A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Tactile sensing with fibre Bragg gratings and neural networks

Fibre Bragg grating sensors are usually expensive to interrogate, and part of this thesis describes a low cost interrogation system for a group of such devices which can be indefinitely scaled up for larger numbers of sensors without requiring an increasingly broadband light source. It incorporates inherent temperature correction and also uses fewer photodiodes than the number or sensors it interrogates, using neural networks to interpret the photodiode data. A novel sensing arrangement using an FBG grating encapsulated in a silicone polymer is presented. This sensor is capable of distinguishing between different surface profiles with ridges 0.5 to 1mm deep and 2mm pitch and either triangular, semicircular or square in profile. Early experiments using neural networks to distinguish between these profiles are also presented. The potential applications for tactile sensing systems incorporating fibre Bragg gratings and neural networks are explored.

Combining temporal and spectral information with spatial mapping to identify differences between phonological and semantic networks:a magnetoencephalographic approach

Early, lesion-based models of language processing suggested that semantic and phonological processes are associated with distinct temporal and parietal regions respectively, with frontal areas more indirectly involved. Contemporary spatial brain mapping techniques have not supported such clear-cut segregation, with strong evidence of activation in left temporal areas by both processes and disputed evidence of involvement of frontal areas in both processes. We suggest that combining spatial information with temporal and spectral data may allow a closer scrutiny of the differential involvement of closely overlapping cortical areas in language processing. Using beamforming techniques to analyze magnetoencephalography data, we localized the neuronal substrates underlying primed responses to nouns requiring either phonological or semantic processing, and examined the associated measures of time and frequency in those areas where activation was common to both tasks. Power changes in the beta (14-30 Hz) and gamma (30-50 Hz) frequency bandswere analyzed in pre-selected time windows of 350-550 and 500-700ms In left temporal regions, both tasks elicited power changes in the same time window (350-550 ms), but with different spectral characteristics, low beta (14-20 Hz) for the phonological task and high beta (20-30 Hz) for the semantic task. In frontal areas (BA10), both tasks elicited power changes in the gamma band (30-50 Hz), but in different time windows, 500-700ms for the phonological task and 350-550ms for the semantic task. In the left inferior parietal area (BA40), both tasks elicited changes in the 20-30 Hz beta frequency band but in different time windows, 350-550ms for the phonological task and 500-700ms for the semantic task. Our findings suggest that, where spatial measures may indicate overlapping areas of involvement, additional beamforming techniques can demonstrate differential activation in time and frequency domains. © 2012 McNab, Hillebrand, Swithenby and Rippon.

Optical interconnection of core and metro networks

A network concept is introduced that exploits transparent optical grooming of traffic between an access network and a metro core ring network. This network is enabled by an optical router that allows bufferless aggregation of metro network traffic into higher-capacity data streams for core network transmission. A key functionality of the router is WDM to time-division multiplexing (TDM) transmultiplexing.

Forecasting the UK/US exchange rate with divisia monetary models and neural networks

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative merits of the official Simple Sum and the weighted Divisia measures of money. Overall, there are four main findings. First, the majority of the models with fundamentals are able to beat the RW model in forecasting the UK/US exchange rate. Second, the most accurate forecasts of the UK/US exchange rate are obtained with a nonlinear model. Third, taking into account structural breaks reveals that the Divisia aggregate performs better than its Simple Sum counterpart. Finally, Divisia-based models provide more accurate forecasts than Simple Sum-based models provided they are constructed within a nonlinear framework.

Hypercapnia induces cleavage and nuclear localization of RelB protein, giving insight into CO2 sensing and signaling

Carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is increasingly being appreciated as an intracellular signaling molecule that affects inflammatory and immune responses. Elevated arterial CO(2) (hypercapnia) is encountered in a range of clinical conditions, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and as a consequence of therapeutic ventilation in acute respiratory distress syndrome. In patients suffering from this syndrome, therapeutic hypoventilation strategy designed to reduce mechanical damage to the lungs is accompanied by systemic hypercapnia and associated acidosis, which are associated with improved patient outcome. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the beneficial effects of hypercapnia and the relative contribution of elevated CO(2) or associated acidosis to this response remain poorly understood. Recently, a role for the non-canonical NF-?B pathway has been postulated to be important in signaling the cellular transcriptional response to CO(2). In this study, we demonstrate that in cells exposed to elevated CO(2), the NF-?B family member RelB was cleaved to a lower molecular weight form and translocated to the nucleus in both mouse embryonic fibroblasts and human pulmonary epithelial cells (A549). Furthermore, elevated nuclear RelB was observed in vivo and correlated with hypercapnia-induced protection against LPS-induced lung injury. Hypercapnia-induced RelB processing was sensitive to proteasomal inhibition by MG-132 but was independent of the activity of glycogen synthase kinase 3ß or MALT-1, both of which have been previously shown to mediate RelB processing. Taken together, these data demonstrate that RelB is a CO(2)-sensitive NF-?B family member that may contribute to the beneficial effects of hypercapnia in inflammatory diseases of the lung.

Innovation and policy networks:the social shaping of BSE-related technologies and the inadequate assessmant of related risks

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR CONSULTATION

Combining deformable templates and neural networks for HCR

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Spillovers from FDI and local networks:the importance of transactional linkages and vertical keiretsu in Japan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of host country networks and organisation of production in the context of international technology transfer that accompanies foreign direct investment (FDI). Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis is based on unbalanced panel data covering Japanese firms active in two-digit manufacturing sectors over a seven-year period. Given the self-selection problem affecting past sectoral-level studies, using firm-level panel data is a prerequisite to provide robust empirical evidence. Findings – While Japan is thought of as being a technologically advanced country, the results show that vertical productivity spillovers from FDI occur in Japan, but they are sensitive to technological differences between domestic firms and the idiosyncratic Japanese institutional network. FDI in vertically organised keiretsu sectors generates inter-industry spillovers through backward and forward linkages, while FDI within sectors linked to vertical keiretsu activities adversely affects domestic productivity. Overall, our results suggest that the role of vertical keiretsu is more prevalent than that of horizontal keiretsu. Originality/value – Japan’s industrial landscape has been dominated by institutional clusters or networks of inter-firm organisations through reciprocated, direct and indirect ties. However, interactions between inward investors and such institutionalised networks in the host economy are seldom explored. The role and characteristics of local business groups, in the form of keiretsu networks, have been investigated to determine the scale and scope of spillovers from inward FDI to Japanese establishments. This conceptualisation depends on the institutional mechanism and the market structure through which host economies absorb and exploit FDI.

Amyloid β 1-42 induces hypometabolism in human stem cell-derived neuron and astrocyte networks

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia, affecting more than 35 million people worldwide. Brain hypometabolism is a major feature of AD, appearing decades before cognitive decline and pathologic lesions. To date, the majority of studies on hypometabolism in AD have used transgenic animal models or imaging studies of the human brain. As it is almost impossible to validate these findings using human tissue, alternative models are required. In this study, we show that human stem cell-derived neuron and astrocyte cultures treated with oligomers of amyloid beta 1-42 (Aβ1-42) also display a clear hypometabolism, particularly with regard to utilization of substrates such as glucose, pyruvate, lactate, and glutamate. In addition, a significant increase in the glycogen content of cells was also observed. These changes were accompanied by changes in NAD+ /NADH, ATP, and glutathione levels, suggesting a disruption in the energy-redox axis within these cultures. The high energy demands associated with neuronal functions such as memory formation and protection from oxidative stress put these cells at particular risk from Aβ-induced hypometabolism. Further research using this model may elucidate the mechanisms associated with Aβ-induced hypometabolism.

Networked gentrification:placemaking strategies and social networks of middle class gentrifiers in Istanbul

This chapter explores how gentrifiers in Istanbul mobilise their social networks and social capital during the gentrification process, and how their networks are constructed through processes of “ place making” and belonging. In addition, this chapter aims to demonstrate how social capital and social networks work in practice during the gentrification process. It also examines place making and claiming strategies of gentrifiers by focusing on the following questions: (a) What are the spatial strategies of the new middle class, and what is the importance of these strategies?; (b) How are class and spatial boundaries designated in gentrified neighbourhoods?; (c) What kinds of networks and relationships play a role in developing certain housing dispositions or belonging patterns

The redoxomics of PTEN: walking a fine line between damage and signaling:mass spectrometry-based approaches to study the effect of oxidation on PTEN function, structure, and protein-protein interactions

The research described in this PhD thesis focuses on proteomics approaches to study the effect of oxidation on the modification status and protein-protein interactions of PTEN, a redox-sensitive phosphatase involved in a number of cellular processes including metabolism, apoptosis, cell proliferation, and survival. While direct evidence of a redox regulation of PTEN and its downstream signaling has been reported, the effect of cellular oxidative stress or direct PTEN oxidation on PTEN structure and interactome is still poorly defined. In a first study, GST-tagged PTEN was directly oxidized over a range of hypochlorous acid (HOCl) concentration, assayed for phosphatase activity, and oxidative post-translational modifications (oxPTMs) were quantified using LC-MS/MS-based label-free methods. In a second study, GSTtagged PTEN was prepared in a reduced and reversibly H2O2-oxidized form, immobilized on a resin support and incubated with HCT116 cell lysate to capture PTEN interacting proteins, which were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and comparatively quantified using label-free methods. In parallel experiments, HCT116 cells transfected with a GFP-tagged PTEN were treated with H2O2 and PTENinteracting proteins immunoprecipitated using standard methods. Several high abundance HOCl-induced oxPTMs were mapped, including those taking place at amino acids known to be important for PTEN phosphatase activity and protein-protein interactions, such as Met35, Tyr155, Tyr240 and Tyr315. A PTEN redox interactome was also characterized, which identified a number of PTEN-interacting proteins that vary with the reversible inactivation of PTEN caused by H2O2 oxidation. These included new PTEN interactors as well as the redox proteins peroxiredoxin-1 (Prdx1) and thioredoxin (Trx), which are known to be involved in the recycling of PTEN active site following H2O2-induced reversible inactivation. The results suggest that the oxidative modification of PTEN causes functional alterations in PTEN structure and interactome, with fundamental implications for the PTEN signaling role in many cellular processes, such as those involved in the pathophysiology of disease and ageing.

Distributed optimization in transportation and logistics networks

Many important problems in communication networks, transportation networks, and logistics networks are solved by the minimization of cost functions. In general, these can be complex optimization problems involving many variables. However, physicists noted that in a network, a node variable (such as the amount of resources of the nodes) is connected to a set of link variables (such as the flow connecting the node), and similarly each link variable is connected to a number of (usually two) node variables. This enables one to break the problem into local components, often arriving at distributive algorithms to solve the problems. Compared with centralized algorithms, distributed algorithms have the advantages of lower computational complexity, and lower communication overhead. Since they have a faster response to local changes of the environment, they are especially useful for networks with evolving conditions. This review will cover message-passing algorithms in applications such as resource allocation, transportation networks, facility location, traffic routing, and stability of power grids.

Industrial networks of the future:review of research and practice

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? Firstly, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example in assembly operations. Secondly, the increased tendency towards specialization has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies to supply niche markets. Thirdly, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than previously was the case. Fourthly, there is a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. More traditional concepts, such as the “keiretsu” and “chaibol” networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these four fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond.