psychometric slopes, (2) dichoptic contrast matching, and (3) high levels of binocular summation for various levels of binocular pedestal contrast. A review of evidence from elsewhere leads us to favor the two-stage model. © 2006 ARVO.

Contrast masking in strabismic amblyopia: attenuation, noise, interocular suppression and binocular summation

To investigate amblyopic contrast vision at threshold and above we performed pedestal-masking (contrastdiscrimination) experiments with a group of eight strabismic amblyopes using horizontal sinusoidal gratings (mainly 3 c/deg) in monocular, binocular and dichoptic configurations balanced across eye (i.e. five conditions). With some exceptions in some observers, the four main results were as follows. (1) For the monocular and dichoptic conditions, sensitivity was less in the amblyopic eye than in the good eye at all mask contrasts. (2) Binocular and monocular dipper functions superimposed in the good eye. (3) Monocular masking functions had a normal dipper shape in the good eye, but facilitation was diminished in the amblyopic eye. (4) A less consistent result was normal facilitation in dichoptic masking when testing the good eye, but a loss of this when testing the amblyopic eye. This pattern of amblyopic results was replicated in a normal observer by placing a neutral density filter in front of one eye. The two-stage model of binocular contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. & Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision 6, 1224--1243.] was `lesioned' in several ways to assess the form of the amblyopic deficit. The most successful model involves attenuation of signal and an increase in noise in the amblyopic eye, and intact stages of interocular suppression and binocular summation. This implies a behavioural influence from monocular noise in the amblyopic visual system as well as in normal observers with an ND filter over one eye.

Binocular contrast interactions:Dichoptic masking is not a single process

To decouple interocular suppression and binocular summation we varied the relative phase of mask and target in a 2IFC contrast-masking paradigm. In Experiment I, dichoptic mask gratings had the same orientation and spatial frequency as the target. For in-phase masking, suppression was strong (a log-log slope of ∼1) and there was weak facilitation at low mask contrasts. Anti-phase masking was weaker (a log-log slope of ∼0.7) and there was no facilitation. A two-stage model of contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. and Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision, 6: 1224-1243] provided a good fit to the in-phase results and fixed its free parameters. It made successful predictions (with no free parameters) for the anti-phase results when (A) interocular suppression was phase-indifferent but (B) binocular summation was phase sensitive. Experiments II and III showed that interocular suppression comprised two components: (i) a tuned effect with an orientation bandwidth of ∼±33° and a spatial frequency bandwidth of >3 octaves, and (ii) an untuned effect that elevated threshold by a factor of between 2 and 4. Operationally, binocular summation was more tightly tuned, having an orientation bandwidth of ∼±8°, and a spatial frequency bandwidth of ∼0.5 octaves. Our results replicate the unusual shapes of the in-phase dichoptic tuning functions reported by Legge [Legge, G.E. (1979). Spatial frequency masking in human vision: Binocular interactions. Journal of the Optical Society of America, 69: 838-847]. These can now be seen as the envelope of the direct effects from interocular suppression and the indirect effect from binocular summation, which contaminates the signal channel with a mask that has been suppressed by the target. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The innovation decision:an economic analysis

Studies of the determinants and effects of innovation commonly make an assumption about the way in which firms make the decision to innovate, but rarely test this assumption. Using a panel of Irish manufacturing firms we test the performance of two alternative models of the innovation decision, and find that a two-stage model (the firm decides whether to innovate, then whether to perform product only, process only or both) outperforms a one-stage, simultaneous model. We also find that external knowledge sourcing affects the innovation decision and the type of innovation undertaken in a way not previously recognised in the literature. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

Foreign direct investment and economic development:an interactive relationship

With the increasing importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), there have been substantial studies on this issue, both empirically and theoretically. However, most existing studies focus on either the impacts of FDI presence or the determinants of FDI inflows, ignoring the fact that inward FDI and economic development may simultaneously affect each other. This thesis sets out to examine the interactive effects between FDI and economic development. The whole thesis is composed of five chapters. Chapter One is an overall introduction to the thesis. Chapter Two presents a theoretical study and chapter Two and Three provide two empirical studies. Chapter Five concludes. Chapter Two presents a theoretical two-sector model that features the importance of human capital in attracting foreign investment. This model theoretically explains why FDI is more likely to occur among countries that are similar in terms of human capital and technology. On the other hand, MNCs must train local employees to work with firm-specific technology and hence improve the technological skills of local workers. In Chapter Two, an empirical model is constructed to detect whether the productivities of foreign and local firms impact each other. The model is tested on China’s data at the industry level. The results indicate that productivity growth of local and foreign firms are jointly determined. Evidence also suggests that the extent to which spillovers occur varies with difference technology levels of local firms. Chapter Four investigates the relationship between FDI and economic grown based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970-1999. Both equations of FDI inflow and GDP growth are examined. The results indicate that FDI not only directly promotes economic growth by itself, but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms. There is a strong positive interaction effect of FDI with human capital and a strong negative interaction effect of FDI with technology gap on economic growth in developing countries.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Cross-orientation masking is speed invariant between ocular pathways but speed dependent within them

In human (D. H. Baker, T. S. Meese, & R. J. Summers, 2007b) and in cat (B. Li, M. R. Peterson, J. K. Thompson, T. Duong, & R. D. Freeman, 2005; F. Sengpiel & V. Vorobyov, 2005) there are at least two routes to cross-orientation suppression (XOS): a broadband, non-adaptable, monocular (within-eye) pathway and a more narrowband, adaptable interocular (between the eyes) pathway. We further characterized these two routes psychophysically by measuring the weight of suppression across spatio-temporal frequency for cross-oriented pairs of superimposed flickering Gabor patches. Masking functions were normalized to unmasked detection thresholds and fitted by a two-stage model of contrast gain control (T. S. Meese, M. A. Georgeson, & D. H. Baker, 2006) that was developed to accommodate XOS. The weight of monocular suppression was a power function of the scalar quantity ‘speed’ (temporal-frequency/spatial-frequency). This weight can be expressed as the ratio of non-oriented magno- and parvo-like mechanisms, permitting a fast-acting, early locus, as befits the urgency for action associated with high retinal speeds. In contrast, dichoptic-masking functions superimposed. Overall, this (i) provides further evidence for dissociation between the two forms of XOS in humans, and (ii) indicates that the monocular and interocular varieties of XOS are space/time scale-dependent and scale-invariant, respectively. This suggests an image-processing role for interocular XOS that is tailored to natural image statistics—very different from that of the scale-dependent (speed-dependent) monocular variety.

Pattern integration in the normal and abnormal human visual system

The processing conducted by the visual system requires the combination of signals that are detected at different locations in the visual field. The processes by which these signals are combined are explored here using psychophysical experiments and computer modelling. Most of the work presented in this thesis is concerned with the summation of contrast over space at detection threshold. Previous investigations of this sort have been confounded by the inhomogeneity in contrast sensitivity across the visual field. Experiments performed in this thesis find that the decline in log contrast sensitivity with eccentricity is bilinear, with an initial steep fall-off followed by a shallower decline. This decline is scale-invariant for spatial frequencies of 0.7 to 4 c/deg. A detailed map of the inhomogeneity is developed, and applied to area summation experiments both by incorporating it into models of the visual system and by using it to compensate stimuli in order to factor out the effects of the inhomogeneity. The results of these area summation experiments show that the summation of contrast over area is spatially extensive (occurring over 33 stimulus carrier cycles), and that summation behaviour is the same in the fovea, parafovea, and periphery. Summation occurs according to a fourth-root summation rule, consistent with a “noisy energy” model. This work is extended to investigate the visual deficit in amblyopia, finding that area summation is normal in amblyopic observers. Finally, the methods used to study the summation of threshold contrast over area are adapted to investigate the integration of coherent orientation signals in a texture. The results of this study are described by a two-stage model, with a mandatory local combination stage followed by flexible global pooling of these local outputs. In each study, the results suggest a more extensive combination of signals in vision than has been previously understood.