Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.

The use of models and methods for strategic planning:towards an holistic view of strategy

Formulating manufacturing business strategy is often fragmented in as much as current tools address upstream and downstream vertical integration with product integration, or more recently, product and infrastructure integration. Rarely do tools address all of these dimensions in an holistic manner. The research described in this paper is that undertaken in the MAPSTRAT project: a scoping study with industrial partners, aiming to satisfy this business need. A comprehensive literature study is described which is contextualized using six case studies. The paper stresses the importance of ‘joined-up thinking’ and outlines plans for an appropriate tool that is under development.

Integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for marketing strategy development:the hybridisation and its effectiveness

A hybrid approach for integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for developing marketing strategies is proposed in this paper. Within this approach, the group Delphi method is employed to help groups of managers undertake SWOT analysis. Fuzzy logic is applied to fuzzify the results of SWOT analysis. Expert systems are utilised to formulate marketing strategies based upon the fuzzified strategic inputs. In addition, guidelines are also provided to help users link the hybrid approach with managerial judgement and intuition. The effectiveness of the hybrid approach has been validated with MBA and MA marketing students. It is concluded that the hybrid approach is more effective in terms of decision confidence, group consensus, helping to understand strategic factors, helping strategic thinking, and coupling analysis with judgement, etc.

The practice and process of delivering integration through strategic planning

This paper explains how strategic planning is able to deliver strategic integration within organizations. While communication and participation within planning processes are perceived to have an integrative effect, we argue that these effects are unlikely to arise simply from bringing people together. Rather, we suggest that, given the varying interests of actors in different business units, integration will only arise from active negotiations and compromises between these actors. The paper is based upon a case of strategic planning in a multinational that was attempting to develop greater strategic integration across Europe. Drawing upon an activity theory framework, we examine how a common strategy emerges over time through modifications to the planning process and to different actors’ roles within it. The findings are used to develop a process model that shows how different business unit characteristics of planning experience and relative power shape different experiences of communication and participation activities and different processes for achieving integration. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this process model contributes to the literature on strategic planning, political processes of strategy-making, and strategy-as-practice.

Strategic planning as communicative process

This paper looks at how a strategic plan is constructed through a communicative process. Drawing on Ricoeur’s concepts of decontextualization and recontextualization, we conceptualize strategic planning activities as being constituted through the iterative and recursive relationship of talk and text. Based on an in-depth case study, our findings show how multiple actors engage in a formal strategic planning process which is manifested in a written strategy document. This document is thus central in the iterative talk to text cycles. As individuals express their interpretations of the current strategic plan in talk, they are able to make amendments to the text that then shape future textual versions of the plan. This iterative cycle is repeated until a final plan is agreed. We develop our findings into a model of the communication process that explains how texts become more authoritative over time and, in doing so, how they inscribe power relationships and social order within organizations. These findings contribute to the literature on the purposes of largely institutionalized processes of strategic planning and to the literature on organization as a communications process.

Determining the influence of strategic planning's elements in its success

This paper presents the results of a multinational large-scale survey, investigating the current trends in strategic planning. The survey was conducted online using the Warwick Business School alumni database. Considering the development and implementation of strategy within a multi-process framework, the 'Strategic Development Process' model by Dyson and O'Brien (1998), using factor analysis, four distinct factors of strategic planning have been produced and with regression analysis, their impact on the success of strategic planning from a process point of view has been assessed. The results indicate that significant variation in practices involved is created by complexity either of the organizational size or environmental turbulence.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Strategy making process, its content and context in small professional football clubs

This thesis examines the phenomenon of strategy. Making as practised by small professional football clubs. The study was undertaken because football clubs were perceived to have problems with strategy-making and because it was believed that the specific circumstances of football clubs could be outside the range of views covered by conventional views of strategy-making. The characteristics of the club environment are its uncertainty and unpredictability, simultaneous competition and co--operation, strong regulations, and a not-for-profit orientation. Small clubs in particular face a constant struggle for financial viability and survival, due in part to split business and playing objectives. The study was designed to establish the extent and nature of the difficulties clubs experience with a view to preparing the way for creating practical guidance on ways to overcome them. Clearly, in order to survive in the long term, small professional football clubs require very effective strategic decisions. This study has addressed this issue by inquiring into the nature of strategy making for these organisations with the objective to establish the general direction in which the football clubs in question should be moving. As a result, the main research question to guide this investigation was determined as: Why do small professional football clubs have difficulties making strategies. The investigation was based on an analysis the concept of strategy and its elements, the strategic vision and objectives, the process by which strategic action comes about, the strategic action itself, and the context within which this action occurs. Data has been collected, analysed and interpreted in relation to each of these elements. Together with a wide variety of published material, 20 small football clubs have been sampled and personal interviews were conducted with board members of those clubs. The findings indicate that small football clubs do indeed experience considerable difficulties in making strategies, the reasons for which lie both in the characteristics of their competitive environment and their approaches to strategy-making. The competitive environment is characterised by a cartel-like structure with a high degree of regulation, high levels of uncertainty, little control over the core product or the production process, short-term business cycles and a close geographical link between a club with its local market. The management of clubs is characterised by the need to balance conflicting sporting and business objectives. Formal planning techniques are of little use in the small football club context as decision-making processes have a strong political character and the development of novel strategies is hindered by a strong conservative, industry paradigm and a lack of financial and managerial resources. It is concluded that there is no simple advice to be given to clubs, as they must re-examine the relationship between their playing and business objectives to create a unified and workable approach.

Strategy and control systems:a framework for analysis

This research explores the links between the strategies adopted by companies and the mechanisms used to control the organisation. This is not seen as a one way process with the control system following from the strategy but rather as an interactive process between the control systems, the environment and the business strategy. The main proposition of the research, derived from a review of the relevant literature, is that the dimensions of Business Pro-Activity and Environmental Change provide a plausible explanation of the reasons why companies need to adopt different strategies in order to be successful in different markets. A model is proposed which links these dimensions with the business strategy, organisational structure, strategic planning system and management control systems. The model is used as a framework for analysing four companies in order to further our understanding of these interactions and the mechanisms which act to both promote and resist change. Whilst it is not suggested that the model in its present form is a perfect instrument it has, during the course of this research, proved to be an appropriate framework for analysing the various mechanisms used by four companies to formulate and implement their strategies. The research reveals that these should not be viewed independently but as a balanced system.

The planning and management of health for development:a model for Zimbabwe

In this thesis, I view the historical background of Zimbabwe to show the patterns of traditional life that existed prior to settlerism. The form, nature, pace and impact of settlerism and colonialism up to the time of independence are also discussed to show how they affected the health of the population and the pace of development of the country. The political, social and economic underdevelopment of the African people that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to independence was a result of deliberate, politically motivated and controlled policy initiatives. These led to inequatable, inadequate, inappropriate and inaccessible health care provision. It is submitted that since it was the politics that determined the pace of underdevelopment, it must be the politics that must be at the forefront of the development strategy adopted. In the face of the amed conflict that existed in Zimbabwe, existing frameworks of analyses are shown to be inadequate for planning purposes because of their inability to provide indications about the stability of future outcomes. The Metagame technique of analysis of options is proposed as a methology that can be applied in such situations. It rejects deterministic predicative models as misleading and advocates an interactive model based on objective and subjective valuation of human behaviour. In conclusion, the search for stable outcomes rather than optimal and best solutions strategies is advocated in decision making in organisations of all sizes.

Strategic planning in a decentralised industrial group : a process-action study

The research was carried out within a major public company. It sought to implement an approach to strategic planning which accounted for organisational values as well as employing a holistic value-free analysis of the firm and its environment. To this end, an 'ecological' model of the firm was formulated. A series of value-free strategic policies for its development were generated. These policies were validated by the company's top-management.They compared favourably with their own planning outcomes. The approach appeared to be diagnostically strong but lacked sufficient depth in the context of finding realistic corrective measures. However, feedback from the company showed it to be a useful complementary process to conventional procedures, in providing an explicitly different perspective. The research empirically evaluated the company's value-systems and their influence on strategy. It introduced the idea of an organisational 'self-concept' pre-determining the acceptability of various strategies.The values and the "self-concept' of the company were identified and validated, They appeared to have considerable influence on strategy. In addition, tho company's planning process within the decentralised structure was shown to be sub-optimal. This resulted from the variety of value systems maintained by different parts of the organisation. Proposals attempting to redress this situation were ofJered and several accepted. The study was postured as process-action research and the chosen perspective could be succinctly described as a 'worm's-eye view', akin to that of many real planners operating at some distance from the decision-making body. In this way, the normal strategic functionings of the firm and any changes resulting from the researcher's intervention were observed and recorded. Recurrent difficulties of the planning process resulting from the decentralised structure were identified. The overall procedure suggested as a result of the research aimed to increase the viabiIity of planning and the efficiency of the process. It is considered to be flexible enough to be applicable in a broader context.