Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Exploring the digital supply chain:implications and models for online software distribution

As a discipline, supply chain management (SCM) has traditionally been primarily concerned with the procurement, processing, movement and sale of physical goods. However an important class of products has emerged - digital products - which cannot be described as physical as they do not obey commonly understood physical laws. They do not possess mass or volume, and they require no energy in their manufacture or distribution. With the Internet, they can be distributed at speeds unimaginable in the physical world, and every copy produced is a 100% perfect duplicate of the original version. Furthermore, the ease with which digital products can be replicated has few analogues in the physical world. This paper assesses the effect of non-physicality on one such product – software – in relation to the practice of SCM. It explores the challenges that arise when managing the software supply chain and how practitioners are addressing these challenges. Using a two-pronged exploratory approach that examines the literature around software management as well as direct interviews with software distribution practitioners, a number of key challenges associated with software supply chains are uncovered, along with responses to these challenges. This paper proposes a new model for software supply chains that takes into account the non-physicality of the product being delivered. Central to this model is the replacement of physical flows with flows of intellectual property, the growing importance of innovation over duplication and the increased centrality of the customer in the entire process. Hybrid physical / digital supply chains are discussed and a framework for practitioners concerned with software supply chains is presented.

The value of proprietary health and safety software to proactive health and safety management

There has been little research in health and safety management concernmg the application of information technology to the field. This thesis attempts to stimulate interest in this area by analysing the value of proprietary health and safety software to proactive health and safety management. The thesis is based upon the detailed software evaluation of seven pieces of proprietary health and safety software. It features a discussion concerning the development of information technology and health and safety management, a review of the key issues identified during the software evaluations, an analysis of the commercial market for this type of software, and a consideration of the broader issues which surround the use of this software. It also includes practical guidance for the evaluation, selection, implementation and maintenance of all health and safety management software. This includes a comprehensive software evaluation chart. The implications of the research are considered for proprietary health and safety software, the application of information technology to health and safety management, and for future research.

Introduction to performance improvement management software (PIM-DEA)

This chapter provides information on the use of Performance Improvement Management Software (PIMDEA). This advanced DEA software enables users to make the best possible analysis of the data, using the latest theoretical developments in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). PIM-DEA software gives full capacity to assess efficiency and productivity, set targets, identify benchmarks, and much more, allowing users to truly manage the performance of organizational units. PIM-DEA is easy to use and powerful, and it has an extensive range of the most up-to-date DEA models and which can handle large sets of data.

Sensor and software use for the glycaemic management of insulin-treated type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients

Lowering glucose levels, while avoiding hypoglycaemia, can be challenging in insulin-treated patients with diabetes. We evaluated the role of ambulatory glucose profile in optimising glycaemic control in this population. Insulin-treated patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes were recruited into a prospective, multicentre, 100-day study and randomised to control (n = 28) or intervention (n = 59) groups. The intervention group used ambulatory glucose profile, generated by continuous glucose monitoring, to assess daily glucose levels, whereas the controls relied on capillary glucose testing. Patients were reviewed at days 30 and 45 by the health care professional to adjust insulin therapy. Comparing first and last 2 weeks of the study, ambulatory glucose profile-monitored type 2 diabetes patients (n = 28) showed increased time in euglycaemia (mean ± standard deviation) by 1.4 ± 3.5 h/day (p = 0.0427) associated with reduction in HbA1c from 77 ± 15 to 67 ± 13 mmol/mol (p = 0.0002) without increased hypoglycaemia. Type 1 diabetes patients (n = 25) showed reduction in hypoglycaemia from 1.4 ± 1.7 to 0.8 ± 0.8 h/day (p = 0.0472) associated with a marginal HbA1c decrease from 75 ± 10 to 72 ± 8 mmol/mol (p = 0.0508). Largely similar findings were observed comparing intervention and control groups at end of study. In conclusion, ambulatory glucose profile helps glycaemic management in insulin-treated diabetes patients by increasing time spent in euglycaemia and decreasing HbA1c in type 2 diabetes patients, while reducing hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetes patients.

Inventory parameter management and focused continuous improvement for repetitive batch manufacturers

What this thesis proposes is a methodology to assist repetitive batch manufacturers in the adoption of certain aspects of the Lean Production principles. The methodology concentrates on the reduction of inventory through the setting of appropriate batch sizes, taking account of the effect of sequence dependent set-ups and the identification and elimination of bottlenecks. It uses a simple Pareto and modified EBQ based analysis technique to allocate items to period order day classes based on a combination of each item's annual usage value and set-up cost. The period order day classes the items are allocated to are determined by the constraints limits in the three measured dimensions, capacity, administration and finance. The methodology overcomes the limitations associated with MRP in the area of sequence dependent set-ups, and provides a simple way of setting planning parameters taking this effect into account by concentrating on the reduction of inventory through the systematic identification and elimination of bottlenecks through set-up reduction processes, so allowing batch sizes to reduce. It aims to help traditional repetitive batch manufacturers in a route to continual improvement by: Highlighting those areas where change would bring the greatest benefits. Modelling the effect of proposed changes. Quantifying the benefits that could be gained through implementing the proposed changes. Simplifying the effort required to perform the modelling process. It concentrates on increasing flexibility through managed inventory reduction through rationally decreasing batch sizes, taking account of sequence dependent set-ups and the identification and elimination of bottlenecks. This was achieved through the development of a software modelling tool, and validated through a case study approach.

Managing risk in software development projects:a case study

Purpose - The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for software development projects from developers' perspective. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyze and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on software development project in a public sector organization in Barbados. Findings - Analytical approach to managing risk in software development ensures effective delivery of projects to clients. Research limitations/implications - The proposed risk management framework has been applied to a single case. Practical implications - Software development projects are characterized by technical complexity, market and financial uncertainties and competent manpower availability. Therefore, successful project accomplishment depends on addressing those issues throughout the project phases. Effective risk management ensures the success of projects. Originality/value - There are several studies on managing risks in software development and information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritize risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from software developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced framework of risk management in software development, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the software development cycle. As software developers absorb considerable amount of risks, an integrated framework for managing risks in software development from developers' perspective is needed. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Managing software engineers and their knowledge

This chapter begins by reviewing the history of software engineering as a profession, especially the so-called software crisis and responses to it, to help focus on what it is that software engineers do. This leads into a discussion of the areas in software engineering that are problematic as a basis for considering knowledge management issues. Some of the previous work on knowledge management in software engineering is then examined, much of it not actually going under a knowledge management title, but rather “learning” or “expertise”. The chapter goes on to consider the potential for knowledge management in software engineering and the different types of knowledge management solutions and strategies that might be adopted, and it touches on the crucial importance of cultural issues. It concludes with a list of challenges that knowledge management in software engineering needs to address.

A simulation of a workflow management system

Suggests that simulation of the workflow component of a computer supported co-operative work (CSCW) system has the potential to reduce the costs of system implementation, while at the same time improving the quality of the delivered system. Demonstrates the value of being able to assess the frequency and volume of workflow transactions using a case study of CSCW software developed for estate agency co-workers in which a model was produced based on a discrete-event simulation approach with implementation on a spreadsheet platform.

Knowledge management systems:finding a way with technology

Purpose - To consider the role of technology in knowledge management in organizations, both actual and desired. Design/methodology/approach - Facilitated, computer-supported group workshops were conducted with 78 people from ten different organizations. The objective of each workshop was to review the current state of knowledge management in that organization and develop an action plan for the future. Findings - Only three organizations had adopted a strongly technology-based "solution" to knowledge management problems, and these followed three substantially different routes. There was a clear emphasis on the use of general information technology tools to support knowledge management activities, rather than the use of tools specific to knowledge management. Research limitations/implications - Further research is needed to help organizations make best use of generally available software such as intranets and e-mail for knowledge management. Many issues, especially human, relate to the implementation of any technology. Participation was restricted to organizations that wished to produce an action plan for knowledge management. The findings may therefore represent only "average" organizations, not the very best practice. Practical implications - Each organization must resolve four tensions: Between the quantity and quality of information/knowledge, between centralized and decentralized organization, between head office and organizational knowledge, and between "push" and "pull" processes. Originality/value - Although it is the group rather than an individual that determines what counts as knowledge, hardly any previous studies of knowledge management have collected data in a group context.

Using decision support systems to facilitate the social process of knowledge management

The social processes involved in engaging small groups of 3-15 managers in their sharing, organising, acquiring, creating and using knowledge can be supported with software and facilitator assistance. This paper introduces three such systems that we have used as facilitators to support groups of managers in their social process of decision-making by managing knowledge during face-to-face meetings. The systems include Compendium, Group Explorer (with Decision Explorer) and V*I*S*A. We review these systems for group knowledge management where the aim is for better decision-making, and discuss the principles of deploying each in a group meeting. © 2006 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the theory and application of data envelopment analysis:a foundation text with integrated software

The book aims to introduce the reader to DEA in the most accessible manner possible. It is specifically aimed at those who have had no prior exposure to DEA and wish to learn its essentials, how it works, its key uses, and the mechanics of using it. The latter will include using DEA software. Students on degree or training courses will find the book especially helpful. The same is true of practitioners engaging in comparative efficiency assessments and performance management within their organisation. Examples are used throughout the book to help the reader consolidate the concepts covered. Table of content: List of Tables. List of Figures. Preface. Abbreviations. 1. Introduction to Performance Measurement. 2. Definitions of Efficiency and Related Measures. 3. Data Envelopment Analysis Under Constant Returns to Scale: Basic Principles. 4. Data Envelopment Analysis under Constant Returns to Scale: General Models. 5. Using Data Envelopment Analysis in Practice. 6. Data Envelopment Analysis under Variable Returns to Scale. 7. Assessing Policy Effectiveness and Productivity Change Using DEA. 8. Incorporating Value Judgements in DEA Assessments. 9. Extensions to Basic DEA Models. 10. A Limited User Guide for Warwick DEA Software. Author Index. Topic Index. References.