When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Multiple component patient safety intervention in English hospitals:controlled evaluation of second phase

Objective: To independently evaluate the impact of the second phase of the Health Foundation's Safer Patients Initiative (SPI2) on a range of patient safety measures. Design: A controlled before and after design. Five substudies: survey of staff attitudes; review of case notes from high risk (respiratory) patients in medical wards; review of case notes from surgical patients; indirect evaluation of hand hygiene by measuring hospital use of handwashing materials; measurement of outcomes (adverse events, mortality among high risk patients admitted to medical wards, patients' satisfaction, mortality in intensive care, rates of hospital acquired infection). Setting: NHS hospitals in England. Participants: Nine hospitals participating in SPI2 and nine matched control hospitals. Intervention The SPI2 intervention was similar to the SPI1, with somewhat modified goals, a slightly longer intervention period, and a smaller budget per hospital. Results: One of the scores (organisational climate) showed a significant (P=0.009) difference in rate of change over time, which favoured the control hospitals, though the difference was only 0.07 points on a five point scale. Results of the explicit case note reviews of high risk medical patients showed that certain practices improved over time in both control and SPI2 hospitals (and none deteriorated), but there were no significant differences between control and SPI2 hospitals. Monitoring of vital signs improved across control and SPI2 sites. This temporal effect was significant for monitoring the respiratory rate at both the six hour (adjusted odds ratio 2.1, 99% confidence interval 1.0 to 4.3; P=0.010) and 12 hour (2.4, 1.1 to 5.0; P=0.002) periods after admission. There was no significant effect of SPI for any of the measures of vital signs. Use of a recommended system for scoring the severity of pneumonia improved from 1.9% (1/52) to 21.4% (12/56) of control and from 2.0% (1/50) to 41.7% (25/60) of SPI2 patients. This temporal change was significant (7.3, 1.4 to 37.7; P=0.002), but the difference in difference was not significant (2.1, 0.4 to 11.1; P=0.236). There were no notable or significant changes in the pattern of prescribing errors, either over time or between control and SPI2 hospitals. Two items of medical history taking (exercise tolerance and occupation) showed significant improvement over time, across both control and SPI2 hospitals, but no additional SPI2 effect. The holistic review showed no significant changes in error rates either over time or between control and SPI2 hospitals. The explicit case note review of perioperative care showed that adherence rates for two of the four perioperative standards targeted by SPI2 were already good at baseline, exceeding 94% for antibiotic prophylaxis and 98% for deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis. Intraoperative monitoring of temperature improved over time in both groups, but this was not significant (1.8, 0.4 to 7.6; P=0.279), and there were no additional effects of SPI2. A dramatic rise in consumption of soap and alcohol hand rub was similar in control and SPI2 hospitals (P=0.760 and P=0.889, respectively), as was the corresponding decrease in rates of Clostridium difficile and meticillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection (P=0.652 and P=0.693, respectively). Mortality rates of medical patients included in the case note reviews in control hospitals increased from 17.3% (42/243) to 21.4% (24/112), while in SPI2 hospitals they fell from 10.3% (24/233) to 6.1% (7/114) (P=0.043). Fewer than 8% of deaths were classed as avoidable; changes in proportions could not explain the divergence of overall death rates between control and SPI2 hospitals. There was no significant difference in the rate of change in mortality in intensive care. Patients' satisfaction improved in both control and SPI2 hospitals on all dimensions, but again there were no significant changes between the two groups of hospitals. Conclusions: Many aspects of care are already good or improving across the NHS in England, suggesting considerable improvements in quality across the board. These improvements are probably due to contemporaneous policy activities relating to patient safety, including those with features similar to the SPI, and the emergence of professional consensus on some clinical processes. This phenomenon might have attenuated the incremental effect of the SPI, making it difficult to detect. Alternatively, the full impact of the SPI might be observable only in the longer term. The conclusion of this study could have been different if concurrent controls had not been used.

Laminar degeneration of the frontal and temporal cortex in neuronal intermediate filament inclusion disease (NIFID): a study using a-internexin immunohistochemistry

Objective: To determine the laminar distribution of the pathological changes in the frontal and temporal lobe in neuronal intermediate filament inclusion disease (NIFID). Method: The distribution of the alpha-intenexin-positive neuronal cytoplasmic inclusions (NCI), surviving neurons, swollen achromatic neurons (SN) and glial cell nuclei was studied across the cortex in gyri of the frontal and temporal lobe in 10 cases of NIFID. Results: The distribution of the NCI was highly variable within different gyri, a peak in the upper cortex, a bimodal distribution with peaks of density in the upper and lower laminae, or no significant variation in density across the cortex. The surviving neurons were either bimodally distributed or exhibited no significant change in density across the cortex. The SN and glial cell nuclei were most abundant in the lower cortical laminae. In half of the gyri, variations in density of the NCI across the cortex were positively correlated with the SN. In some gyri, the surviving neurons were positively correlated with the SN and negatively correlated with the glial cell nuclei. In addition, the SN and glial cell nuclei were positively correlated in over half the gyri studied. Conclusion: The data suggest that frontal and temporal lobe degeneration in NIFID characterized by NCI, SN, neuronal loss and gliosis extends across the cortical laminae with considerable variation between cases and gyri. alpha-internexin-positive neurons in the upper laminae appear to be particularly vulnerable. The gliosis appears to be largely correlated with the appearance of SN and with neuronal loss and not related to the NCI.

Quantification of vacuolation ('spongiform change'), surviving neurones and prion protein deposition in eleven cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease

Vacuolation ('spongiform change') and prion protein (PrP) deposition were quantified in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, dentate gyrus and molecular layer of the cerebellum in 11 cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). The density of vacuoles was greater in the cerebral cortex compared to the hippocampus, dentate gyrus and cerebellum. Within the cortex, vacuole density was significantly greater in the occipital compared to the temporal lobe and the density of surviving neurones was greatest in the occipital lobe. The density of the non-florid PrP plaques was greater in the cerebellum compared to the other brain areas. There were significantly more florid-type PrP plaques in the cerebral cortex compared to the hippocampus and the molecular layer of the cerebellum. No significant correlations were observed between the densities of the vacuoles and the PrP plaques. The densities of vacuoles in the parietal cortex and the non-florid plaques in the frontal cortex were positively correlated with the density of surviving neurones. The densities of the florid and the non-florid plaques were positively correlated in the parietal cortex, occipital cortex, inferior temporal gyrus and dentate gyrus. The data suggest: (i) vacuolation throughout the cerebral cortex, especially in the occipital lobe, but less evident in the hippocampus and molecular layer of the cerebellum; (ii) the non-florid plaques are more common than the florid plaques and predominate in the molecular layer of the cerebellum; and (iii) either the florid plaques develop from the non-florid plaques or both types are morphological variants resulting from the same degenerative process.

Effects of the build-up and resetting of auditory stream segregation on temporal discrimination

The tendency to hear a tone sequence as 2 or more streams (segregated) builds up, but a sudden change in properties can reset the percept to 1 stream (integrated). This effect has not hitherto been explored using an objective measure of streaming. Stimuli comprised a 2.0-s fixed-frequency inducer followed by a 0.6-s test sequence of alternating pure tones (3 low [L]-high [H] cycles). Listeners compared intervals for which the test sequence was either isochronous or the H tones were slightly delayed. Resetting of segregation should make identifying the anisochronous interval easier. The HL frequency separation was varied (0-12 semitones), and properties of the inducer and test sequence were set to the same or different values. Inducer properties manipulated were frequency, number of onsets (several short bursts vs. one continuous tone), tone:silence ratio (short vs. extended bursts), level, and lateralization. All differences between the inducer and the L tones reduced temporal discrimination thresholds toward those for the no-inducer case, including properties shown previously not to affect segregation greatly. Overall, it is concluded that abrupt changes in a sequence cause resetting and improve subsequent temporal discrimination. (PsycINFO Database Record © 2009 APA, all rights reserved)

Does competitive entry structurally change key marketing metrics?

To what extent does competitive entry create a structural change in key marketing metrics? New players may just be a temporal nuisance to incumbents, but could also fundamentally change the latter's performance evolution, or induce them to permanently alter their spending levels and/or pricing decisions. Similarly, the addition of a new marketing channel could permanently shift shopping preferences, or could just create a short-lived migration from existing channels. The steady-state impact of a given entry or channel addition on various marketing metrics is intrinsically an empirical issue for which we need an appropriate testing procedure. In this study, we introduce a testing sequence that allows for the endogenous determination of potential change (break) locations, thereby accounting for lead and/or lagged effects of the introduction of interest. By not restricting the number of potential breaks to one (as is commonly done in the marketing literature), we quantify the impact of the new entrant(s) while controlling for other events that may have taken place in the market. We illustrate the methodology in the context of the Dutch television advertising market, which was characterized by the entry of several late movers. We find that the steady-state growth of private incumbents' revenues was slowed by the quasi-simultaneous entry of three new players. Contrary to industry observers' expectations, such a slowdown was not experienced in the related markets of print and radio advertising.

"It's not my fault - but only I can change it":counterfactual and prefactual thoughts of managers

In testing for the self-serving bias in performance evaluation, the authors propose that comparing managers' counterfactual and prefactual thoughts about subordinates' performance is more conclusive than the attributional approach and also offers practical advantages. In a study with 120 managers, a 4-way interaction of subordinate performance, temporal perspective, direction, and reference confirmed the predicted pattern. Managers' thoughts about how a weak performance could have been enhanced had external references, but thoughts about how such a performance could be enhanced in the future focused on the leader. This asymmetry was only observed for weak performance. Results are discussed with regard to biases in leaders' performance evaluations and to how counter- and prefactual thoughts could be used for leadership research and practice.

Revealing spatio-temporal regimes of generation in Raman fiber lasers

We present here experimental observation of different spatio-temporal generation regimes in quasi-CW Raman fiber laser in the most simple experimental configuration. The generation regimes depend on pump power and range from partial mode-locking to turbulent, and a generation of short-lived pulses. While in temporal domain transitions could be described in quantitative way, in spatio-temporal domain they represent qualitative change in observed dynamics.

Deconvolution of magnetic acoustic change complex (mACC)

Objective: The aim of this study was to design a novel experimental approach to investigate the morphological characteristics of auditory cortical responses elicited by rapidly changing synthesized speech sounds. Methods: Six sound-evoked magnetoencephalographic (MEG) responses were measured to a synthesized train of speech sounds using the vowels /e/ and /u/ in 17 normal hearing young adults. Responses were measured to: (i) the onset of the speech train, (ii) an F0 increment; (iii) an F0 decrement; (iv) an F2 decrement; (v) an F2 increment; and (vi) the offset of the speech train using short (jittered around 135. ms) and long (1500. ms) stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs). The least squares (LS) deconvolution technique was used to disentangle the overlapping MEG responses in the short SOA condition only. Results: Comparison between the morphology of the recovered cortical responses in the short and long SOAs conditions showed high similarity, suggesting that the LS deconvolution technique was successful in disentangling the MEG waveforms. Waveform latencies and amplitudes were different for the two SOAs conditions and were influenced by the spectro-temporal properties of the sound sequence. The magnetic acoustic change complex (mACC) for the short SOA condition showed significantly lower amplitudes and shorter latencies compared to the long SOA condition. The F0 transition showed a larger reduction in amplitude from long to short SOA compared to the F2 transition. Lateralization of the cortical responses were observed under some stimulus conditions and appeared to be associated with the spectro-temporal properties of the acoustic stimulus. Conclusions: The LS deconvolution technique provides a new tool to study the properties of the auditory cortical response to rapidly changing sound stimuli. The presence of the cortical auditory evoked responses for rapid transition of synthesized speech stimuli suggests that the temporal code is preserved at the level of the auditory cortex. Further, the reduced amplitudes and shorter latencies might reflect intrinsic properties of the cortical neurons to rapidly presented sounds. Significance: This is the first demonstration of the separation of overlapping cortical responses to rapidly changing speech sounds and offers a potential new biomarker of discrimination of rapid transition of sound.

Temporal scaling of optical rogue waves in unidirectional ring fiber laser

A fiber mode-lock laser allows generation of the optical rogue wave (ORW) at different time scales. The criteria for distinguishing between them is a comparison of the event lifetime with the main characteristic time of the system. The characteristic time can be estimated from the decay of an autocorrelation function (AF). Thus, in comparison with AF characteristic time, fast optical rogue wave (FORW) events have duration less than the AF decay time and it appeared due to pulse-pulse interaction and nonlinear pulses dynamics. While slow optical rogue wave (SORW) have a duration much more longer than the decay time of the AF which it papered due to hopping between different attractors. Switching between regimes can be managed by change the artificial birefringence that induced in a laser cavity. For understanding the role playing by the periodical amplification and the resonator, we have performed an unidirectional fiber laser experiments without a saturable absorber. This laser experiment allowed to generate of most of the RW patterns which were either observed experimentally or predicted theoretically. In this way, we have observed the generation of an FORW along with SORW under similar conditions. Most of the patterns were found to be mutually exclusive which means that only one RW mechanism was realized in each regime of generation.