Estimation of computer waste quantities using forecasting techniques

Technology changes rapidly over years providing continuously more options for computer alternatives and making life easier for economic, intra-relation or any other transactions. However, the introduction of new technology “pushes” old Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products to non-use. E-waste is defined as the quantities of ICT products which are not in use and is bivariate function of the sold quantities, and the probability that specific computers quantity will be regarded as obsolete. In this paper, an e-waste generation model is presented, which is applied to the following regions: Western and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Japan/Australia/New Zealand, North and South America. Furthermore, cumulative computer sales were retrieved for selected countries of the regions so as to compute obsolete computer quantities. In order to provide robust results for the forecasted quantities, a selection of forecasting models, namely (i) Bass, (ii) Gompertz, (iii) Logistic, (iv) Trend model, (v) Level model, (vi) AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA), and (vii) Exponential Smoothing were applied, depicting for each country that model which would provide better results in terms of minimum error indices (Mean Absolute Error and Mean Square Error) for the in-sample estimation. As new technology does not diffuse in all the regions of the world with the same speed due to different socio-economic factors, the lifespan distribution, which provides the probability of a certain quantity of computers to be considered as obsolete, is not adequately modeled in the literature. The time horizon for the forecasted quantities is 2014-2030, while the results show a very sharp increase in the USA and United Kingdom, due to the fact of decreasing computer lifespan and increasing sales.

The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

Studies in three phase gas-liquid-solid fluidised systems

The work is a logical continuation of research started at Aston some years ago when studies were conducted on fermentations in bubble columns. The present work highlights typical design and operating problems that could arise in such systems as waste water, chemical, biochemical and petroleum operations involving three-phase, gas-liquid-solid fluidisation; such systems are in increasing use. It is believed that this is one of few studies concerned with `true' three-phase, gas-liquid-solid fluidised systems, and that this work will contribute significantly to closing some of the gaps in knowledge in this area. The research work was mainly experimentally based and involved studies of the hydrodynamic parameters, phase holdups (gas and solid), particle mixing and segregation, and phase flow dynamics (flow regime and circulation patterns). The studies have focused particularly on the solid behaviour and the influence of properties of solids present on the above parameters in three-phase, gas-liquid-solid fluidised systems containing single particle components and those containing binary and ternary mixtures of particles. All particles were near spherical in shape and two particle sizes and total concentration levels were used. Experiments were carried out in two- and three-dimensional bubble columns. Quantitative results are presented in graphical form and are supported by qualitative results from visual studies which are also shown as schematic diagrams and in photographic form. Gas and solid holdup results are compared for air-water containing single, binary and ternary component particle mixtures. It should be noted that the criteria for selection of the materials used are very important if true three-phase fluidisation is to be achieved: this is very evident when comparing the results with those in the literature. The fluid flow and circulation patterns observed were assessed for validation of the generally accepted patterns, and the author believes that the present work provides more accurate insight into the modelling of liquid circulation in bubble columns. The characteristic bubbly flow at low gas velocity in a two-phase system is suppressed in the three-phase system. The degree of mixing within the system is found to be dependent on flow regime, liquid circulation and the ratio of solid phase physical properties. Evidence of strong `trade-off' of properties is shown; the overall solid holdup is believed to be a major parameter influencing the gas holdup structure.

The intermediate pyrolysis of de-inking sludge to produce a sustainable liquid fuel

De-inking sludge is a waste product generated from secondary fibre paper mills who manufacture recycled paper into new paper sheets; it refers directly to the solid residues which evolve during the de-inking stage of the paper pulping process. The current practice for the disposal of this waste is either by land-spreading, land-filling or incineration which are unsustainable. This work has explored the intermediate pyrolysis of pre-conditioned de-inking sludge pellets in a recently patented 20 kg/h intermediate pyrolysis reactor (The Pyroformer). The reactor is essentially two co-axial screws which are configured in such a way as to circulate solids within the reactor and thus facilitate in the cracking of tars. The potential application of using the volatile organic vapours and permanent gases evolved would be to generate both combined heat and power (CHP) located at paper making sites. The results show that de-inking sludge could be successfully pyrolysed and the organic vapours produced were composed of a mixture of aromatic hydrocarbons, phenolic compounds and some fatty acid methyl esters as detected by liquid GC-MS. The calorific value of the oil after condensing was between 36 and 37 MJ/kg and the liquid fuel properties were also determined, permanent gases were detected by a GC-TCD and were composed of approximately 24% CO, 6% CH and 70% CO (v/v%). The solid residue from pyrolysis also contained a small residual calorific value, and was largely composed of mainly calcium based inert metal oxides. The application of applying intermediate pyrolysis to de-inking sludge for both CHP production and waste reduction is in principle a feasible technology which could be applied at secondary fibre paper mills. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decentralised off-grid electricity generation in India using intermediate pyrolysis of residue straws

Use of agricultural residues, like wheat or rice straw for energy generation, is the most effective measure in terms of costs and availability. The present paper focuses the need of such measure, its impact on the environment as practiced today (open burning). The application of intermediate pyrolysis technology for straw conversion in India is discussed herein. A 20 kg/h Pyroformer has been coupled to a direct quenching system without filtration. The process temperature was around 360 ?C and the yields for the product fractions, char pyrolysis oil, and non-condensable gas fractions were, 32%, 35%, and 33% respectively. The pyrolysis oil was condensed in a quenching unit using bio-diesel or diesel. The blend produced was 30 % pyrolysis liquid and 70 % bio-diesel. The engine has been tested with the pyro-oil/biooil mixture over a long term (75 hours). An overall economic analysis of the process has been carried out.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Effect of aspect ratio on thermal convection in open and closed systems

Internally heated fluids are found across the nuclear fuel cycle. In certain situations the motion of the fluid is driven by the decay heat (i.e. corium melt pools in severe accidents, the shutdown of liquid metal reactors, molten salt and the passive control of light water reactors) as well as normal operation (i.e. intermediate waste storage and generation IV reactor designs). This can in the long-term affect reactor vessel integrity or lead to localized hot spots and accumulation of solid wastes that may prompt local increases in activity. Two approaches to the modeling of internally heated convection are presented here. These are based on numerical analysis using codes developed in-house and simulations using widely available computational fluid dynamics solvers. Open and closed fluid layers at around the transition between conduction and convection of various aspect ratios are considered. We determine optimum domain aspect ratio (1:7:7 up to 1:24:24 for open systems and 5:5:1, 1:10:10 and 1:20:20 for closed systems), mesh resolutions and turbulence models required to accurately and efficiently capture the convection structures that evolve when perturbing the conductive state of the fluid layer. Note that the open and closed fluid layers we study here are bounded by a conducting surface over an insulating surface. Conclusions will be drawn on the influence of the periodic boundary conditions on the flow patterns observed. We have also examined the stability of the nonlinear solutions that we found with the aim of identifying the bifurcation sequence of these solutions en route to turbulence.

Waste 4:electronic-scrap recycling

The Haloclean process, a rotary kiln process for pyrolysis, developed by researchers at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany makes it possible to recover copper and precious metals from the scrap, ready for recycling. Pyrolysis neatly turns brominated electronic scrap plastics into recyclable copper and methanol feedstock while removing the halogens. The process has demonstrated its ability to recycle brominated electronic scrap in extensive parametric studies. A method suitable for the selective production of HBr in the presence of chlorine is the treatment of the pyrolysis oils with molten polypropylene. This treatment is offers the possibility to use the gas and liquid fraction from pyrolysis of electronic scrap as fossil fuel substitute in copper smelter processes or as feedstock for methanol production via gasification.

Experiments on the generation of activated carbon from biomass

Activated carbon is generated from various waste biomass sources like rice straw, wheat straw, wheat straw pellets, olive stones, pistachios shells, walnut shells, beech wood and hardcoal. After drying the biomass is pyrolysed in the temperature range of 500-600 °C at low heating rates of 10 K/min. The activation of the chars is performed as steam activation at temperatures between 800 °C and 900 °C. Both the pyrolysis and activation experiments were run in lab-scale facilities. It is shown that nut shells provide high active surfaces of 1000-1300 m/g whereas the active surface of straw matters does hardly exceed 800 m/g which might be a result of the high ash content of the straws and the slightly higher carbon content of the nut shells. The active surface is detected by BET method. Besides the testing of a many types of biomass for the suitability as base material in the activated carbon production process, the experiments allow for the determination of production parameters like heating rate and pyrolysis temperature, activation time and temperature as well as steam flux which are necessary for the scale up of the process chain. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oil bearing seasonal crops in India:energy and phytoremediation potential

Purpose: A variety of biomass plantations are being raised for energy production. This case study is on energy production potential of seasonal oil bearing crops in India. These crops have the advantage of producing oil (liquid fuel) as well as biomass as agro residue (solid fuel). The purpose of the study is to estimate total energy yields of oil bearing crops and compare with other types of energy plantations. Also oil bearing crops bioaccumulate metals and thus phytoremediate soil. This provides scope for waste water irrigation. Design/methodology/approach: Relevant published papers on energy production by raising oil bearing crops have been analyzed. The effect of waste water irrigation and agronomic practices on increasing productivity is given special attention. Findings: It is shown that the seasonal oil bearing crops such as castor have a high potential to generate energy and this is comparable to energy produced by many perennial grasses. The energy yields of castor under irrigated condition was 196×103 MJ/ha and this is comparable to the reed canary grass which yields 195×103 MJ/ha. Some of the oil bearing crops are also super accumulators of certain toxic metals. Research limitations/implications: In this study, only all the accessible papers on the topic could be analyzed. Practical implications: This case study indicates that raising oil bearing crops such as castor using waste water has many advantages which include high energy yields, utilization of waste water for productive purpose and phytoremediation of soil. Originality/value: The comparison made between various types of energy crops for their energy generation is an original contribution. Findings of economic and environmental benefits by waste water irrigation are also of value. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The intermediate pyrolysis of de-inking sludge to produce a sustainable liquid fuel

De-inking sludge is a waste product generated from secondary fibre paper mills who manufacture recycled paper into new paper sheets; it refers directly to the solid residues which evolve during the de-inking stage of the paper pulping process. The current practice for the disposal of this waste is either by land-spreading, land-filling or incineration which are unsustainable. This work has explored the intermediate pyrolysis of pre-conditioned de-inking sludge pellets in a recently patented 20 kg/h intermediate pyrolysis reactor (The Pyroformer). The reactor is essentially two co-axial screws which are configured in such a way as to circulate solids within the reactor and thus facilitate in the cracking of tars. The potential application of using the volatile organic vapours and permanent gases evolved would be to generate both combined heat and power (CHP) located at paper making sites. The results show that de-inking sludge could be successfully pyrolysed and the organic vapours produced were composed of a mixture of aromatic hydrocarbons, phenolic compounds and some fatty acid methyl esters as detected by liquid GC-MS. The calorific value of the oil after condensing was between 36 and 37 MJ/kg and the liquid fuel properties were also determined, permanent gases were detected by a GC-TCD and were composed of approximately 24% CO, 6% CH and 70% CO (v/v%). The solid residue from pyrolysis also contained a small residual calorific value, and was largely composed of mainly calcium based inert metal oxides. The application of applying intermediate pyrolysis to de-inking sludge for both CHP production and waste reduction is in principle a feasible technology which could be applied at secondary fibre paper mills. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

True liquid crystal templating of SBA-15 with reduced microporosity

Mesoporous silica SBA-15 was synthesised by the true liquid crystal templating method, yielding a material with reduced microporosity compared with that produced by the more conventional liquid crystal templating route. Further advancements allow the generation of metal nanoparticle-doped SBA-15 materials with well-defined metal particle sizes, which posses potential as catalytic systems. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A techno-economic comparison of power production by biomass fast pyrolysis with gasification and combustion

This paper presents an assessment of the technical and economic performance of thermal processes to generate electricity from a wood chip feedstock by combustion, gasification and fast pyrolysis. The scope of the work begins with the delivery of a wood chip feedstock at a conversion plant and ends with the supply of electricity to the grid, incorporating wood chip preparation, thermal conversion, and electricity generation in dual fuel diesel engines. Net generating capacities of 1–20 MWe are evaluated. The techno-economic assessment is achieved through the development of a suite of models that are combined to give cost and performance data for the integrated system. The models include feed pretreatment, combustion, atmospheric and pressure gasification, fast pyrolysis with pyrolysis liquid storage and transport (an optional step in de-coupled systems) and diesel engine or turbine power generation. The models calculate system efficiencies, capital costs and production costs. An identical methodology is applied in the development of all the models so that all of the results are directly comparable. The electricity production costs have been calculated for 10th plant systems, indicating the costs that are achievable in the medium term after the high initial costs associated with novel technologies have reduced. The costs converge at the larger scale with the mean electricity price paid in the EU by a large consumer, and there is therefore potential for fast pyrolysis and diesel engine systems to sell electricity directly to large consumers or for on-site generation. However, competition will be fierce at all capacities since electricity production costs vary only slightly between the four biomass to electricity systems that are evaluated. Systems de-coupling is one way that the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system can distinguish itself from the other conversion technologies. Evaluations in this work show that situations requiring several remote generators are much better served by a large fast pyrolysis plant that supplies fuel to de-coupled diesel engines than by constructing an entire close-coupled system at each generating site. Another advantage of de-coupling is that the fast pyrolysis conversion step and the diesel engine generation step can operate independently, with intermediate storage of the fast pyrolysis liquid fuel, increasing overall reliability. Peak load or seasonal power requirements would also benefit from de-coupling since a small fast pyrolysis plant could operate continuously to produce fuel that is stored for use in the engine on demand. Current electricity production costs for a fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system are 0.091/kWh at 1 MWe when learning effects are included. These systems are handicapped by the typical characteristics of a novel technology: high capital cost, high labour, and low reliability. As such the more established combustion and steam cycle produces lower cost electricity under current conditions. The fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system is a low capital cost option but it also suffers from relatively low system efficiency particularly at high capacities. This low efficiency is the result of a low conversion efficiency of feed energy into the pyrolysis liquid, because of the energy in the char by-product. A sensitivity analysis has highlighted the high impact on electricity production costs of the fast pyrolysis liquids yield. The liquids yield should be set realistically during design, and it should be maintained in practice by careful attention to plant operation and feed quality. Another problem is the high power consumption during feedstock grinding. Efficiencies may be enhanced in ablative fast pyrolysis which can tolerate a chipped feedstock. This has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale. In summary, the fast pyrolysis and diesel engine system has great potential to generate electricity at a profit in the long term, and at a lower cost than any other biomass to electricity system at small scale. This future viability can only be achieved through the construction of early plant that could, in the short term, be more expensive than the combustion alternative. Profitability in the short term can best be achieved by exploiting niches in the market place and specific features of fast pyrolysis. These include: •countries or regions with fiscal incentives for renewable energy such as premium electricity prices or capital grants; •locations with high electricity prices so that electricity can be sold direct to large consumers or generated on-site by companies who wish to reduce their consumption from the grid; •waste disposal opportunities where feedstocks can attract a gate fee rather than incur a cost; •the ability to store fast pyrolysis liquids as a buffer against shutdowns or as a fuel for peak-load generating plant; •de-coupling opportunities where a large, single pyrolysis plant supplies fuel to several small and remote generators; •small-scale combined heat and power opportunities; •sales of the excess char, although a market has yet to be established for this by-product; and •potential co-production of speciality chemicals and fuel for power generation in fast pyrolysis systems.

Ontology-based pathways generation for biomass to bioenergy conversion

Bio energy is a renewable energy and a solution to the depleting fossil fuels. Bio energy such as heat, power and bio fuel is generated by conversion technologies using biomass for example domestic waste, root crops, forest residue and animal slurry. Pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion and combined heat and power engine are some examples of the technologies. Depending on the nature of a biomass, it can be treated with various technologies giving out some products, which can be further treated with other technologies and eventually converted into the final products as bio energy. The pathway followed by the biomass, technologies, intermediate products and bio energy in the conversion process is referred to as bio energy pathway. Identification of appropriate pathways optimizes the conversion process. Although there are various approaches to create or generate the pathways, there is still a need for a semantic approach to generate the pathways, which allow checking the consistency of the knowledge, and to share and extend the knowledge efficiently. This paper presents an ontology-based approach to automatic generation of the pathways for biomass to bio energy conversion, which exploits the definition and hierarchical structure of the biomass and technologies, their relationship and associated properties, and infers appropriate pathways. A case study has been carried out in a real-life scenario, the bio energy project for the North West of Europe (Bioen NW), which showed promising results.