Business cycles, long waves, and company langevity in Birmingham area metal industries 1780-1980

This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

The spalling of concrete in fires

The occurrence of spalling is a major factor in determining the fire resistance of concrete constructions. The apparently random occurrence of spalling has limited the development and application of fire resistance modelling for concrete structures. This Thesis describes an experimental investigation into the spalling of concrete on exposure to elevated temperatures. It has been shown that spalling may be categorised into four distinct types, aggregate spalling, corner spalling, surface spalling and explosive spalling. Aggregate spalling has been found to be a form of shear failure of aggregates local to the heated surface. The susceptibility of any particular concrete to aggregate spalling can be quantified from parameters which include the coefficients of thermal expansion of both the aggregate and the surrounding mortar, the size and thermal diffusivity of the aggregate and the rate of heating. Corner spalling, which is particularly significant for the fire resistance of concrete columns, is a result of concrete losing its tensile strength at elevated temperatures. Surface spalling is the result of excessive pore pressures within heated concrete. An empirical model has been developed to allow quantification of the pore pressures and a material failure model proposed. The dominant parameters are rate of heating, pore saturation and concrete permeability. Surface spalling may be alleviated by limiting pore pressure development and a number of methods to this end have been evaluated. Explosive spalling involves the catastrophic failure of a concrete element and may be caused by either of two distinct mechanisms. In the first instance, excessive pore pressures can cause explosive spalling, although the effect is limited principally to unloaded or relatively small specimens. A second cause of explosive spalling is where the superimposition of thermally induced stresses on applied load stresses exceed the concrete's strength.