8 resultados para scenario analysis

em Aston University Research Archive


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This paper presents a case study of the use of business-process simulation within the context of a business-process-reengineering approach to change. The process-based change methodology provides context to the simulation technique in that it connects the aims of a business-process simulation (BPS) study to the strategic aims of the organisation and incorporates a consideration of human factors in order to achieve successful implementation of redesigned processes. Conversely, the ability of BPS to incorporate system variability, scenario analysis and a visual display to communicate process performance makes it a useful technique to provide a realistic assessment of the need for, and results of, change.

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This paper proposes a more profound discussion of the philosophical underpins of sustainability than currently exists in the MOT literature and considers their influence on the construction of the theories on green operations and technology management. Ultimately, it also debates the link between theory and practice on this subject area. The paper is derived from insights gained in three research projects completed during the past twelve years, primarily involving the first author. From 2000 to 2002, an investigation using scenario analysis, aimed at reducing atmospheric pollution in urban centres by substituting natural gas for petrol and diesel, provided the first set of insights about public policy, environmental impacts, investment analysis, and technological feasibility. The second research project, from 2003 to 2005, using a survey questionnaire, was aimed at improving environmental performance in livestock farming and explored the issues of green supply chain scope, environmental strategy and priorities. Finally, the third project, from 2006 to 2011, investigated environmental decisions in manufacturing organisations through case study research and examined the underlying sustainability drivers and decision-making processes. By integrating the findings and conclusions from these projects, the link between philosophy, theory, and practice of green operations and technology management is debated. The findings from all these studies show that the philosophical debate seems to have little influence on theory building so far. For instance, although ‘sustainable development’ emphasises ‘meeting the needs of current and future generation’, no theory links essentiality and environmental impacts. Likewise, there is a weak link between theory and the practical issues of green operations and technology management. For example, the well-known ‘life-cycle analysis’ has little application in many cases because the life cycle of products these days is dispersed within global production and consumption systems and there are different stakeholders for each life cycle stage. The results from this paper are relevant to public policy making and corporate environmental strategy and decision making. Most of the past and current studies in the subject of green operations and sustainability management deal with only a single sustainability dimension at any one time. Here the value and originality of this paper lies in its integration between philosophy, theory, and practice of green technology and operations management.

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This study explores the linkages between culture, emotions and behavioural tendencies in unsuccessful intercultural business negotiations. A set of novel research hypotheses are developed. They are tested using a negotiation scenario analysis involving 106 Finnish and 114 Indian study participants. Three key findings emerge from the statistical tests conducted. First, new empirical evidence suggesting that qualitatively different emotions (dejection vs. agitation) are experienced after a failed intercultural business negotiation by individualists and collectivists is provided. Second, the existence of the relationship between perspective-taking ability and emotional volatility in the context of failed intercultural business negotiation involving individualists and collectivists is revealed. Third, partial support is found for the idea that different types of negative emotions can lead to the same behavioural tendency (approach) among individualists and collectivists when intercultural business negotiation fails. The paper concludes by outlining a set of theoretical and managerial implications and suggestions for further research.

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Liposomes have been imaged using a plethora of techniques. However, few of these methods offer the ability to study these systems in their natural hydrated state without the requirement of drying, staining, and fixation of the vesicles. However, the ability to image a liposome in its hydrated state is the ideal scenario for visualization of these dynamic lipid structures and environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), with its ability to image wet systems without prior sample preparation, offers potential advantages to the above methods. In our studies, we have used ESEM to not only investigate the morphology of liposomes and niosomes but also to dynamically follow the changes in structure of lipid films and liposome suspensions as water condenses on to or evaporates from the sample. In particular, changes in liposome morphology were studied using ESEM in real time to investigate the resistance of liposomes to coalescence during dehydration thereby providing an alternative assay of liposome formulation and stability. Based on this protocol, we have also studied niosome-based systems and cationic liposome/DNA complexes. Copyright © Informa Healthcare.

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In Statnote 9, we described a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) ‘random effects’ model in which the objective was to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation in space and time. The illustrative scenario involved the role of computer keyboards in a University communal computer laboratory as a possible source of microbial contamination of the hands. The study estimated the aerobic colony count of ten selected keyboards with samples taken from two keys per keyboard determined at 9am and 5pm. This type of design is often referred to as a ‘nested’ or ‘hierarchical’ design and the ANOVA estimated the degree of variation: (1) between keyboards, (2) between keys within a keyboard, and (3) between sample times within a key. An alternative to this design is a 'fixed effects' model in which the objective is not to measure sources of variation per se but to estimate differences between specific groups or treatments, which are regarded as 'fixed' or discrete effects. This statnote describes two scenarios utilizing this type of analysis: (1) measuring the degree of bacterial contamination on 2p coins collected from three types of business property, viz., a butcher’s shop, a sandwich shop, and a newsagent and (2) the effectiveness of drugs in the treatment of a fungal eye infection.

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Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is a useful method of ‘error control’, i.e., it can reduce the size of the error variance in an experimental or observational study. An initial measure obtained before the experiment, which is closely related to the final measurement, is used to adjust the final measurements, thus reducing the error variance. When this method is used to reduce the error term, the X variable must not itself be affected by the experimental treatments, because part of the treatment effect would then also be removed. Hence, the method can only be safely used when X is measured before an experiment. A further limitation of the analysis is that only the linear effect of Y on X is being removed and it is possible that Y could be a curvilinear function of X. A question often raised is whether ANCOVA should be used routinely in experiments rather than a randomized blocks or split-plot design, which may also reduce the error variance. The answer to this question depends on the relative precision of the difference methods with reference to each scenario. Considerable judgment is often required to select the best experimental design and statistical help should be sought at an early stage of an investigation.

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Purpose: In today's competitive scenario, effective supply chain management is increasingly dependent on third-party logistics (3PL) companies' capabilities and performance. The dissemination of information technology (IT) has contributed to change the supply chain role of 3PL companies and IT is considered an important element influencing the performance of modern logistics companies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between IT and 3PLs' performance, assuming that logistics capabilities play a mediating role in this relationship. Design/methodology/approach: Empirical evidence based on a questionnaire survey conducted on a sample of logistics service companies operating in the Italian market was used to test a conceptual resource-based view (RBV) framework linking IT adoption, logistics capabilities and firm performance. Factor analysis and ordinary least square (OLS) regression analysis have been used to test hypotheses. The focus of the paper is multidisciplinary in nature; management of information systems, strategy, logistics and supply chain management approaches have been combined in the analysis. Findings: The results indicate strong relationships among data gathering technologies, transactional capabilities and firm performance, in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness. Moreover, a positive correlation between enterprise information technologies and 3PL financial performance has been found. Originality/value: The paper successfully uses the concept of logistics capabilities as mediating factor between IT adoption and firm performance. Objective measures have been proposed for IT adoption and logistics capabilities. Direct and indirect relationships among variables have been successfully tested. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.