Linking the witness simulation software to an expert system to represent a decision-making process

Expert systems, and artificial intelligence more generally, can provide a useful means for representing decision-making processes. By linking expert systems software to simulation software an effective means of including these decision-making processes in a simulation model can be achieved. This paper demonstrates how a commercial-off-the-shelf simulation package (Witness) can be linked to an expert systems package (XpertRule) through a Visual Basic interface. The methodology adopted could be used for models, and possibly software, other than those presented here.

Strategy making process, its content and context in small professional football clubs

This thesis examines the phenomenon of strategy. Making as practised by small professional football clubs. The study was undertaken because football clubs were perceived to have problems with strategy-making and because it was believed that the specific circumstances of football clubs could be outside the range of views covered by conventional views of strategy-making. The characteristics of the club environment are its uncertainty and unpredictability, simultaneous competition and co--operation, strong regulations, and a not-for-profit orientation. Small clubs in particular face a constant struggle for financial viability and survival, due in part to split business and playing objectives. The study was designed to establish the extent and nature of the difficulties clubs experience with a view to preparing the way for creating practical guidance on ways to overcome them. Clearly, in order to survive in the long term, small professional football clubs require very effective strategic decisions. This study has addressed this issue by inquiring into the nature of strategy making for these organisations with the objective to establish the general direction in which the football clubs in question should be moving. As a result, the main research question to guide this investigation was determined as: Why do small professional football clubs have difficulties making strategies. The investigation was based on an analysis the concept of strategy and its elements, the strategic vision and objectives, the process by which strategic action comes about, the strategic action itself, and the context within which this action occurs. Data has been collected, analysed and interpreted in relation to each of these elements. Together with a wide variety of published material, 20 small football clubs have been sampled and personal interviews were conducted with board members of those clubs. The findings indicate that small football clubs do indeed experience considerable difficulties in making strategies, the reasons for which lie both in the characteristics of their competitive environment and their approaches to strategy-making. The competitive environment is characterised by a cartel-like structure with a high degree of regulation, high levels of uncertainty, little control over the core product or the production process, short-term business cycles and a close geographical link between a club with its local market. The management of clubs is characterised by the need to balance conflicting sporting and business objectives. Formal planning techniques are of little use in the small football club context as decision-making processes have a strong political character and the development of novel strategies is hindered by a strong conservative, industry paradigm and a lack of financial and managerial resources. It is concluded that there is no simple advice to be given to clubs, as they must re-examine the relationship between their playing and business objectives to create a unified and workable approach.

The beneficiation of steel making slags

The thesis examines the possibilities for the beneficiation of steel making slags by using mineral processing methods. Chemical and Mineralogical investigations have been carried out by SEM and EP}ffi to determine the most suitable separation methods in terms of crystal size, chemical composition and surface properties. Magnetic separation was applied in connection with size reductions for the extraction of the metallic iron prills and other iron containing phases and the results were related to the feed size and operating conditions. The behaviour of the slags in flotation tests was studied with respect to the recovery and grade. It was found that the free lime presence in the slags caused a high acid consumption of both weak and strong acids. It also reacted with acids and consequently produced a white precipitate, (CaS04 for H2 S04 ). The poor response of the phases to the flotation by different types of collector was found to be due to surface alteration caused by the free lime. The flocculation tests were carried out at the natural pH of the slags to prevent surface alterations. Settling tests were done to determine the suitable flocculants for the separation tests. The effect of the settling period, flocculant concentration, conditioning period and number of cleaning cycles were determined to optimize the separation tests. The discussion brings together this study with previous theoretically based work cited in the literature to elucidate the factor5governing the utilisation of steel making slags.

Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

Show bizz becomes show buzz:how viral diffusion changes the traditional meaning-making process of a rising star

Studying the case of a young French rapper called Kamini, the authors show how the viral diffusion of a new creative product, such as a song, radically changes traditional meaning-making processes. Instead of the top-down approach in which product positioning is carefully constructed and transferred to consumers, marketers are faced with a bottom-up trend in which consumers increasingly participate in blogs and online forums to talk about products (thus, creating and diffusing meaning) before any marketing action is undertaken. Our study aims to understand the interactions and tensions between market forces that result from this pro-active role of the consumer.

The influence of context on the strategic decision-making process:a review of the literature

This paper critically reviews the strategic decision-making process literature, with a specific focus on the effects of context. Context refers to the top management team, strategic decision-specific characteristics, the external environment and firm characteristics. This literature review also develops an illustrative framework that incorporates these four different categories of contextual variables that influence the strategic decision-making process. As a result of the variety and pervasiveness of contextual variables featured within the literature, a comprehensive and up-to-date review is essential for organizing and synthesizing the extant literature to explicate an agenda for future research. The purpose of this literature review is threefold: first, to critically review the strategic decision-making process literature to highlight the underlying themes, issues, tensions and debates in the field; second, to identify the opportunities for future theory development; and third, to state the methodological implications arising from this review. © 2013 British Academy of Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An empirical examination of the strategic decision-making process:the relationship between context, process, and outcomes

Despite concerted academic interest in the strategic decision-making process (SDMP) since the 1980s, a coherent body of theory capable of guiding practice has not materialised. This is because many prior studies focus only on a single process characteristic, often rationality or comprehensiveness, and have paid insufficient attention to context. To further develop theory, research is required which examines: (i) the influence of context from multiple theoretical perspectives (e.g. upper echelons, environmental determinism); (ii) different process characteristics from both synoptic formal (e.g. rationality) and political incremental (e.g. politics) perspectives, and; (iii) the effects of context and process characteristics on a range of SDMP outcomes. Using data from 30 interviews and 357 questionnaires, this thesis addresses several opportunities for theory development by testing an integrative model which incorporates: (i) five SDMP characteristics representing both synoptic formal (procedural rationality, comprehensiveness, and behavioural integration) and political incremental (intuition, and political behaviour) perspectives; (ii) four SDMP outcome variables—strategic decision (SD) quality, implementation success, commitment, and SD speed, and; (iii) contextual variables from the four theoretical perspectives—upper echelons, SD-specific characteristics, environmental determinism, and firm characteristics. The present study makes several substantial and original contributions to knowledge. First, it provides empirical evidence of the contextual boundary conditions under which intuition and political behaviour positively influence SDMP outcomes. Second, it establishes the predominance of the upper echelons perspective; with TMT variables explaining significantly more variance in SDMP characteristics than SD specific characteristics, the external environment, and firm characteristics. A newly developed measure of top management team expertise also demonstrates highly significant direct and indirect effects on the SDMP. Finally, it is evident that SDMP characteristics and contextual variables influence a number of SDMP outcomes, not just overall SD quality, but also implementation success, commitment, and SD speed.

Electronic information sharing in local government authorities:factors influencing the decision-making process

Local Government Authorities (LGAs) are mainly characterised as information-intensive organisations. To satisfy their information requirements, effective information sharing within and among LGAs is necessary. Nevertheless, the dilemma of Inter-Organisational Information Sharing (IOIS) has been regarded as an inevitable issue for the public sector. Despite a decade of active research and practice, the field lacks a comprehensive framework to examine the factors influencing Electronic Information Sharing (EIS) among LGAs. The research presented in this paper contributes towards resolving this problem by developing a conceptual framework of factors influencing EIS in Government-to-Government (G2G) collaboration. By presenting this model, we attempt to clarify that EIS in LGAs is affected by a combination of environmental, organisational, business process, and technological factors and that it should not be scrutinised merely from a technical perspective. To validate the conceptual rationale, multiple case study based research strategy was selected. From an analysis of the empirical data from two case organisations, this paper exemplifies the importance (i.e. prioritisation) of these factors in influencing EIS by utilising the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. The intent herein is to offer LGA decision-makers with a systematic decision-making process in realising the importance (i.e. from most important to least important) of EIS influential factors. This systematic process will also assist LGA decision-makers in better interpreting EIS and its underlying problems. The research reported herein should be of interest to both academics and practitioners who are involved in IOIS, in general, and collaborative e-Government, in particular. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer simulation for tube-making by the cold roll-forming process

The conventional design of forming rolls depends heavily on the individual skill of roll designers which is based on intuition and knowledge gained from previous work. Roll design is normally a trial an error procedure, however with the progress of computer technology, CAD/CAM systems for the cold roll-forming industry have been developed. Generally, however, these CAD systems can only provide a flower pattern based on the knowledge obtained from previously successful flower patterns. In the production of ERW (Electric Resistance Welded) tube and pipe, the need for a theoretical simulation of the roll-forming process, which can not only predict the occurrence of the edge buckling but also obtain the optimum forming condition, has been recognised. A new simulation system named "CADFORM" has been devised that can carry out the consistent forming simulation for this tube-making process. The CADFORM system applied an elastic-plastic stress-strain analysis and evaluate edge buckling by using a simplified model of the forming process. The results can also be visualised graphically. The calculated longitudinal strain is obtained by considering the deformation of lateral elements and takes into account the reduction in strains due to the fin-pass roll. These calculated strains correspond quite well with the experimental results. Using the calculated strains, the stresses in the strip can be estimated. The addition of the fin-pass roll reduction significantly reduces the longitudinal compressive stress and therefore effectively suppresses edge buckling. If the calculated longitudinal stress is controlled, by altering the forming flower pattern so it does not exceed the buckling stress within the material, then the occurrence of edge buckling can be avoided. CADFORM predicts the occurrence of edge buckling of the strip in tube-making and uses this information to suggest an appropriate flower pattern and forming conditions which will suppress the occurrence of the edge buckling.

Development of a co-operative distributed process mining system for quality assurance

In this paper, a co-operative distributed process mining system (CDPMS) is developed to streamline the workflow along the supply chain in order to offer shorter delivery times, more flexibility and higher customer satisfaction with learning ability. The proposed system is equipped with the ‘distributed process mining’ feature which is used to discover the hidden relationships among each working decision in distributed manner. This method incorporates the concept of data mining and knowledge refinement into decision making process for ensuring ‘doing the right things’ within the workflow. An example of implementation is given, based on the case of slider manufacturer.

Purchase decision-making in fair trade and the ethical 'gap':'is there a fair trade twix?'

Children are increasingly being recognised as a significant force in the retail market place, as primary consumers, influencers of others, and as future customers. This paper adds to the literature on children as consumers by exploring their attitudinal responses to a specific group of products: Fair Trade lines. There has been no research to date that has specifically addressed children as consumers of Fair Trade or the ethical purchase decision-making process in this area. The methodological approach taken here is an essentially interpretive and naturalistic analysis of two focus groups of school children. The analysis found that there is an urgent need to develop meaningful Fair Trade brands that combine strong brand knowledge and positive brand images to bridge the ethical purchase gap between the formation of clear ethical attitudes and actual ethical purchase behaviour. Such an approach would both capture more of the children’s primary market and influence future purchase behaviour. It is argued that Fair Trade actors should coordinate new marketing communications campaigns that build brand knowledge structures holistically around the Fair Trade process and that extend beyond merely raising consumer awareness.

Decision making in nuclear waste management:the use of the synoptic approach

This thesis is concerned with the use of the synoptic approach within decision making concerning nuclear waste management. The synoptic approach to decision making refers to an approach to rational decision making that assumes as an ideal, comprehensiveness of information and analysis. Two case studies are examined in which a high degree of synoptic analysis has been used within the decision making process. The case studies examined are the Windscale Inquiry into the decision to build the THORP reprocessing plant and the Nirex safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The case studies are used to test Lindblom's hypothesis that a synoptic approach to decision making is not achievable. In the first case study Lindblom's hypothesis is tested through the evaluation of the decision to build the THORP plant, taken following the Windscale Inquiry. It is concluded that the incongruity of this decision supports Lindblom's hypothesis. However, it has been argued that the Inquiry should be seen as a legitimisation exercise for a decision that was effectively predetermined, rather than a rigorous synoptic analysis. Therefore, the Windscale Inquiry does not provide a robust test of the synoptic method. It was concluded that a methodology was required, that allowed robust conclusions to be drawn, despite the ambiguity of the role of the synoptic method in decision making. Thus, the methodology adopted for the second case study was modified. In this case study the synoptic method was evaluated directly. This was achieved through the analysis of the cogency of the Nirex safety assessment. It was concluded that the failure of Nirex to provide a cogent synoptic analysis supported Lindblom's criticism of the synoptic method. Moreover, it was found that the synoptic method failed in the way that Lindblom predicted that it would.

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Extreme events, organizations and the politics of decision making

Purpose – Threats of extreme events, such as terrorist attacks or infrastructure breakdown, are potentially highly disruptive events for all types of organizations. This paper seeks to take a political perspective to power in strategic decision making and how this influences planning for extreme events. Design/methodology/approach – A sample of 160 informants drawn from 135 organizations, which are part of the critical national infrastructure in the UK, forms the empirical basis of the paper. Most of these organizations had publicly placed business continuity and preparedness as a strategic priority. The paper adopts a qualitative approach, coding data from focus groups. Findings – In nearly all cases there is a pre-existing dominant coalition which keeps business continuity decisions off the strategic agenda. The only exceptions to this are a handful of organizations which provide continuous production, such as some utilities, where disruption to business as usual can be readily quantified. The data reveal structural and decisional elements of the exercise of power. Structurally, the dominant coalition centralizes control by ensuring that only a few functional interests participate in decision making. Research limitations/implications – Decisional elements of power emphasize the dominance of calculative rationality where decisions are primarily made on information and arguments which can be quantified. Finally, the paper notes the recursive aspect of power relations whereby agency and structure are mutually constitutive over time. Organizational structures of control are maintained, despite the involvement of managers charged with organizational preparedness and resilience, who remain outside the dominant coalition. Originality/value – The paper constitutes a first attempt to show how planning for emergencies fits within the strategy-making process and how politically controlled this process is.