Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

The impact of portfolio diversification on trading rule profits:some evidence for UK share portfolios

This paper demonstrates how the autocorrelation structure of UK portfolio returns is linked to dynamic interrelationships among the component securities of that portfolio. Moreover, portfolio return autocorrelation is shown to be an increasing function of the number of securities in the portfolio. Since the security interrelationships seemed to be more a product of their history of non-synchronous trading than of systematic industry-related phenomena, it should not be possible to exploit the high levels of return persistence using trading rules. We show that rules designed to exploit this portfolio autocorrelation structure do not produce economic profits.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

The return of the Prince of Denmark: a survey on recent developments in the economics of innovation

It is well known that innovation is the engine that drives the growth machine of modern capitalist economies. Therefore, not surprisingly, substantial attention has been devoted by economists to the process behind the production of innovations. Three areas have recently emerged as relevant in the field. These are: the impact of spillovers on productivity; the different forms of R&D cooperation and the role of patents in fostering innovations when these are cumulative. In this paper I summarise the relevant literature in these three areas by discussing where the current literature stands and what are its future developments.

Soliton generation from randomly modulated return-to-zero pulses

We consider return-to-zero (RZ) pulses with random phase modulation propagating in a nonlinear channel (modelled by the integrable nonlinear Schrödinger equation, NLSE). We suggest two different models for the phase fluctuations of the optical field: (i) Gaussian short-correlated fluctuations and (ii) generalized telegraph process. Using the rectangular-shaped pulse form we demonstrate that the presence of phase fluctuations of both types strongly influences the number of solitons generated in the channel. It is also shown that increasing the correlation time for the random phase fluctuations affects the coherent content of a pulse in a non-trivial way. The result obtained has potential consequences for all-optical processing and design of optical decision elements.

Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

Perception of concurrent sentences with harmonic or frequency-shifted voiced excitation:performance of human listeners and of computational models based on autocorrelation

Keyword identification in one of two simultaneous sentences is improved when the sentences differ in F0, particularly when they are almost continuously voiced. Sentences of this kind were recorded, monotonised using PSOLA, and re-synthesised to give a range of harmonic ?F0s (0, 1, 3, and 10 semitones). They were additionally re-synthesised by LPC with the LPC residual frequency shifted by 25% of F0, to give excitation with inharmonic but regularly spaced components. Perceptual identification of frequency-shifted sentences showed a similar large improvement with nominal ?F0 as seen for harmonic sentences, although overall performance was about 10% poorer. We compared performance with that of two autocorrelation-based computational models comprising four stages: (i) peripheral frequency selectivity and half-wave rectification; (ii) within-channel periodicity extraction; (iii) identification of the two major peaks in the summary autocorrelation function (SACF); (iv) a template-based approach to speech recognition using dynamic time warping. One model sampled the correlogram at the target-F0 period and performed spectral matching; the other deselected channels dominated by the interferer and performed matching on the short-lag portion of the residual SACF. Both models reproduced the monotonic increase observed in human performance with increasing ?F0 for the harmonic stimuli, but not for the frequency-shifted stimuli. A revised version of the spectral-matching model, which groups patterns of periodicity that lie on a curve in the frequency-delay plane, showed a closer match to the perceptual data for frequency-shifted sentences. The results extend the range of phenomena originally attributed to harmonic processing to grouping by common spectral pattern.

All-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management

A method of all-optical passive quasi-regeneration in transoceanic 40 Gbit/s return-to-zero transmission systems with strong dispersion management was described. The use of in-line nonlinear optical loop mirrors (NOLM) by the method was demonstrated. The quasi-regeneration of signals performed by NOLMs was found to improve the systems's performance.

Angel grants employees their wish – for time off in return for high performance:new breed of incentives based on what staff really want from their employer

Purpose – Describes a new breed of HR strategies that encourage employee involvement and commitment as part of high-performance working (HPW). Design/methodology/approach – Focuses on managing employee attitudes and skills through careful attention to leadership, reward and job-design policies. Highlights the differences between people's formal employment contracts and their less formal “psychological contracts”, and emphasizes the importance of the latter. Provides a case study of UK recruitment consultancy Angel Services Group Ltd, which allows staff who meet their daily targets to go home an hour early. Findings – Urges companies to have processes in place to understand the needs of individual employees. This can be done through leadership policies that require all supervisors and managers not only to manage their staff but also to know them as people. Practical implications – Emphasizes that organizations need to see HPW initiatives as part of the normal way of managing people, and not as “flavour of the month”. Originality/value – Outlines a wide range of initiatives that could help organizations to gain their employees' commitment.

Deficient inhibition of return in subclinical OCD only when attention is directed to the threatening aspects of a stimulus

Background - Inhibition of return (IOR) is thought to reflect inhibition of previously attended but irrelevant stimuli. Deficient IOR would increase the likelihood of revisiting previously searched locations or objects, thus leading to unproductive perseverations. Method - Therefore, using a novel IOR task, we investigated whether high scoring checkers attentional biases to threat would result in dysfunctional inhibitory functioning compared to low checkers. In two tasks, we compared 53 subclinical high and 49 low checkers regarding IOR effects for stimuli that were concordant with the concerns of high but not of low checkers (electrical kitchen appliances: e.g., toaster, kettle). The difference between the two tasks was the cueing procedure. In one task, an appliance was switched “ON” and “OFF” as an unpredictive cue, drawing attention to the functionality of the stimulus. Results - In this task, IOR was specifically attenuated in high checkers. In the other task, however, the cue was more abstract in form of a yellow outline that appeared around one of two appliances. Although the appliance was either “ON” or “OFF,” this did not seem to matter and high checkers revealed a typical IOR pattern similar to low checkers. Conclusions - We conclude that IOR mechanisms might not be generally deficient in high checkers; rather only when attention is drawn to the threatening aspects of ecologically valid stimuli, then disengagement of attention is deficient in high checkers. We make suggestions on how our task-specific findings may inform cognitive interventions that target attentional control in the treatment of checking/obsessive–compulsive disorder.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

Inhibition of object identity in inhibition of return:implications for encoding and retrieving inhibitory processes

Inhibition of return (IOR) effects, in which participants detect a target in a cued box more slowly than one in an uncued box, suggest that behavior is aided by inhibition of recently attended irrelevant locations. To investigate the controversial question of whether inhibition can be applied to object identity in these tasks, in the present research we presented faces upright or inverted during cue and/or target sequences. IOR was greater when both cue and target faces were upright than when cue and/or target faces were inverted. Because the only difference between the conditions was the ease of facial recognition, this result indicates that inhibition was applied to object identity. Interestingly, inhibition of object identity affected IOR both whenencoding a cue face andretrieving information about a target face. Accordingly, we propose that episodic retrieval of inhibition associated with object identity may mediate behavior in cuing tasks.