From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statnote 13: a more complex analysis of variance incorporating a 'repeated measures' factor

Experiments combining different groups or factors and which use ANOVA are a powerful method of investigation in applied microbiology. ANOVA enables not only the effect of individual factors to be estimated but also their interactions; information which cannot be obtained readily when factors are investigated separately. In addition, combining different treatments or factors in a single experiment is more efficient and often reduces the sample size required to estimate treatment effects adequately. Because of the treatment combinations used in a factorial experiment, the degrees of freedom (DF) of the error term in the ANOVA is a more important indicator of the ‘power’ of the experiment than the number of replicates. A good method is to ensure, where possible, that sufficient replication is present to achieve 15 DF for the error term of the ANOVA testing effects of particular interest. Finally, it is important to always consider the design of the experiment because this determines the appropriate ANOVA to use. Hence, it is necessary to be able to identify the different forms of ANOVA appropriate to different experimental designs and to recognise when a design is a split-plot or incorporates a repeated measure. If there is any doubt about which ANOVA to use in a specific circumstance, the researcher should seek advice from a statistician with experience of research in applied microbiology.

Activity and affect:repeated within-participant assessment in people after joint replacement surgery

Objective: Between-participant research has shown that high negative affectivity predicts greater activity limitations and vice versa. This study examined both between- and within-participant associations of negative and positive affectivity with activity levels using ecological momentary assessment. Method: Participants were 25 people who had undergone joint replacement surgery 12 months previously. Participants made multiple reports of their activity and positive and negative affectivity over a single day using, a computerized diary. Activity was also objectively recorded using an activity monitor. The following day, participants made a self-report of their activity over the measurement day and general positive and negative affectivity levels were recorded. Results: Higher self-reported walking time over the whole measurement day was associated with higher general positive affectivity but not negative affectivity. However, using ecological momentary assessment, higher diary reports of negative affectivity predicted increased activity levels while positive affectivity neither predicted nor was predicted by activity. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the importance of within-participant methodology in detecting subtle and immediate effects of individuals' mood on behavior that may differ from findings investigating between-participant effects over longer time periods.

Ultra-long laser cavities for non-repeated fibre transmission

We propose the use of ultra-long laser cavities for non-repeated fibre communication. We perform a comparison based on nonlinearity management theory between the performance of ultra-long cavities and other amplification schemes for non-repeated transmission.

Society of Legal Scholars Criminal Justice Section Response to Sexual Offences Guideline Consultation (Sentencing Council Consultation 2012-2013)

Consultation Report