Upper and lower bounds on the learning curve for Gaussian processes

In this paper we introduce and illustrate non-trivial upper and lower bounds on the learning curves for one-dimensional Gaussian Processes. The analysis is carried out emphasising the effects induced on the bounds by the smoothness of the random process described by the Modified Bessel and the Squared Exponential covariance functions. We present an explanation of the early, linearly-decreasing behavior of the learning curves and the bounds as well as a study of the asymptotic behavior of the curves. The effects of the noise level and the lengthscale on the tightness of the bounds are also discussed.

Studies on the generalisation of Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks

The assessment of the reliability of systems which learn from data is a key issue to investigate thoroughly before the actual application of information processing techniques to real-world problems. Over the recent years Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have come to the fore and in this thesis their generalisation capabilities are analysed from theoretical and empirical perspectives. Upper and lower bounds on the learning curve of Gaussian processes are investigated in order to estimate the amount of data required to guarantee a certain level of generalisation performance. In this thesis we analyse the effects on the bounds and the learning curve induced by the smoothness of stochastic processes described by four different covariance functions. We also explain the early, linearly-decreasing behaviour of the curves and we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the upper bounds. The effect of the noise and the characteristic lengthscale of the stochastic process on the tightness of the bounds are also discussed. The analysis is supported by several numerical simulations. The generalisation error of a Gaussian process is affected by the dimension of the input vector and may be decreased by input-variable reduction techniques. In conventional approaches to Gaussian process regression, the positive definite matrix estimating the distance between input points is often taken diagonal. In this thesis we show that a general distance matrix is able to estimate the effective dimensionality of the regression problem as well as to discover the linear transformation from the manifest variables to the hidden-feature space, with a significant reduction of the input dimension. Numerical simulations confirm the significant superiority of the general distance matrix with respect to the diagonal one.In the thesis we also present an empirical investigation of the generalisation errors of neural networks trained by two Bayesian algorithms, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and the evidence framework; the neural networks have been trained on the task of labelling segmented outdoor images.

The structural permeability of concrete at cryogenic temperatures

The thesis describes a programme of research designed to identify concretes for application at cryogenic temperature, in particular for storage of Liquefield Natural Gas which is maintained at a temperature of -165oC. The programme was undertaken in two stages. Stage 1 involved screening tests on seventeen concrete mixes to investigate the effects of strength grade (and water/cement ratio), air entrainment, aggregate type and cement type. Four mixes were selected on the basis of low temperature strength, residual strength after thermal cycling and permeability at ambient temperature. In Stage 2 the selected mixes were subjected to a comprehensive range of tests to measure those properties which determine the leak tightness of a concrete tank at temperatures down to -165oC. These included gas permeability; tensile strength, strain capacity, thermal expansion coefficient and elastic modulus, which in combination provide a measure of resistance to cracking; and bond to reinforcement, which is one of the determining factors regarding crack size and spacing. The results demonstrated that the properties of concrete were generally enhanced at cryogenic temperature, with reduced permeability, reduced crack proneness and, by virtue of increased bond to reinforcement, better control of cracking should it occur. Of the concretes tested, a lightweight mix containing sintered PFA aggregate exhibited the best performance at ambient and cryogenic temperature, having appreciably lower permeability and higher crack resistance than normal weight concretes of the same strength grade. The lightweight mix was most sensitive to thermal cycling, but there was limited evidence that this behaviour would not be significant if the concrete was prestressed. Relationships between various properties have been identified, the most significant being the reduction in gas permeability with increasing strain capacity. The structural implications of the changing properties of the concrete have also been considered.

Use of imaging technology to better understand soft contact lens fit dynamics

The principal theme of this thesis is the identification of additional factors affecting, and consequently to better allow, the prediction of soft contact lens fit. Various models have been put forward in an attempt to predict the parameters that influence soft contact lens fit dynamics; however, the factors that influence variation in soft lens fit are still not fully understood. The investigations in this body of work involved the use of a variety of different imaging techniques to both quantify the anterior ocular topography and assess lens fit. The use of Anterior-Segment Optical Coherence Tomography (AS-OCT) allowed for a more complete characterisation of the cornea and corneoscleral profile (CSP) than either conventional keratometry or videokeratoscopy alone, and for the collection of normative data relating to the CSP for a substantial sample size. The scleral face was identified as being rotationally asymmetric, the mean corneoscleral junction (CSJ) angle being sharpest nasally and becoming progressively flatter at the temporal, inferior and superior limbal junctions. Additionally, 77% of all CSJ angles were within ±50 of 1800, demonstrating an almost tangential extension of the cornea to form the paralimbal sclera. Use of AS-OCT allowed for a more robust determination of corneal diameter than that of white-to-white (WTW) measurement, which is highly variable and dependent on changes in peripheral corneal transparency. Significant differences in ocular topography were found between different ethnicities and sexes, most notably for corneal diameter and corneal sagittal height variables. Lens tightness was found to be significantly correlated with the difference between horizontal CSJ angles (r =+0.40, P =0.0086). Modelling of the CSP data gained allowed for prediction of up to 24% of the variance in contact lens fit; however, it was likely that stronger associations and an increase in the modelled prediction of variance in fit may have occurred had an objective method of lens fit assessment have been made. A subsequent investigation to determine the validity and repeatability of objective contact lens fit assessment using digital video capture showed no significant benefit over subjective evaluation. The technique, however, was employed in the ensuing investigation to show significant changes in lens fit between 8 hours (the longest duration of wear previously examined) and 16 hours, demonstrating that wearing time is an additional factor driving lens fit dynamics. The modelling of data from enhanced videokeratoscopy composite maps alone allowed for up to 77% of the variance in soft contact lens fit, and up to almost 90% to be predicted when used in conjunction with OCT. The investigations provided further insight into the ocular topography and factors affecting soft contact lens fit.