A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Numerical Comparison of the Drag Models of Granular Flows Applied to the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

The paper presents a comparison between the different drag models for granular flows developed in the literature and the effect of each one of them on the fast pyrolysis of wood. The process takes place on an 100 g/h lab scale bubbling fluidized bed reactor located at Aston University. FLUENT 6.3 is used as the modeling framework of the fluidized bed hydrodynamics, while the fast pyrolysis of the discrete wood particles is incorporated as an external user defined function (UDF) hooked to FLUENT’s main code structure. Three different drag models for granular flows are compared, namely the Gidaspow, Syamlal O’Brien, and Wen-Yu, already incorporated in FLUENT’s main code, and their impact on particle trajectory, heat transfer, degradation rate, product yields, and char residence time is quantified. The Eulerian approach is used to model the bubbling behavior of the sand, which is treated as a continuum. Biomass reaction kinetics is modeled according to the literature using a two-stage, semiglobal model that takes into account secondary reactions.

A comparison of sales response predictions from demand models applied to store-level versus panel data

In order to generate sales promotion response predictions, marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated (consumer-level) or aggregated (store-level) scanner data. Comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation. This study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store-level data, with one major exception: a random coefficients model designed to capture within-store heterogeneity using store-level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions (as well as better fit) compared to other model specifications. An empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights. This article has supplementary material online.

Comparison of the anticatabolic effects of leucine and Ca-β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate in experimental models of cancer cachexia

Objective: Loss of skeletal muscle is the most debilitating feature of cancer cachexia, and there are few treatments available. The aim of this study was to compare the anticatabolic efficacy of L-leucine and the leucine metabolite β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate (Ca-HMB) on muscle protein metabolism, both invitro and invivo. Methods: Studies were conducted in mice bearing the cachexia-inducing murine adenocarcinoma 16 tumor, and in murine C2 C12 myotubes exposed to proteolysis-inducing factor, lipopolysaccharide, and angiotensin II. Results: Both leucine and HMB were found to attenuate the increase in protein degradation and the decrease in protein synthesis in murine myotubes induced by proteolysis-inducing factor, lipopolysaccharide, and angiotensin II. However, HMB was more potent than leucine, because HMB at 50 μM produced essentially the same effect as leucine at 1 mM. Both leucine and HMB reduced the activity of the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway as measured by the functional (chymotrypsin-like) enzyme activity of the proteasome in muscle lysates, as well as Western blot quantitation of protein levels of the structural/enzymatic proteasome subunits (20 S and 19 S) and the ubiquitin ligases (MuRF1 and MAFbx). Invivo studies in mice bearing the murine adenocarcinoma 16 tumor showed a low dose of Ca-HMB (0.25 g/kg) tobe 60% more effective than leucine (1 g/kg) in attenuating loss of body weight over a 4-d period. Conclusion: These results favor the clinical feasibility of using Ca-HMB over high doses of leucine for the treatment of cancer cachexia. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

A comparison of high-content screening versus manual analysis to assay the effects of mesenchymal stem cell-conditioned medium on neurite outgrowth in vitro

Bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) promote nerve growth and functional recovery in animal models of spinal cord injury (SCI) to varying levels. The authors have tested high-content screening to examine the effects of MSC-conditioned medium (MSC-CM) on neurite outgrowth from the human neuroblastoma cell line SH-SY5Y and from explants of chick dorsal root ganglia (DRG). These analyses were compared to previously published methods that involved hand-tracing individual neurites. Both methods demonstrated that MSC-CM promoted neurite outgrowth. Each showed the proportion of SH-SY5Y cells with neurites increased by ~200% in MSC-CM within 48 h, and the number of neurites/SH-SY5Y cells was significantly increased in MSC-CM compared with control medium. For high-content screening, the analysis was performed within minutes, testing multiple samples of MSC-CM and in each case measuring >15,000 SH-SY5Y cells. In contrast, the manual measurement of neurite outgrowth from >200 SH-SY5Y cells in a single sample of MSC-CM took at least 1 h. High-content analysis provided additional measures of increased neurite branching in MSC-CM compared with control medium. MSC-CM was also found to stimulate neurite outgrowth in DRG explants using either method. The application of the high-content analysis was less well optimized for measuring neurite outgrowth from DRG explants than from SH-SY5Y cells.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Cross country comparison of careers in logistics management in Australia and Britain

Purpose – The aim of this research was to ascertain the current roles and responsibilities of logistics managers in two countries, how they compare their situation with other managers and to identify the types of knowledge and experience that would assist them to develop their careers. Design/methodology/approach – This paper compares the results of a postal survey of 303 Australian and 161 British logistics managers. Findings – The study indicates that logistics managers in both countries share many similar experiences, responsibilities and perceptions of their career situations. They take considerable pride and satisfaction from these careers but recognise the need for continuing professional development in their present and future roles. Research limitations/implications – The research is limited to the respondents to the surveys. Further research in other countries including less well-developed economies would add to the generalisation of results. Practical implications – It is argued that for successful international supply chain management, there is a need to review both current and future provision in higher education and continuing professional development, in order to strengthen strategic competences and increase understanding of the significance of interdisciplinary awareness in global markets. Originality/value – This paper represents the first attempt to understand the roles, responsibilities, career pathways and future needs of logistics managers in the two countries. Its results should provide guidance to top managers for the future success of the logistics function in their organisations.

Brady et al.'s (2005) service evaluation models: A replication and extension in China

The research described in this study replicates and extends the Brady et al., [Brady, M. K., Knight, G. A., Cronin Jr. J. Toma, G., Hult, M. and Keillor, B. D. (2005), emoving the Contextual Lens: A Multinational, Mult-setting Comparison of Service Evaluation Models, Journal of Retailing, 81(3), pp. 215-230] study suggestion that future research in service evaluations should focus on emerging service economies such as China. The intent of the research was to examine the suitability of the models suggested by Brady and colleagues in the Chinese market. The replication somewhat successfully duplicated their finding as to the superiority of the comprehensive service evaluation model. Additionally, we also sought to examine as to whether the service evaluation model is gender invariant. Our findings indicate that there are significant differences between gender. These findings are discussed relative to the limitations associated with the study.

A comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems

This thesis presents a comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems on the basis of their efficiency, capital cost and electricity production cost. Four systems are evaluated: combustion to raise steam for a steam cycle; atmospheric gasification to produce fuel gas for a dual fuel diesel engine; pressurised gasification to produce fuel gas for a gas turbine combined cycle; and fast pyrolysis to produce pyrolysis liquid for a dual fuel diesel engine. The feedstock in all cases is wood in chipped form. This is the first time that all three thermochemical conversion technologies have been compared in a single, consistent evaluation.The systems have been modelled from the transportation of the wood chips through pretreatment, thermochemical conversion and electricity generation. Equipment requirements during pretreatment are comprehensively modelled and include reception, storage, drying and communication. The de-coupling of the fast pyrolysis system is examined, where the fast pyrolysis and engine stages are carried out at separate locations. Relationships are also included to allow learning effects to be studied. The modelling is achieved through the use of multiple spreadsheets where each spreadsheet models part of the system in isolation and the spreadsheets are combined to give the cost and performance of a whole system.The use of the models has shown that on current costs the combustion system remains the most cost-effective generating route, despite its low efficiency. The novel systems only produce lower cost electricity if learning effects are included, implying that some sort of subsidy will be required during the early development of the gasification and fast pyrolysis systems to make them competitive with the established combustion approach. The use of decoupling in fast pyrolysis systems is a useful way of reducing system costs if electricity is required at several sites because• a single pyrolysis site can be used to supply all the generators, offering economies of scale at the conversion step. Overall, costs are much higher than conventional electricity generating costs for fossil fuels, due mainly to the small scales used. Biomass to electricity opportunities remain restricted to niche markets where electricity prices are high or feed costs are very low. It is highly recommended that further work examines possibilities for combined beat and power which is suitable for small scale systems and could increase revenues that could reduce electricity prices.

Spatially structured cognitve models of semantic information:the implications for computerised databases

Existing theories of semantic cognition propose models of cognitive processing occurring in a conceptual space, where ‘meaning’ is derived from the spatial relationships between concepts’ mapped locations within the space. Information visualisation is a growing area of research within the field of information retrieval, and methods for presenting database contents visually in the form of spatial data management systems (SDMSs) are being developed. This thesis combined these two areas of research to investigate the benefits associated with employing spatial-semantic mapping (documents represented as objects in two- and three-dimensional virtual environments are proximally mapped dependent on the semantic similarity of their content) as a tool for improving retrieval performance and navigational efficiency when browsing for information within such systems. Positive effects associated with the quality of document mapping were observed; improved retrieval performance and browsing behaviour were witnessed when mapping was optimal. It was also shown using a third dimension for virtual environment (VE) presentation provides sufficient additional information regarding the semantic structure of the environment that performance is increased in comparison to using two-dimensions for mapping. A model that describes the relationship between retrieval performance and browsing behaviour was proposed on the basis of findings. Individual differences were not found to have any observable influence on retrieval performance or browsing behaviour when mapping quality was good. The findings from this work have implications for both cognitive modelling of semantic information, and for designing and testing information visualisation systems. These implications are discussed in the conclusions of this work.

Investigating viscous fluid flow in an internal mixer using computational fluid dynamics

This thesis presents an effective methodology for the generation of a simulation which can be used to increase the understanding of viscous fluid processing equipment and aid in their development, design and optimisation. The Hampden RAPRA Torque Rheometer internal batch twin rotor mixer has been simulated with a view to establishing model accuracies, limitations, practicalities and uses. As this research progressed, via the analyses several 'snap-shot' analysis of several rotor configurations using the commercial code Polyflow, it was evident that the model was of some worth and its predictions are in good agreement with the validation experiments, however, several major restrictions were identified. These included poor element form, high man-hour requirements for the construction of each geometry and the absence of the transient term in these models. All, or at least some, of these limitations apply to the numerous attempts to model internal mixes by other researchers and it was clear that there was no generally accepted methodology to provide a practical three-dimensional model which has been adequately validated. This research, unlike others, presents a full complex three-dimensional, transient, non-isothermal, generalised non-Newtonian simulation with wall slip which overcomes these limitations using unmatched ridding and sliding mesh technology adapted from CFX codes. This method yields good element form and, since only one geometry has to be constructed to represent the entire rotor cycle, is extremely beneficial for detailed flow field analysis when used in conjunction with user defined programmes and automatic geometry parameterisation (AGP), and improves accuracy for investigating equipment design and operation conditions. Model validation has been identified as an area which has been neglected by other researchers in this field, especially for time dependent geometries, and has been rigorously pursued in terms of qualitative and quantitative velocity vector analysis of the isothermal, full fill mixing of generalised non-Newtonian fluids, as well as torque comparison, with a relatively high degree of success. This indicates that CFD models of this type can be accurate and perhaps have not been validated to this extent previously because of the inherent difficulties arising from most real processes.

Enhanced semantic access to formal software models

The success of the Semantic Web, as the next generation of Web technology, can have profound impact on the environment for formal software development. It allows both the software engineers and machines to understand the content of formal models and supports more effective software design in terms of understanding, sharing and reusing in a distributed manner. To realise the full potential of the Semantic Web in formal software development, effectively creating proper semantic metadata for formal software models and their related software artefacts is crucial. In this paper, a methodology with tool support is proposed to automatically derive ontological metadata from formal software models and semantically describe them.

Comparison of BER estimation methods in numerical simulation of 40 Gbit/s RZ-DPSK transmission

This study analyzes the validity of different Q-factor models in the BER estimation in RZ-DPSK transmission at 40 Gb/s channel rate. The impact of the duty cycle of the carrier pulses on the accuracy of the BER estimates through the different models has also been studied.

Brady et al.'s (2005) service evaluation models: A replication and extension in China

The research described in this study replicates and extends the Brady et al., [Brady, M. K., Knight, G. A., Cronin Jr. J. Toma, G., Hult, M. and Keillor, B. D. (2005), emoving the Contextual Lens: A Multinational, Mult-setting Comparison of Service Evaluation Models, Journal of Retailing, 81(3), pp. 215-230] study suggestion that future research in service evaluations should focus on emerging service economies such as China. The intent of the research was to examine the suitability of the models suggested by Brady and colleagues in the Chinese market. The replication somewhat successfully duplicated their finding as to the superiority of the comprehensive service evaluation model. Additionally, we also sought to examine as to whether the service evaluation model is gender invariant. Our findings indicate that there are significant differences between gender. These findings are discussed relative to the limitations associated with the study.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.