Risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments of the statins

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Information system planning in drug service:a case study

The development of an information system in Caribbean public sector organisations is usually seen as a matter of installing hardware and software according to a directive from senior management, without much planning. This causes huge investment in procuring hardware and software without improving overall system performance. Increasingly, Caribbean organisations are looking for assurances on information system performance before making investment decisions not only to satisfy the funding agencies, but also to be competitive in this dynamic and global business world. This study demonstrates an information system planning approach using a process-reengineering framework. Firstly, the stakeholders for the business functions are identified along with their relationships and requirements. Secondly, process reengineering is carried out to develop the system requirements. Accordingly, information technology is selected through detailed system requirement analysis. Thirdly, cost-benefit analysis, identification of critical success factors and risk analysis are carried out to strengthen the selection. The entire methodology has been demonstrated through an information system project in the Barbados drug service, a public sector organisation in the Caribbean.

Vaccine adjuvant systems: enhancing the efficacy of sub-unit protein antigens

Vaccination remains a key tool in the protection and eradication of diseases. However, the development of new safe and effective vaccines is not easy. Various live organism based vaccines currently licensed, exhibit high efficacy; however, this benefit is associated with risk, due to the adverse reactions found with these vaccines. Therefore, in the development of vaccines, the associated risk-benefit issues need to be addressed. Sub-unit proteins offer a much safer alternative; however, their efficacy is low. The use of adjuvanted systems have proven to enhance the immunogenicity of these sub-unit vaccines through protection (i.e. preventing degradation of the antigen in vivo) and enhanced targeting of these antigens to professional antigen-presenting cells. Understanding of the immunological implications of the related disease will enable validation for the design and development of potential adjuvant systems. Novel adjuvant research involves the combination of both pharmaceutical analysis accompanied by detailed immunological investigations, whereby, pharmaceutically designed adjuvants are driven by an increased understanding of mechanisms of adjuvant activity, largely facilitated by description of highly specific innate immune recognition of components usually associated with the presence of invading bacteria or virus. The majority of pharmaceutical based adjuvants currently being investigated are particulate based delivery systems, such as liposome formulations. As an adjuvant, liposomes have been shown to enhance immunity against the associated disease particularly when a cationic lipid is used within the formulation. In addition, the inclusion of components such as immunomodulators, further enhance immunity. Within this review, the use and application of effective adjuvants is investigated, with particular emphasis on liposomal-based systems. The mechanisms of adjuvant activity, analysis of complex immunological characteristics and formulation and delivery of these vaccines are considered.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Drug testing: a way to weed out users?

The aim of this paper is to provide managers and Human Resource executives with the basis for making drug testing policy in their organisations by presenting a critical review of existing literature on Workplace Drug Testing (WDT) and related areas which have been structured into the key areas.The key finding is whilst WDT is becoming more and more widely used, the rationale for this in terms of organizational effectiveness and safety is far from clear. Also there are significant ethical issues associated with WDT which are not always fully considered by organisations. Similarly, a cost/benefit analysis for particular organisations may well show little reason to embark on a testing policy. As a result of our review, we recommend that practitioners take a critical view of proposals introducing WDT since in many cases there is little upside to such a policy and a largely under-researched downside. There are also wider implications for society as a whole since the issue of drug taking as a whole is clearly a matter of great importance to practically every country in the world. The workplace is not at all immune from the impact of drug taking and perhaps a knee-jerk response by managers is to attempt to exclude anyone with any sort of drug habit through the use of WDT. This type of review with a specific HR focus has not been carried out before despite several calls for a more rational approach to the area.

An investigation of the retail marketing mix and its effectiveness in small shops

The recent history of small shop and independent retailing has been one of decline. The most desirable form of assistance is the provision of information which will increase the efficiency model of marketing mix effeciveness which may be applied in small scale retailing. A further aim is to enhance theoretical development in the marketing field. Recent changes in retailing have affected location, product range, pricing and promotion practices. Although a large number of variables representing aspects of the marketing mix may be identified, it is not possible, on the basis of currently available information, to quantify or rank them according to their effect on sales performance. In designing a suitable study a major issue is that of access to a suitable representative sample of small retailers. The publish nature of the retail activities involved facilitates the use of a novel observation approach to data collection. A cross-sectional survey research design was used focussing on a clustered random sample of greengrocers and gent's fashion outfitters in the West Midlands. Linear multiple regression was the main analytical technique. Powerful regression models were evolved for both types of retailing. For greengrocers the major influences on trade are pedestrian traffic and shelf display space. For gent's outfitters they are centrality-to-other shopping, advertising and shelf display space. The models may be utilised by retailers to determine the relative strength of marketing mix variables. The level of precision is not sufficient to permit cost benefit analysis. Comparison of the findings for the two distinct kinds of business studied suggests an overall model of marketing mix effectiveness might be based on frequency of purchase, homogeneity of the shopping environment, elasticity of demand and bulk characteristics of the good sold by a shop.

Microcomputers for civil engineering consultancy in developing countries

The civil engineering industry generally regards new methods and technology with a high amount of scepticism, preferring to use traditional and trusted methods. During the 1980s competition for civil engineering consultancy work in the world has become fierce. Halcrow recognised the need to maintain and improve their competitive edge over other consultants. The use of new technology in the form of microcomputers was seen to be one method to maintain and improve their repuation in the world. This thesis examines the role of microcomputers in civil engineering consultancy with particular reference to overseas projects. The involvement of civil engineers with computers, both past and present, has been investigated and a survey of the use of microcomputers by consultancies was carried out, the results are presented and analysed. A resume of the state-of-the-art of microcomputer technology was made. Various case studies were carried out in order to examine the feasibility of using microcomputers on overseas projects. One case study involved the examination of two projects in Bangladesh and is used to illustrate the requirements and problems encountered in such situations. Two programming applications were undertaken, a dynamic programming model of a single site reservoir and the simulation of the Bangladesh gas grid system. A cost-benefit analysis of a water resources project using microcomputers in the Aguan Valley, Honduras was carried out. Although the initial cost of microcomputers is often small, the overall costs can prove to be very high and are likely to exceed the costs of traditional computer methods. A planned approach for the use of microcomputers is essential in order to reap the expected benefits and recommendations for the implementation of such an approach are presented.

The effect of major roads upon the local economy:a study of industrial location and its effects

The economic effects of road building (beyond those accounted for in cost-benefit analysis) are not well understood. This thesis examines the issues surrounding those effects and attempts to clarify the relationship between road building and industrial location and to identify the effect on employment of that location. The literature reviewed leads to some doubt as to the efficacy of roads as an economic tool. A scries of interviews with representatives of business and property professionals in three areas adjacent to motorways is carried out. These covered the firms' location or relocation decisions, their production costs, transport needs and employment. The conclusions drawn echo the above statements based on reviewed literature: 1. There was a general lack of knowledge of transport within a firm despite subjects' very good understanding of the rest of the firms' operations. 2. The importance of major roads to the business location decision and its perceived importance to the operations of the firms was low. Property professionals sec roads as an effective marketing tool. 3. Firms have a tendency to shed labour upon relocation although this does not necessarily constitute a net loss of employment but a redistribution. Recommendations are made for further research.

State-of-the-art in integrated vehicle health management

Cranfield University in collaboration with The Boeing Company have set up a Centre of Excellence in IVHM on the University?s technology park. Sponsored by the East of England Development Agency (EEDA), the Centre carries out pre-competitive research and development of IVHM technologies for the benefit of industrial partners. In addition, the dedicated facilities and university staff provide an unparalleled educational environment for learning and applying IVHM technologies. Boeing is actively involved in the creation and work of the Centre through its enterprise-wide Phantom Works technology organization. This paper will describe the organisation and operation of the Centre and will illustrate its activities by describing a research project being carried out in the Centre. This project is a demonstration of an end to end IVHM system beginning with cost/benefit analysis and extending to maintenance, logistics and operations decision support.

Dietary enrichment with almond (Prunus amygdalis) supplementation: effects on CVD risk biomarkers

Epidemiological evidence suggests that diets rich in fruits, vegetables and pulses reduce the risk of CVD. The Physicians Health Study has demonstrated reduction of CHD death with regular nut consumption1. One major modifiable risk factor for CHD is an unhealthy diet. Thus, an almondenrichment study has been undertaken to examine the benefit of almonds (Prunus amygdalis) in healthy individuals either with or without significant risk of vascular disease. Almonds contain various macronutrients (low SFA content, absence of cholesterol and high MUFA content) and micronutrients, including vitamin E, polyphenols and arginine, which afford vascular benefit. The effects of almond consumption (25 g/d for 4 weeks followed by 50 g/d for 4 weeks) were evaluated in three non-smoking subject groups: healthy male volunteers between the ages of 18 and 35 years (n 15); men at risk of heart disease between the ages of 18 and 35 years (n 12); mature men and women >50 years of age (n 18). A fourth control group (n 14) were followed over 8 weeks without dietary almond enrichment as a treatment control. None of the subjects withdrew from the study and 90% completed the study. The interim results of the study showed that in the three active groups there was little evidence for a change in total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol. In the mature group there was a trend towards increasing HDL-cholesterol. The mature and ‘at-risk’ groups also showed a significant changes in systolic blood pressure (P<0.05) during almond consumption. The healthy group showed a decrease in diastolic blood pressure (P<0.05). The ‘at-risk’ group showed a significant increase (P<0.05) in flowmediated dilation after 8 weeks of almond consumption. Data analysis is ongoing, with completion of the study in November 2007. The beneficial effects of almond consumption on flow-mediated dilation and blood pressure may be attributed to the high content in almonds of arginine, which serves as a precursor to the vasodilatory molecule, NO.

Project time risk analysis through simulation

An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.

Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Reducing the risk of sexually transmitted infections in genitourinary medicine clinic patients:A systematic review and meta-analysis of behavioural interventions

Objectives: Are behavioural interventions effective in reducing the rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic patients? Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles. Data sources: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Cochrane Library Controlled Clinical Trials Register, National Research Register (1966 to January 2004). Review methods: Randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions in sexual health clinic patients were included if they reported change to STI rates or self reported sexual behaviour. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad score and results pooled using random effects meta-analyses where outcomes were consistent across studies. Results: 14 trials were included; 12 based in the United States. Experimental interventions were heterogeneous and most control interventions were more structured than typical UK care. Eight trials reported data on laboratory confirmed infections, of which four observed a greater reduction in their intervention groups (in two cases this result was statistically significant, p<0.05). Seven trials reported consistent condom use, of which six observed a greater increase among their intervention subjects. Results for other measures of sexual behaviour were inconsistent. Success in reducing STIs was related to trial quality, use of social cognition models, and formative research in the target population. However, effectiveness was not related to intervention format or length. Conclusions: While results were heterogeneous, several trials observed reductions in STI rates. The most effective interventions were developed through extensive formative research. These findings should encourage further research in the United Kingdom where new approaches to preventing STIs are urgently required.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.