Deindustrialisation:lessons from the structural outcomes of post-Communist transition

Theoretical and empirical studies show that deindustrialisation, broadly observed in developed countries, is an inherent part of the economic development pattern. However, post-communist countries, while being only middle-income economies, have also experienced deindustrialisation. Building on the model developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987) we explain this phenomenon and show that there is a strong negative relationship between the magnitude of deindustrialisation and the efficiency and consistency of market reforms. We also demonstrate that reforms of the agricultural sector play a significant role in placing a transition country on a development path that guarantees convergence to EU employment structures.

Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis:a study of Eastern European stock markets

This paper assesses the extent to which the equity markets of Hungary, Poland the Czech Republic and Russia have become less segmented. Using a variety of tests it is shown there has been a consistent increase in the co-movement of some Eastern European markets and developed markets. Using the variance decompositions from a vector autoregressive representation of returns it is shown that for Poland and Hungary global factors are having an increasing influence on equity returns, suggestive of increased equity market integration. In this paper we model a system of bivariate equity market correlations as a smooth transition logistic trend model in order to establish how rapidly the countries of Eastern Europe are moving away from market segmentation. We find that Hungary is the country which is becoming integrated the most quickly. © 2005 ELsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring civil servant resistance to M-government:a story of transition and opportunities in Turkey

The concept of mobility, related to technology in particular, has evolved dramatically over the last two decades including: (i) hardware ranging from walkmans to Ipods, laptops to netbooks, PDAs to 3G mobile phone; (ii) software supporting multiple audio and video formats driven by ubiquitous mobile wireless access, WiMax, automations such as radio frequency ID tracking and location aware services. Against the background of increasing budget deficit, along with the imperative for efficiency gains, leveraging ICT and mobility promises for work related tasks, in a public administration context, in emerging markets, point to multiple possible paths. M-government transition involve both technological changes and adoption to deliver government services differently (e.g. 24/7, error free, anywhere to the same standards) but also the design of digital strategies including possibly competing m-government models, the re-shaping of cultural practices, the creation of m-policies and legislations, the structuring of m-services architecture, and progress regarding m-governance. While many emerging countries are already offering e-government services and are gearing-up for further m-government activities, little is actually known about the resistance that is encountered, as a reflection of civil servants' current standing, before any further macro-strategies are deployed. Drawing on the resistance and mobility literature, this chapter investigates how civil servants' behaviors, in an emerging country technological environment, through their everyday practice, react and resist the influence of m-government transition. The findings points to four main type of resistance namely: i) functional resistance; ii) ideological resistance; iii) market driven resistance and iv) geographical resistance. Policy implication are discussed in the specific context of emerging markets. © 2011, IGI Global.

Whither human capital? The woeful tale of transition to tertiary education in India

In this article, we examine the issue of high dropout rates in India which has adverse implications for human capital formation and hence for the country's long-term growth potential. Using the 2004–2005 National Sample Survey (NSS) employment–unemployment data, we estimate transition probabilities of moving from a number of different educational levels to higher educational levels using a sequential logit model. Our results suggest that the overall probability of reaching tertiary education is very low. Further, even by the woeful overall standards, women are significantly worse off, particularly in rural areas.

Institutions, finance and the level of development:the impact on entrepreneurship in transition

We investigate the impact of institutions on entrepreneurial entry, based on a large cross-country sample, combining working age population data generated by the GEM project with macro level indicators. Our four key findings indicate that: (a) institutional obstacles to entrepreneurship have different impact in rich countries compared to poor countries; (b) institutional obstacles have a stronger impact on 'opportunity entrepreneurship' than on 'necessity entrepreneurship'; (c) two institutional indicators - property right protection and access to finance - appear to have a dominant impact on entrepreneurship; (d) institutions have a long term impact. More than ten years after the Soviet system imploded in Central and Eastern Europe, these countries still experience significantly lower levels of entrepreneurship than economies coming from different legal traditions.

Deindustrialisation and structural change during the post-Communist transition

The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of employment structure in post-communist economies in the broader context of deindustrialisation. The paper builds on the model of structural change developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987). We show that the starting point of high industry sector share in total employment and its direct fall when productivity of sectors changes in favour of services can be explained in terms of this framework. Moreover, the model can also describe the phenomenon of a further expansion of the agriculture, observed in countries classified as "less consistent" in the reforms implementation. Hence, we distinguish two development paths, the efficient one, called "horizontal", and the inefficient one called "vertical". We illustrate it with empirical data, using alternative measures of structural change and patterns of structural evolutions during transition. Finally, we discuss the link between the EBRD indicators of reforms and structural change. We show that the "quality" of reforms, not the initial GDP level determines a country's development path.

Internationalisation as a democratic tool:revisiting Mexico's double transition

Mexico's double transition—democratisation and internationalisation—offers a good case study to analyse the interaction between internationalisation processes and domestic developments during transitions to democracy. This article explains how the specific way in which Mexico linked with North America worked as a causal mechanism during the country's democratisation. In the end, an inadequate project of internationalisation—spearheaded by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—failed to fulfill its democratising potential.