Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

The selection and administration of Chinese foreign study

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Selection and education of patients for inhaled insulin

Inhaled insulin is a recent advance in insulin delivery that promises to be an effective alternative to subcutaneous insulin. Several insulin delivery systems are currently in development and the first of these has been approved for clinical use. Inhaled insulin offers greater flexibility and convenience for patients with diabetes and may be particularly useful in those who are reluctant to initiate or intensify insulin treatment. Although promising, potential concerns remain regarding its long-term effects on lungs. Also, excluding certain groups of patients such as smokers and those with respiratory illnesses will restrict its use at present. Lack of familiarity with the technology, especially relating to dose adjustments and inhaler device, is also likely to present fresh challenges. But, careful selection of patients, education, and continued support from health professionals is vital to ensure success with this new technology.

A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

Abstract A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine.

Efficient HIV-1 inhibition by a 16 nt-long RNA aptamer designed by combining in vitro selection and in silico optimisation strategies

The human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) genome contains multiple, highly conserved structural RNA domains that play key roles in essential viral processes. Interference with the function of these RNA domains either by disrupting their structures or by blocking their interaction with viral or cellular factors may seriously compromise HIV-1 viability. RNA aptamers are amongst the most promising synthetic molecules able to interact with structural domains of viral genomes. However, aptamer shortening up to their minimal active domain is usually necessary for scaling up production, what requires very time-consuming, trial-and-error approaches. Here we report on the in vitro selection of 64 nt-long specific aptamers against the complete 5' -untranslated region of HIV-1 genome, which inhibit more than 75% of HIV-1 production in a human cell line. The analysis of the selected sequences and structures allowed for the identification of a highly conserved 16 nt-long stem-loop motif containing a common 8 nt-long apical loop. Based on this result, an in silico designed 16 nt-long RNA aptamer, termed RNApt16, was synthesized, with sequence 5'-CCCCGGCAAGGAGGGG-3-'. The HIV-1 inhibition efficiency of such an aptamer was close to 85%, thus constituting the shortest RNA molecule so far described that efficiently interferes with HIV-1 replication.

Large-volume metrology instrument selection and measurability analysis

A wide range of metrology processes are involved in the manufacture of large products. In addition to the traditional tool-setting and product-verification operations, increasingly flexible metrology-enabled automation is also being used. Faced with many possible measurement problems and a very large number of metrology instruments employing diverse technologies, the selection of the appropriate instrument for a given task can be highly complex. Also, as metrology has become a key manufacturing process, it should be considered in the early stages of design, and there is currently very little research to support this. This paper provides an overview of the important selection criteria for typical measurement processes and presents some novel selection strategies. Metrics that can be used to assess measurability are also discussed. A prototype instrument selection and measurability analysis application is also presented, with discussion of how this can be used as the basis for development of a more sophisticated measurement planning tool. © 2010 Authors.

Large volume metrology instrument selection and measurability analysis

Metrology processes used in the manufacture of large products include tool setting, product verification and flexible metrology enabled automation. The range of applications and instruments available makes the selection of the appropriate instrument for a given task highly complex. Since metrology is a key manufacturing process it should be considered in the early stages of design. This paper provides an overview of the important selection criteria for typical measurement processes and presents some novel selection strategies. Metrics which can be used to assess measurability are also discussed. A prototype instrument selection and measurability analysis application is presented with discussion of how this can be used as the basis for development of a more sophisticated measurement planning tool. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

The influence of age and trait attributions on recruitment selection

The role of interpersonal attraction into the recruitment selection is gaining research attention. Early work in the domain of the influence of attraction in organisations suggested that men are given more resources, such as higher salaries and promotions. However, recent research has found women have an automatic in-group bias. It was suggested that female interviewers are more likely to hire another female. In contrast, male interviewers were found to be equally as likely to hire men as women. To resolve these two conflicting findings a behavioural experiment was set up looking at gender, attractiveness and recruitment selection. Forty participants, twenty male and twenty female, of varying ages (18-65) were recruited through age stratified sampling. Participants took on the role of manager of a medium sized company and were shown twenty photographs of faces previously rated for attractiveness. On initial viewing participants were asked to decide whether they would firstly hire the person and secondly give as many reasons for their decision. Findings from this research show that in all age groups male and female participants gave females (especially attractive females) more jobs, except in the case of the 18-21 year old females who gave attractive males more jobs. On examining the reasons behind the participant’s decisions, it was evident that if you appeared confident, friendly, youthful and attractive you were 46% more likely to receive the job. However, if you were perceived to be untrustworthy, lazy, arrogant and unintelligent you were 49% more likely not to receive the job. These findings shed light on the various processes that may underpin human resource decisions in an organisational setting.

Early transplantation of mesenchymal stem cells after spinal cord injury relieves pain hypersensitivity through suppression of pain-related signaling cascades and reduced inflammatory cell recruitment

Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (BMSC) modulate inflammatory/immune responses and promote motor functional recovery after spinal cord injury (SCI). However, the effects of BMSC transplantation on central neuropathic pain and neuronal hyperexcitability after SCI remain elusive. This is of importance because BMSC-based therapies have been proposed for clinical treatment. We investigated the effects of BMSC transplantation on pain hypersensitivity in green fluorescent protein (GFP)-positive bone marrow-chimeric mice subjected to a contusion SCI, and the mechanisms of such effects. BMSC transplantation at day 3 post-SCI improved motor function and relieved SCI-induced hypersensitivities to mechanical and thermal stimulation. The pain improvements were mediated by suppression of protein kinase C-γ and phosphocyclic AMP response element binding protein expression in dorsal horn neurons. BMSC transplants significantly reduced levels of p-p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase and extracellular signal-regulated kinase (p-ERK1/2) in both hematogenous macrophages and resident microglia and significantly reduced the infiltration of CD11b and GFP double-positive hematogenous macrophages without decreasing the CD11b-positive and GFP-negative activated spinal-microglia population. BMSC transplants prevented hematogenous macrophages recruitment by restoration of the blood-spinal cord barrier (BSCB), which was associated with decreased levels of (a) inflammatory cytokines (tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6); (b) mediators of early secondary vascular pathogenesis (matrix metallopeptidase 9); (c) macrophage recruiting factors (CCL2, CCL5, and CXCL10), but increased levels of a microglial stimulating factor (granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor). These findings support the use of BMSC transplants for SCI treatment. Furthermore, they suggest that BMSC reduce neuropathic pain through a variety of related mechanisms that include neuronal sparing and restoration of the disturbed BSCB, mediated through modulation of the activity of spinal-resident microglia and the activity and recruitment of hematogenous macrophages.

Clinical characteristics and selection of treatment modality for patients with vitreomacular traction:real-world implementation of NICE guidance (TA297)

Aim: To investigate the qualitative aspects in patient selection and the quantitative impact of disease burden in real world treatment of vitreomacular traction (VMT) and implementation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance (TA297). Methods: A monocentric, retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging over a 3 month period. Patients with VMT in at least one eye were identified for further data collection on laterality, visual acuity, symptoms, presence of epiretinal membrane, macular hole and treatment selection. Results: A total of 3472 patients underwent OCT imaging with a total of 6878 eyes scanned. Out of 87 patients, 74 patients had unilateral VMT (38 right, 36 left) and 13 patients had bilateral VMT. Eighteen patients with unilateral VMT satisfied NICE criteria of severe sight problems in the affected eye. Eight were managed for a coexisting pathology, one refused treatment, one patient did not attend, two closed spontaneously, and one received ocriplasmin prior to the study start date. Only two patients with unilateral VMT received ocriplasmin and three underwent vitrectomy. Those failing to meet NICE criteria for unilateral VMT were predominantly asymptomatic (n=49) or had coexisting ERM (n=5) or both (n=2). Conclusion: Ocriplasmin provides an alternative treatment for patients with symptomatic VMT. Our data shows that the majority of patients with VMT do not meet NICE TA297 primarily due to lack of symptoms. Those meeting NICE criteria, but not treated, tended to have coexisting macular pathology. Variation in patient selection due to subjective factors not outlined in NICE guidance suggests that real world outcomes of ocriplasmin therapy should be interpreted with caution.

Bayesian regression filter and the issue of priors

We propose a Bayesian framework for regression problems, which covers areas which are usually dealt with by function approximation. An online learning algorithm is derived which solves regression problems with a Kalman filter. Its solution always improves with increasing model complexity, without the risk of over-fitting. In the infinite dimension limit it approaches the true Bayesian posterior. The issues of prior selection and over-fitting are also discussed, showing that some of the commonly held beliefs are misleading. The practical implementation is summarised. Simulations using 13 popular publicly available data sets are used to demonstrate the method and highlight important issues concerning the choice of priors.

Genetics and competing strategies in a threshold model for mail processing

Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects are applied to a problem of distributed mail retrieval in which agents must visit mail producing cities and choose between mail types under certain constraints.The efficiency (i.e. the average amount of mail retrieved per time step), and the flexibility (i.e. the capability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are introduced and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a genetic algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation. From a more theoretical point of view, in order to avoid finite size effects, most results are obtained for large population sizes. However, we do analyse the influence of population size on the performance. Furthermore, we critically analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive the exact dynamics of the model in the large system limit under certain conditions, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.