The valuation of travel time savings in least developed countries:theoretical and empirical challenges and results from a field study

In developed countries travel time savings can account for as much as 80% of the overall benefits arising from transport infrastructure and service improvements. In developing countries they are generally ignored in transport project appraisals, notwithstanding their importance. One of the reasons for ignoring these benefits in the developing countries is that there is insufficient empirical evidence to support the conventional models for valuing travel time where work patterns, particularly of the poor, are diverse and it is difficult to distinguish between work and non-work activities. The exclusion of time saving benefits may lead to a bias against investment decisions that benefit the poor and understate the poverty reduction potential of transport investments in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). This is because the poor undertake most travel and transport by walking and headloading on local roads, tracks and paths and improvements of local infrastructure and services bring large time saving benefits for them through modal shifts. The paper reports on an empirical study to develop a methodology for valuing rural travel time savings in the LDCs. Apart from identifying the theoretical and empirical issues in valuing travel time savings in the LDCs, the paper presents and discusses the results of an analysis of data from Bangladesh. Some of the study findings challenge the conventional wisdom concerning the time saving values. The Bangladesh study suggests that the western concept of dividing travel time savings into working and non-working time savings is broadly valid in the developing country context. The study validates the use of preference methods in valuing non-working time saving values. However, stated preference (SP) method is more appropriate than revealed preference (RP) method.

How to manual:the valuation of rural travel time savings in least developed countries (LDCs)

The manual is designed to bring out issues that are relevant in the valuation of rural travel time savings in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). It should also be relevant for other developing countries which do not have LDC status but have rural economy features typical of low income developing countries. The manual elaborates step-by-step procedures on how to design and execute studies to estimate the value of time (VoT) savings of rural travellers.

The value of time in least developed countries:the African studies : final report

This is a report on a study designed to test the applicability of conventional Stated Preference and Revealed Preference models for valuing the time savings of rural travellers in least developed countries and to develop and demonstrate a robust methodology for estimating values of travel time savings which could be used in developing countries.

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

Reliability, normative data, and the effect of age-related macular disease on the Eger Macular Stressometer photostress recovery time

Purpose: To assess repeatability and reproducibility, to determine normative data, and to investigate the effect of age-related macular disease, compared with normals, on photostress recovery time measured using the Eger Macular Stressometer (EMS). Method: The study population comprised 49 healthy eyes of 49 participants. Four EMS measurements were taken in two sessions separated by 1 h by two practitioners, with reversal of order in the second session. EMS readings were also taken from 17 age-related maculopathy (ARM), and 12 age-related macular degeneration (AMD), affected eyes. Results: EMS readings are repeatable to within ± 7 s. There is a statistically significant difference between controls and ARM affected eyes (t = 2.169, p = 0.045), and AMD affected eyes (t = 2.817, p = 0.016). The EMS is highly specific, and demonstrates sensitivity of 29% for ARM, and 50% for AMD. Conclusions: The EMS may be a useful screening test for ARM, however, direct illumination of the macula of greater intensity and longer duration may yield less variable results. © 2004 The College of Optometrists.

Apparent motion photometry:evaluation and reliability of a novel method for the measurement of macular pigment

Background/aims Macular pigment is thought to protect the macula against exposure to light and oxidative stress, both of which may play a role in the development of age-related macular degeneration. The aim was to clinically evaluate a novel cathode-ray-tube-based method for measurement of macular pigment optical density (MPOD) known as apparent motion photometry (AMP). Methods The authors took repeat readings of MPOD centrally (0°) and at 3° eccentricity for 76 healthy subjects (mean (±SD) 26.5±13.2 years, range 18–74 years). Results The overall mean MPOD for the cohort was 0.50±0.24 at 0°, and 0.28±0.20 at 3° eccentricity; these values were significantly different (t=-8.905, p<0.001). The coefficients of repeatability were 0.60 and 0.48 for the 0 and 3° measurements respectively. Conclusions The data suggest that when the same operator is taking repeated 0° AMP MPOD readings over time, only changes of more than 0.60 units can be classed as clinically significant. In other words, AMP is not suitable for monitoring changes in MPOD over time, as increases of this magnitude would not be expected, even in response to dietary modification or nutritional supplementation.

Reliability:its implications in production systems design

Research on production systems design has in recent years tended to concentrate on ‘software’ factors such as organisational aspects, work design, and the planning of the production operations. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to maximising the contributions made by fixed assets, particularly machines and equipment. However, as the cost of unproductive machine time has increased, reliability, particularly of machine tools, has become ever more important. Reliability theory and research has traditionally been based in the main on electrical and electronic equipment whereas mechanical devices, especially machine tools, have not received sufficiently objective treatment. A recently completed research project has considered the reliability of machine tools by taking sample surveys of purchasers, maintainers and manufacturers. Breakdown data were also collected from a number of engineering companies and analysed using both manual and computer techniques. Results obtained have provided an indication of those factors most likely to influence reliability and which in turn could lead to improved design and selection of machine tool systems. Statistical analysis of long-term field data has revealed patterns of trends of failure which could help in the design of more meaningful maintenance schemes.

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

Transfer of patients from health care centres to special care services:analysis of travel distances in Nordic countries

Objectives: This paper highlights the importance of analysing patient transportation in Nordic circumpolar areas. The research questions we asked are as follows: How many Finnish patients have been transferred to special care intra-country and inter-country in 2009? Does it make any difference to health care policymakers if patients are transferred inter-country? Study design: We analysed the differences in distances from health care centres to special care services within Finland, Sweden and Norway and considered the health care policy implica tions. Methods: An analysis of the time required to drive between service providers using the "Google distance meter" (http://maps.google.com/); conducting interviews with key Finnish stakeholders; and undertaking a quantitative analyses of referral data from the Lapland Hospital District. Results: Finnish patients are generally not transferred for health care services across national borders even if the distances are shorter. Conclusion: Finnish patients have limited access to health care services in circumpolar are as across the Nordic countries for 2 reasons. First, health professionals in Norway and Sweden do not speak Finnish, which presents a language problem. Second, The Social Insurance Institution of Finland does not cover the expenditures of travel or the costs of medicine. In addition, it seems that in circumpolar areas the density of Finnish service providers is greater than Swedish ones, causing many Swedish citizens to transfer to Finnish health care providers every year. However, future research is needed to determine the precise reasons for this.

A near real-time water surface detection method based on HSV transformation of MODIS multi-Spectral time series data

In the face of global population growth and the uneven distribution of water supply, a better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water resources is critical. Remote sensing provides a synoptic view of ongoing processes, which addresses the intricate nature of water surfaces and allows an assessment of the pressures placed on aquatic ecosystems. However, the main challenge in identifying water surfaces from remotely sensed data is the high variability of spectral signatures, both in space and time. In the last 10 years only a few operational methods have been proposed to map or monitor surface water at continental or global scale, and each of them show limitations. The objective of this study is to develop and demonstrate the adequacy of a generic multi-temporal and multi-spectral image analysis method to detect water surfaces automatically, and to monitor them in near-real-time. The proposed approach, based on a transformation of the RGB color space into HSV, provides dynamic information at the continental scale. The validation of the algorithm showed very few omission errors and no commission errors. It demonstrates the ability of the proposed algorithm to perform as effectively as human interpretation of the images. The validation of the permanent water surface product with an independent dataset derived from high resolution imagery, showed an accuracy of 91.5% and few commission errors. Potential applications of the proposed method have been identified and discussed. The methodology that has been developed 27 is generic: it can be applied to sensors with similar bands with good reliability, and minimal effort. Moreover, this experiment at continental scale showed that the methodology is efficient for a large range of environmental conditions. Additional preliminary tests over other continents indicate that the proposed methodology could also be applied at the global scale without too many difficulties

Reliability of retinal vessel calibre measurements using a retinal oximeter

Background: Summarised retinal vessel diameters are linked to systemic vascular pathology. Monochromatic images provide best contrast to measure vessel calibres. However, when obtaining images with a dual wavelength oximeter the red-free image can be extracted as the green channel information only which in turn will reduce the number of photographs taken at a given time. This will reduce patient exposure to the camera flash and could provide sufficient quality images to reliably measure vessel calibres. Methods: We obtained retinal images of one eye of 45 healthy participants. Central retinal arteriolar and central retinal venular equivalents (CRAE and CRVE, respectively) were measured using semi-automated software from two monochromatic images: one taken with a red-free filter and one extracted from the green channel of a dual wavelength oximetry image. Results: Participants were aged between 21 and 62 years, all were normotensive (SBP: 115 (12) mmHg; DBP: 72 (10) mmHg) and had normal intra-ocular pressures (12 (3) mmHg). Bland-Altman analysis revealed good agreement of CRAE and CRVE as obtained from both images (mean bias CRAE = 0.88; CRVE = 2.82). Conclusions: Summarised retinal vessel calibre measurements obtained from oximetry images are in good agreement to those obtained using red-free photographs.

Research on rework strategies for reconfigurable manufacturing system considering mission reliability

Rework strategies that involve different checking points as well as rework times can be applied into reconfigurable manufacturing system (RMS) with certain constraints, and effective rework strategy can significantly improve the mission reliability of manufacturing process. The mission reliability of process is a measurement of production ability of RMS, which serves as an integrated performance indicator of the production process under specified technical constraints, including time, cost and quality. To quantitatively characterize the mission reliability and basic reliability of RMS under different rework strategies, rework model of RMS was established based on the method of Logistic regression. Firstly, the functional relationship between capability and work load of manufacturing process was studied through statistically analyzing a large number of historical data obtained in actual machining processes. Secondly, the output, mission reliability and unit cost in different rework paths were calculated and taken as the decision variables based on different input quantities and the rework model mentioned above. Thirdly, optimal rework strategies for different input quantities were determined by calculating the weighted decision values and analyzing advantages and disadvantages of each rework strategy. At last, case application were demonstrated to prove the efficiency of the proposed method.

Research on reliability evaluation of reconfigurable manufacturing system

It is a crucial task to evaluate the reliability of manufacturing process in product development process. Process reliability is a measurement of production ability of reconfigurable manufacturing system (RMS), which serves as an integrated performance indicator of the production process under specified technical constraints, including time, cost and quality. An integration framework of manufacturing process reliability evaluation is presented together with product development process. A mathematical model and algorithm based on universal generating function (UGF) is developed for calculating the reliability of manufacturing process with respect to task intensity and process capacity, which are both independent random variables. The rework strategies of RMS are analyzed under different task intensity based on process reliability is presented, and the optimization of rework strategies based on process reliability is discussed afterwards.

Real-time temperature estimation for power MOSFETs considering thermal ageing effects

This paper presents a novel real-time power-device temperature estimation method that monitors the power MOSFET's junction temperature shift arising from thermal aging effects and incorporates the updated electrothermal models of power modules into digital controllers. Currently, the real-time estimator is emerging as an important tool for active control of device junction temperature as well as online health monitoring for power electronic systems, but its thermal model fails to address the device's ongoing degradation. Because of a mismatch of coefficients of thermal expansion between layers of power devices, repetitive thermal cycling will cause cracks, voids, and even delamination within the device components, particularly in the solder and thermal grease layers. Consequently, the thermal resistance of power devices will increase, making it possible to use thermal resistance (and junction temperature) as key indicators for condition monitoring and control purposes. In this paper, the predicted device temperature via threshold voltage measurements is compared with the real-time estimated ones, and the difference is attributed to the aging of the device. The thermal models in digital controllers are frequently updated to correct the shift caused by thermal aging effects. Experimental results on three power MOSFETs confirm that the proposed methodologies are effective to incorporate the thermal aging effects in the power-device temperature estimator with good accuracy. The developed adaptive technologies can be applied to other power devices such as IGBTs and SiC MOSFETs, and have significant economic implications.

Matching theory based travel plan aware charging algorithms in V2G smart grid networks

The frequency, time and places of charging have large impact on the Quality of Experience (QoE) of EV drivers. It is critical to design effective EV charging scheduling system to improve the QoE of EV drivers. In order to improve EV charging QoE and utilization of CSs, we develop an innovative travel plan aware charging scheduling scheme for moving EVs to be charged at Charging Stations (CS). In the design of the proposed charging scheduling scheme for moving EVs, the travel routes of EVs and the utility of CSs are taken into consideration. The assignment of EVs to CSs is modeled as a two-sided many-to-one matching game with the objective of maximizing the system utility which reflects the satisfactory degrees of EVs and the profits of CSs. A Stable Matching Algorithm (SMA) is proposed to seek stable matching between charging EVs and CSs. Furthermore, an improved Learning based On-LiNe scheduling Algorithm (LONA) is proposed to be executed by each CS in a distributed manner. The performance gain of the average system utility by the SMA is up to 38.2% comparing to the Random Charging Scheduling (RCS) algorithm, and 4.67% comparing to Only utility of Electric Vehicle Concerned (OEVC) scheme. The effectiveness of the proposed SMA and LONA is also demonstrated by simulations in terms of the satisfactory ratio of charging EVs and the the convergence speed of iteration.