From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

Explaining volatility and serial correlation in opening and closing returns:a study of the FT-30 components

In this paper the performance of opening and closing returns, for the components of the FT-30 will be studied. It will be shown that for these stocks opening returns have higher volatility and a greater tendency towards negative serial correlation than closing returns. Unlike previous studies this contrasting performance cannot solely be attributed to differences in the trading mechanism across the trading day. All the stocks used in our sample trade thought the day using a uniform trading mechanism. In this paper, we suggest that it is differences in the speed that closing and opening returns adjust to new information that causes differences in return performance. By estimating the Amihud and Mendelson (1987) [Amihud, Yakov, & Mendelson, Haim (1987). Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation, Journal of Finance, 62 533-553.] partial adjustment model with noise, we show that opening returns have a tendency towards over-reaction, while closing returns have a tendency towards under-reaction. We suggest that it is these differences that cause a substantial proportion (although not all) of the asymmetric return patterns associated with opening and closing returns. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Technological diversification within UK’s small serial innovators

This paper investigates the determinants of technological diversification among UK’s small serial innovators (SSIs). Using a longitudinal study of 339 UK-based small businesses accounting for almost 7000 patents between 1990 and 2006, this study constitutes the first empirical examination of technological diversification among SMEs in the literature. Results demonstrate that technological diversification is not solely a large firm activity, challenging the dominant view that innovative SMEs are extremely focused and specialised players with little technological diversification. Our findings suggest a nonlinear (i.e. inverse-U-shaped) relationship between the level of technological opportunities in the environment and the SSIs’ degree of technological diversification. This points to a trade-off between processes of exploration and exploitation across increasingly volatile technology regimes. The paper also demonstrates that small firms with impactful innovations focus their innovative activity around similar technological capabilities while firms that have introduced platform technologies in the past are more likely to engage in technological diversification.

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Reduced attentional capacity, but normal processing speed and shifting of attention in developmental dyslexia: evidence from a serial task

We report the performance of a group of adult dyslexics and matched controls in an array-matching task where two strings of either consonants or symbols are presented side by side and have to be judged to be the same or different. The arrays may differ either in the order or identity of two adjacent characters. This task does not require naming – which has been argued to be the cause of dyslexics’ difficulty in processing visual arrays – but, instead, has a strong serial component as demonstrated by the fact that, in both groups, Reaction times (RTs) increase monotonically with position of a mismatch. The dyslexics are clearly impaired in all conditions and performance in the identity conditions predicts performance across orthographic tasks even after age, performance IQ and phonology are partialled out. Moreover, the shapes of serial position curves are revealing of the underlying impairment. In the dyslexics, RTs increase with position at the same rate as in the controls (lines are parallel) ruling out reduced processing speed or difficulties in shifting attention. Instead, error rates show a catastrophic increase for positions which are either searched later or more subject to interference. These results are consistent with a reduction in the attentional capacity needed in a serial task to bind together identity and positional information. This capacity is best seen as a reduction in the number of spotlights into which attention can be split to process information at different locations rather than as a more generic reduction of resources which would also affect processing the details of single objects.

Genotypic and antimicrobial characterisation of Propionibacterium acnes isolates from surgically excised lumbar disc herniations

The anaerobic skin commensal Propionibacterium acnes is an underestimated cause of human infections and clinical conditions. Previous studies have suggested a role for the bacterium in lumbar disc herniation and infection. To further investigate this, five biopsy samples were surgically excised from each of 64 patients with lumbar disc herniation. P. acnes and other bacteria were detected by anaerobic culture, followed by biochemical and PCR-based identification. In total, 24/64 (38%) patients had evidence of P. acnes in their excised herniated disc tissue. Using recA and mAb typing methods, 52% of the isolates were type II (50% of culture-positive patients), while type IA strains accounted for 28% of isolates (42% patients). Type III (11% isolates; 21% patients) and type IB strains (9% isolates; 17% patients) were detected less frequently. The MIC values for all isolates were lowest for amoxicillin, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, rifampicin, tetracycline, and vancomycin (≤1mg/L). The MIC for fusidic acid was 1-2 mg/L. The MIC for trimethoprim and gentamicin was 2 to ≥4 mg/L. The demonstration that type II and III strains, which are not frequently recovered from skin, predominated within our isolate collection (63%) suggests that the role of P. acnes in lumbar disc herniation should not be readily dismissed. © 2013 Jess Rollason et al.

Serial dark soliton for 100-Gb/s applications

We analyze the performance through numerical simulations of a new modulation format: serial dark soliton (SDS) for wide-area 100-Gb/s applications. We compare the performance of the SDS with conventional dark soliton, amplitude-modulation phase-shift keying (also known as duobinary), nonreturn-to-zero, and return-to-zero modulation formats, when subjected to typical wide-area-network impairments. We show that the SDS has a strong chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode-dispersion tolerance, while maintaining a compact spectrum suitable for strong filtering requirement in ultradense wavelength-division-multiplexing applications. The SDS can be generated using commercially available components for 40-Gb/s applications and is cost efficient when compared with other 100-Gb/s electrical-time-division-multiplexing systems.

Serial OTDM for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications

A novel transmitter for 100 Gbit-Ethernet applications is proposed, based on the serial cascade of two 50 Gbit/s inverse-return-to-zero (also known as dark soliton) transmitters based on Mach-Zehnder modulators. The proposed transmitter and demultiplexer system uses commercially available components optimised for 40 Gbit/s applications. A 2.9 dB penalty at 100 Gbit/s is obtained using a single-stage OTDM demultiplexer and a preamplified receiver.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

The presence of pleiotrophin in the human intervertebral disc is associated with increased vascularization:an immunohistologic study

Study Design. An immunohistological study of surgical specimens of human intervertebral disc.Objective.To examine the presence of pleiotrophin in diseased or damaged intervertebral disc tissue and the association between its presence and the extent of tissue vascularization and innervation.Summary of Background Data. Increased levels of pleiotrophin, a growth and differentiation factor that is active in various pathophysiologic processes, including angiogenesis, has been associated with osteoarthritic changes of human articular cartilage. The association between pleiotrophin expression and pathologic conditions of the human intervertebral disc is unknown.Methods. Specimens of human lumbar intervertebral discs, obtained following surgical discectomy, were divided into 3 groups: nondegenerated discs (n = 7), degenerated discs (n = 6), and prolapsed discs (n = 11). Serial tissue sections of each specimen were immunostained to determine the presence of pleiotrophin, blood vessels (CD34-positive endothelial cells), and nerves (neurofilament 200 kDa [NF200]-positive nerve fibers).Results. Pleiotrophin immunoreactivity was seen in disc cells, endothelial cells, and in the extracellular matrix in most specimens of intervertebral disc but was most prevalent in vascularized tissue in prolapsed discs. There was a significant correlation between the presence of pleiotrophin-positive disc cells and that of CD34-positive blood vessels. NF200-positive nerves were seen in vascularized areas of more degenerated discs, but nerves did not appear to codistribute with blood vessels or pleiotrophin positivity in prolapsed discs.Conclusions. Pleiotrophin is present in pathologic human intervertebral discs, and its prevalence and distribution suggest that it may play a role in neovascularization of diseased or damaged disc tissue.

Cortical dynamics and synchronization related to multiple target consolidation under rapid-serial-visual-presentation conditions

The present report reviews behavioural, electroencephalographic, and especially magnetoencephalographic findings on the cortical mechanisms underlying attentional processes that separate targets from distractors and that ensure durable target representations for goal-directed action. A common way of investigation is to observe the system’s overt and covert behaviour when capacity limitations are reached. Here we focus on the aspect of temporally enhanced processing load, namely on performance deficits occurring under rapid-serial-visual-presentation (RSVP) conditions. The most prominent of these deficits is the so-called “attentional blink” (AB) effect. We first report MEG findings with respect to the time course of activation that shows modulations around 300 ms after target onset which reflect demands and success of target consolidation. Then, findings regarding long-range inter-area phase synchronization are reported that are hypothesized to mediate communication within the attentional network. Changes in synchronization reflect changes in the attentional demands of the task and are directly related to behavioural performance. Furthermore, enhanced vigilance of the system elicits systematically increased synchronization indices. A hypothetical framework is sketched out that aims at explaining limitations in multiple target consolidation under RSVP conditions.

Serial innovators in the UK:does size matter?

This article aims to shed light on the presence and importance of a significant number of small firms amongst serial innovators. Contrary to the common expectation in the innovative persistence literature, we posit that small serial innovators also benefit from operating within patterns of creative accumulation. However, it is in the quality of the technology and in the very nature of the knowledge accumulation process that the differences between small and large serial innovators can be found. Using a sample of 811 UK-based, highly innovative companies that patented over 66,000 inventions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence in support of our theory. While large serial innovators experience higher innovation rates due to the scale of their innovation efforts, small serial innovators benefit more from processes of search depth characterized by the internal recombination of their previous knowledge. We find that important differences exist also in the very nature of the technologies being developed by small and large serial innovators.

Analysis and interpretation of serial position data

The representation of serial position in sequences is an important topic in a variety of cognitive areas including the domains of language, memory, and motor control. In the neuropsychological literature, serial position data have often been normalized across different lengths, and an improved procedure for this has recently been reported by Machtynger and Shallice (2009). Effects of length and a U-shaped normalized serial position curve have been criteria for identifying working memory deficits. We present simulations and analyses to illustrate some of the issues that arise when relating serial position data to specific theories. We show that critical distinctions are often difficult to make based on normalized data. We suggest that curves for different lengths are best presented in their raw form and that binomial regression can be used to answer specific questions about the effects of length, position, and linear or nonlinear shape that are critical to making theoretical distinctions. © 2010 Psychology Press.