The design, evaluation and costing of biomass gasifiers

The objective of this study has been to enable a greater understanding of the biomass gasification process through the development and use of process and economic models. A new theoretical equilibrium model of gasification is described using the operating condition called the adiabatic carbon boundary. This represents an ideal gasifier working at the point where the carbon in the feedstock is completely gasified. The model can be used as a `target' against which the results of real gasifiers can be compared, but it does not simulate the results of real gasifiers. A second model has been developed which uses a stagewise approach in order to model fluid bed gasification, and its results have indicated that pyrolysis and the reactions of pyrolysis products play an important part in fluid bed gasifiers. Both models have been used in sensitivity analyses: the biomass moisture content and gasifying agent composition were found to have the largest effects on performance, whilst pressure and heat loss had lesser effects. Correlations have been produced to estimate the total installed capital cost of gasification systems and have been used in an economic model of gasification. This has been used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors which most affect the profitability of gasification. The most important influences on gasifier profitability have been found to be feedstock cost, product selling price and throughput. Given the economic conditions of late 1985, refuse gasification for the production of producer gas was found to be viable at throughputs of about 2.5 tonnes/h dry basis and above, in the metropolitan counties of the United Kingdom. At this throughput and above, the largest element of product gas cost is the feedstock cost, the cost element which is most variable.

Technical and economic simulation of biomass pyrolysis processes for fuels and electricity

There is considerable concern over the increased effect of fossil fuel usage on the environment and this concern has resulted in an effort to find alternative, environmentally friendly energy sources. Biomass is an available alternative resource which may be converted by flash pyrolysis to produce a crude liquid product that can be used directly to substitute for conventional fossil fuels or upgraded to a higher quality fuel. Both the crude and upgraded products may be utilised for power generation. A computer program, BLUNT, has been developed to model the flash pyrolysis of biomass with subsequent upgrading, refining or power production. The program assesses and compares the economic and technical opportunities for biomass thermochemical conversion on the same basis. BLUNT works by building up a selected processing route from a number of process steps through which the material passes sequentially. Each process step has a step model that calculates the mass and energy balances, the utilities usage and the capital cost for that step of the process. The results of the step models are combined to determine the performance of the whole conversion route. Sample results from the modelling are presented in this thesis. Due to the large number of possible combinations of feeds, conversion processes, products and sensitivity analyses a complete set of results is impractical to present in a single publication. Variation of the production costs for the available products have been illustrated based on the cost of a wood feedstock. The effect of selected macroeconomic factors on the production costs of bio-diesel and gasoline are also given.

Osmotic dehydration in plant tissues

The primary aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive investigation of the osmotic dehydration processes in plant tissue. Effort has been concentrated on the modelling for simulating the processes. Two mathematical models for simulating the mass transfer during osmotic dehydration processes in plant tissues are developed and verified using existing experimental data. Both models are based on the mechanism of diffusion and convection of any mobile material that can transport in plant tissues. The mass balance equation for the transport of each constituent is established separately for intracellular and extra-cellular volumes with taking into account the mass transfer across the cell membrane the intracellular and extra-cellular volumes and the shrinkage of the whole tissue. The contribution from turgor pressure is considered in both models. Model two uses Darcy’s law to build the relation between shrinkage velocity and hydrostatic pressure in each volume because the plant tissue can be considered as the porous medium. Moreover, it has been extended to solve the multi-dimensional problems. A lot of efforts have been made to the parameter study and the sensitivity analyses. The parameters investigated including the concentration of the osmotic solution, diffusion coefficient, permeability of the cell membrane, elastic modulus of the cell wall, critical cell volume etc. The models allow us to quantitatively simulate the time evolution of intracellular and extra-cellular volumes as well as the time evolution of concentrations in each cross-section.

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

A randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia:the ECLIPSE trial

BACKGROUND: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) is a common problem, yet evidence to inform decisions about initial medical treatment is limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) (Mirena(®), Bayer) compared with usual medical treatment, with exploration of women's perspectives on treatment. DESIGN: A pragmatic, multicentre randomised trial with an economic evaluation and a longitudinal qualitative study. SETTING: Women who presented in primary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 571 women with HMB. A purposeful sample of 27 women who were randomised or ineligible owing to treatment preference participated in semistructured face-to-face interviews around 2 and 12 months after commencing treatment. INTERVENTIONS: LNG-IUS or usual medical treatment (tranexamic acid, mefenamic acid, combined oestrogen-progestogen or progesterone alone). Women could subsequently swap or cease their allocated treatment. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the patient-reported score on the Menorrhagia Multi-Attribute Scale (MMAS) assessed over a 2-year period and then again at 5 years. Secondary outcomes included general quality of life (QoL), sexual activity, surgical intervention and safety. Data were analysed using iterative constant comparison. A state transition model-based cost-utility analysis was undertaken alongside the randomised trial. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were derived from the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and the Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (SF-6D). The intention-to-treat analyses were reported as cost per QALY gained. Uncertainty was explored by conducting both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The MMAS total scores improved significantly in both groups at all time points, but were significantly greater for the LNG-IUS than for usual treatment [mean difference over 2 years was 13.4 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.9 to 16.9 points; p < 0.001]. However, this difference between groups was reduced and no longer significant by 5 years (mean difference in scores 3.9 points, 95% CI -0.6 to 8.3 points; p = 0.09). By 5 years, only 47% of women had a LNG-IUS in place and 15% were still taking usual medical treatment. Five-year surgery rates were low, at 20%, and were similar, irrespective of initial treatments. There were no significant differences in serious adverse events between groups. Using the EQ-5D, at 2 years, the relative cost-effectiveness of the LNG-IUS compared with usual medical treatment was £1600 per QALY, which by 5 years was reduced to £114 per QALY. Using the SF-6D, usual medical treatment dominates the LNG-IUS. The qualitative findings show that women's experiences and expectations of medical treatments for HMB vary considerably and change over time. Women had high expectations of a prompt effect from medical treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The LNG-IUS, compared with usual medical therapies, resulted in greater improvement over 2 years in women's assessments of the effect of HMB on their daily routine, including work, social and family life, and psychological and physical well-being. At 5 years, the differences were no longer significant. A similar low proportion of women required surgical intervention in both groups. The LNG-IUS is cost-effective in both the short and medium term, using the method generally recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Using the alternative measures to value QoL will have a considerable impact on cost-effectiveness decisions. It will be important to explore the clinical and health-care trajectories of the ECLIPSE (clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system in primary care against standard treatment for menorrhagia) trial participants to 10 years, by which time half of the cohort will have reached menopause. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN86566246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Uniform design for the optimization of Al2O3 nanofilms produced by electrophoretic deposition

Surface modification by means of nanostructures is of interest to enhance boiling heat transfer in various applications including the organic Rankine cycle (ORC). With the goal of obtaining rough and dense aluminum oxide (Al2O3) nanofilms, the optimal combination of process parameters for electrophoretic deposition (EPD) based on the uniform design (UD) method is explored in this paper. The detailed procedures for the EPD process and UD method are presented. Four main influencing conditions controlling the EPD process were identified as nanofluid concentration, deposition time, applied voltage and suspension pH. A series of tests were carried out based on the UD experimental design. A regression model and statistical analysis were applied to the results. Sensitivity analyses of the effect of the four main parameters on the roughness and deposited mass of Al2O3 films were also carried out. The results showed that Al2O3 nanofilms were deposited compactly and uniformly on the substrate. Within the range of the experiments, the preferred combination of process parameters was determined to be nanofluid concentration of 2 wt.%, deposition time of 15 min, applied voltage of 23 V and suspension pH of 3, yielding roughness and deposited mass of 520.9 nm and 161.6 × 10− 4 g/cm2, respectively. A verification experiment was carried out at these conditions and gave values of roughness and deposited mass within 8% error of the expected ones as determined from the UD approach. It is concluded that uniform design is useful for the optimization of electrophoretic deposition requiring only 7 tests compared to 49 using the orthogonal design method.

The attenuation surface for contrast sensitivity has the form of a witch’s hat within the central visual field

Over the full visual field, contrast sensitivity is fairly well described by a linear decline in log sensitivity as a function of eccentricity (expressed in grating cycles). However, many psychophysical studies of spatial visual function concentrate on the central ±4.5 deg (or so) of the visual field. As the details of the variation in sensitivity have not been well documented in this region we did so for small patches of target contrast at several spatial frequencies (0.7–4 c/deg), meridians (horizontal, vertical, and oblique), orientations (horizontal, vertical, and oblique), and eccentricities (0–18 cycles). To reduce the potential effects of stimulus uncertainty, circular markers surrounded the targets. Our analysis shows that the decline in binocular log sensitivity within the central visual field is bilinear: The initial decline is steep, whereas the later decline is shallow and much closer to the classical results. The bilinear decline was approximately symmetrical in the horizontal meridian and declined most steeply in the superior visual field. Further analyses showed our results to be scale-invariant and that this property could not be predicted from cone densities. We used the results from the cardinal meridians to radially interpolate an attenuation surface with the shape of a witch's hat that provided good predictions for the results from the oblique meridians. The witch's hat provides a convenient starting point from which to build models of contrast sensitivity, including those designed to investigate signal summation and neuronal convergence of the image contrast signal. Finally, we provide Matlab code for constructing the witch's hat.

Separate influences of acoustic AM and FM sensitivity on the phonological decoding skills of impaired and normal readers

Developmental dyslexia is associated with deficits in the processing of basic auditory stimuli. Yet it is unclear how these sensory impairments might contribute to poor reading skills. This study better characterizes the relationship between phonological decoding skills, the lack of which is generally accepted to comprise the core deficit in reading disabilities, and auditory sensitivity to amplitude modulation (AM) and frequency modulation (FM). Thirty-eight adult subjects, 17 of whom had a history of developmental dyslexia, completed a battery, of psychophysical measures of sensitivity to FM and AM at different modulation rates, along with a measure of pseudoword reading accuracy and standardized assessments of literacy and cognitive skills. The subjects with a history of dyslexia were significantly less sensitive than controls to 2-Hz FM and 20-Hz AM only. The absence of a significant group difference for 2-Hz AM shows that the dyslexics do not have a general deficit in detecting all slow modulations. Thresholds for detecting 2-Hz and 240-Hz FM and 20-Hz AM correlated significantly with pseudoword reading accuracy. After accounting for various cognitive skills, however, multiple regression analyses showed that detection thresholds for both 2-Hz FM and 20-Hz AM were significant and independent predictors of pseudoword reading ability in the entire sample. Thresholds for 2-Hz AM and 240-Hz FM did not explain significant additional variance in pseudoword reading skill, it is therefore possible that certain components of auditory processing of modulations are related to phonological decoding skills, whereas others are not.

Brief report:effects of sensory sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty on anxiety in mothers of children with autism spectrum disorder

This study examined the relations between anxiety and individual characteristics of sensory sensitivity (SS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in mothers of children with ASD. The mothers of 50 children completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale and the IU Scale. Anxiety was associated with both SS and IU and IU was also associated with SS. Mediation analyses showed direct effects between anxiety and both IU and SS but a significant indirect effect was found only in the model in which IU mediated between SS. This is the first study to characterize the nature of the IU and SS interrelation in predicting levels of anxiety.

The sensitivity of mapping methods to reference data quality:training supervised image classifications with imperfect reference data

The accuracy of a map is dependent on the reference dataset used in its construction. Classification analyses used in thematic mapping can, for example, be sensitive to a range of sampling and data quality concerns. With particular focus on the latter, the effects of reference data quality on land cover classifications from airborne thematic mapper data are explored. Variations in sampling intensity and effort are highlighted in a dataset that is widely used in mapping and modelling studies; these may need accounting for in analyses. The quality of the labelling in the reference dataset was also a key variable influencing mapping accuracy. Accuracy varied with the amount and nature of mislabelled training cases with the nature of the effects varying between classifiers. The largest impacts on accuracy occurred when mislabelling involved confusion between similar classes. Accuracy was also typically negatively related to the magnitude of mislabelled cases and the support vector machine (SVM), which has been claimed to be relatively insensitive to training data error, was the most sensitive of the set of classifiers investigated, with overall classification accuracy declining by 8% (significant at 95% level of confidence) with the use of a training set containing 20% mislabelled cases.