Statnote 8: statistical power and sample size

Statistical software is now commonly available to calculate Power (P') and sample size (N) for most experimental designs. In many circumstances, however, sample size is constrained by lack of time, cost, and in research involving human subjects, the problems of recruiting suitable individuals. In addition, the calculation of N is often based on erroneous assumptions about variability and therefore such estimates are often inaccurate. At best, we would suggest that such calculations provide only a very rough guide of how to proceed in an experiment. Nevertheless, calculation of P' is very useful especially in experiments that have failed to detect a difference which the experimenter thought was present. We would recommend that P' should always be calculated in these circumstances to determine whether the experiment was actually too small to test null hypotheses adequately.

INTAMAP: the design and implementation of an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a Web Processing Service for the automatic spatial interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an integrated, open source solution. The system couples an open-source Web Processing Service (developed by 52°North), accepting data in the form of standardised XML documents (conforming to the OGC Observations and Measurements standard) with a computing back-end realised in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a markup language designed to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropy, extreme values, and data with known error distributions. Besides a fully automatic mode, the system can be used with different levels of user control over the interpolation process.

The Proinflammatory Environment in Potential Heart and Lung Donors: Prevalence and Impact of Donor Management and Hormonal Therapy

BACKGROUND: Brain stem death can elicit a potentially manipulable cardiotoxic proinflammatory cytokine response. We investigated the prevalence of this response, the impact of donor management with tri-iodothyronine (T3) and methylprednisolone (MP) administration, and the relationship of biomarkers to organ function and transplant suitability. METHODS: In a prospective randomized double-blinded factorially designed study of T3 and MP therapy, we measured serum levels of interleukin-1 and -6 (IL-1 and IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in 79 potential heart or lung donors. Measurements were performed before and after 4 hr of algorithm-based donor management to optimize cardiorespiratory function and +/-hormone treatment. Donors were assigned to receive T3, MP, both drugs, or placebo. RESULTS: Initial IL-1 was elevated in 16% donors, IL-6 in 100%, TNF-alpha in 28%, CRP in 98%, and PCT in 87%. Overall biomarker concentrations did not change between initial and later measurements and neither T3 nor MP effected any change. Both PCT (P =0.02) and TNF-alpha (P =0.044) levels were higher in donor hearts with marginal hemodynamics at initial assessment. Higher PCT levels were related to worse cardiac index and right and left ventricular ejection fractions and a PCT level more than 2 ng x mL(-1) may attenuate any improvement in cardiac index gained by donor management. No differences were observed between initially marginal and nonmarginal donor lungs. A PCT level less than or equal to 2 ng x mL(-1) but not other biomarkers predicted transplant suitability following management. CONCLUSIONS: There is high prevalence of a proinflammatory environment in the organ donor that is not affected by tri-iodothyronine or MP therapy. High PCT and TNF-alpha levels are associated with donor heart dysfunction. (C) 2009 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

INTAMAP: an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a web processing service for the automatic interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the open geospatial consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an open source solution. The system couples the 52-North web processing service, accepting data in the form of an observations and measurements (O&M) document with a computing back-end realized in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a new markup language to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropies and extreme values. In the light of the INTAMAP experience, we discuss the lessons learnt.

The effects of the environment on the stability and expression of genetically engineered plasmids

The lac promoter is widely used in plasmid expression systems, even though it is prone to catabolite repression. As a consequence glycerol is often used as an alternative carbon source. Three plasmids containing various sizes of the staphylococcal protein A (SPA) gene, which are under the control of the lac promoter were investigated in continuous culture, to evaluate the effects of nutrient limitations on their stability and expression. The fears of catabolite repression were dispelled as a low expression plasmid (pPA16) produced a greater amount of truncated SPA under glucose limiting conditions (11 ug mg-1 cell protein) when compared to that using glycerol (8 ug mg-1 cell protein). Segregational instability was also observed under glycerol limiting conditions at all the dilution rates investigated. Whereas pPA16 was relatively stable under glucose limiting conditions, with SPA production being continuous. Experiments using excess glycerol with limited ammonium increased the stability of pPA16, (when compared to limited glycerol) with expression of SPA being continuous but reduced (6 ug mg-1 cell protein). With excess glucose and limited ammonium the copy numbers remained high but expression of SPA paralled that produced under glucose limiting conditions. This might indicate that the higher levels of glucose are reducing expression (catabolite repression) or that the low level of ammonium is affecting protein production. A high expression plasmid (pPA31) produced nearly 100 ug full length SPA mg-1 cell protein, while another high expression plasmid (pPA34) producing truncated SPA proved to be very unstable. An ELISA was developed to detect the SPA produced by these experiments, which could be adapted for western blotting or immunogold probing using electron microscopy. SPA was localised in electron lucent areas present in the periplasmic space of the E. coli host harbouring pPA16. While in the same host containing pPA31, SPA was localised not only in electron lucent areas but also around the whole of the outer-membrane.

The 'Healthy Passport' intervention with older people in an English urban environment:effects of incentives and peer-group organisers in promoting healthy living

This paper reports the evaluation of the effectiveness of incentives (viz. points and prizes) and of peer-group organisers ('older people's champions') in the outcomes of a health-improvement programme for people aged 50 + years in a multi-ethnic district of the West Midlands, England. Health promotion activities Were provided, and adherence, outcome variables and barriers to adherence were assessed over six months, using a `passport' format. Those aged in the fifties and of Asian origin Were under represented, but people of Afro-Caribbean origin were well represented and proportionately most likely to stay in the project. Those of greater age and With more illness were most likely to drop out. There were significant improvements in exercise, diet and the uptake of influenza vaccines and eyesight tests, but slighter improvements in wellbeing. Positive outcomes related to the incentives and to liking the format. The number of reported barriers was associated with lower involvement and lack of change, as was finding activities too difficult, the level of understanding, and transport and mobility problems, but when these were controlled, age did not predict involvement. Enjoying the scheme was related to positive changes, and this was associated with support from the older people's champions.

Institutional environment, innovative entrepreneurial entry and venture capital financing

We analyse the determinants of high growth expectations entrepreneurial entry (HGE) using individual data drawn on working age population, based on the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) surveys for the 1998-2004 period. Individual level explanatory variables are combined with country-level factors. Our results suggest that availability of venture capital and intellectual proper rights protection are strong predictors of HGE. In addition, we also find that innovative start-ups are associated with highest growth expectations in countries with extensive supply of venture capital and strongest intellectual property rights. Once we introduce venture capital, we detect no significant effects of other elements of financial systems on high-powered entry.

Developments in technologies for human-centric mobile computing and applications

With recent expansions in technology, mobile computing continues to play a vital role in all aspects of our lives. Digital technology tools such as Web browsing, media tracking, social media, and emailing have made mobile technology more than just a means of communication but has widespread use in business and social networks. Developments in Technologies for Human-Centric Mobile Computing and Applications is a comprehensive collection of knowledge and practice in the development of technologies in human –centric mobile technology. This book focuses on the developmental aspects of mobile technology; bringing together researchers, educators, and practitioners to encourage readers to think outside of the box.

UK social housing and housing market in England:a statistical review and trends

Around 80% of the 63 million people in the UK live in urban areas where demand for affordable housing is highest. Supply of new dwellings is a long way short of demand and with an average annual replacement rate of 0.5% more than 80% of the existing residential housing stock will still be in use by 2050. A high proportion of owner-occupiers, a weak private rental sector and lack of sustainable financing models render England’s housing market one of the least responsive in the developed world. As an exploratory research the purpose of this paper is to examine the provision of social housing in the United Kingdom with a particular focus on England, and to set out implications for housing associations delivering sustainable community development. The paper is based on an analysis of historical data series (Census data), current macro-economic data and population projections to 2033. The paper identifies a chronic undersupply of affordable housing in England which is likely to be exacerbated by demographic development, changes in household composition and reduced availability of finance to develop new homes. Based on the housing market trends analysed in this paper opportunities are identified for policy makers to remove barriers to the delivery of new affordable homes and for social housing providers to evolve their business models by taking a wider role in sustainable community development.

A modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems

Self-awareness and self-expression are promising architectural concepts for embedded systems to be equipped with to match them with dedicated application scenarios and constraints in the avionic and space-flight industry. Typically, these systems operate in largely undefined environments and are not reachable after deployment for a long time or even never ever again. This paper introduces a reference architecture as well as a novel modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems with transaction level modelling, simulation and detailed modelling capabilities for hardware aspects, precise process chronology execution as well as fine timing resolutions. Furthermore, industrial relevant system sizes with several self-aware and self-expressive nodes can be handled by the modelling and simulation environment.

Public R&D policies and private R&D investment:a survey of the empirical evidence

The importance of R&D investment in explaining economic growth is well documented in the literature. Policies by modern governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting R&D investment. Government funding has, however, become an increasingly scarce resource in times of financial crisis and economic austerity. Hence, it is important that available funds are used and targeted effectively. This paper offers the first systematic review and critical discussion of what the R&D literature has to say currently about the effectiveness of major public R&D policies in increasing private R&D investment. Public policies are considered within three categories, R&D tax credits and direct subsidies, support of the university research system and the formation of high-skilled human capital, and support of formal R&D cooperations across a variety of institutions. Crucially, the large body of more recent literature observes a shift away from the earlier findings that public subsidies often crowd-out private R&D to finding that subsidies typically stimulate private R&D. Tax credits are also much more unanimously than previously found to have positive effects. University research, high-skilled human capital, and R&D cooperation also typically increase private R&D. Recent work indicates that accounting for non-linearities is one area of research that may refine existing results. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A semantic modelling approach to knowledge based statistical software

The topic of this thesis is the development of knowledge based statistical software. The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Some of the issues involved in the development of knowledge based software are presented and a review is given of some of the systems that have been developed so far. The majority of these have moved away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed an expert systems approach. The thesis then proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented, the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package. This involved developing a semantic data model to represent some of the statistically relevant knowledge about data and identifying sets of requirements that should be met for the application of the statistical techniques to be valid. Those areas of statistics covered in the prototype are measures of association and tests of location.

Content-based VLE designs improve learning efficiency in constructivist statistics education

Background: We introduced a series of computer-supported workshops in our undergraduate statistics courses, in the hope that it would help students to gain a deeper understanding of statistical concepts. This raised questions about the appropriate design of the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) in which such an approach had to be implemented. Therefore, we investigated two competing software design models for VLEs. In the first system, all learning features were a function of the classical VLE. The second system was designed from the perspective that learning features should be a function of the course's core content (statistical analyses), which required us to develop a specific-purpose Statistical Learning Environment (SLE) based on Reproducible Computing and newly developed Peer Review (PR) technology. Objectives: The main research question is whether the second VLE design improved learning efficiency as compared to the standard type of VLE design that is commonly used in education. As a secondary objective we provide empirical evidence about the usefulness of PR as a constructivist learning activity which supports non-rote learning. Finally, this paper illustrates that it is possible to introduce a constructivist learning approach in large student populations, based on adequately designed educational technology, without subsuming educational content to technological convenience. Methods: Both VLE systems were tested within a two-year quasi-experiment based on a Reliable Nonequivalent Group Design. This approach allowed us to draw valid conclusions about the treatment effect of the changed VLE design, even though the systems were implemented in successive years. The methodological aspects about the experiment's internal validity are explained extensively. Results: The effect of the design change is shown to have substantially increased the efficiency of constructivist, computer-assisted learning activities for all cohorts of the student population under investigation. The findings demonstrate that a content-based design outperforms the traditional VLE-based design. © 2011 Wessa et al.

Does reviewing lead to better learning and decision making? Answers from a randomized stock market experiment

Background - The literature is not univocal about the effects of Peer Review (PR) within the context of constructivist learning. Due to the predominant focus on using PR as an assessment tool, rather than a constructivist learning activity, and because most studies implicitly assume that the benefits of PR are limited to the reviewee, little is known about the effects upon students who are required to review their peers. Much of the theoretical debate in the literature is focused on explaining how and why constructivist learning is beneficial. At the same time these discussions are marked by an underlying presupposition of a causal relationship between reviewing and deep learning. Objectives - The purpose of the study is to investigate whether the writing of PR feedback causes students to benefit in terms of: perceived utility about statistics, actual use of statistics, better understanding of statistical concepts and associated methods, changed attitudes towards market risks, and outcomes of decisions that were made. Methods - We conducted a randomized experiment, assigning students randomly to receive PR or non–PR treatments and used two cohorts with a different time span. The paper discusses the experimental design and all the software components that we used to support the learning process: Reproducible Computing technology which allows students to reproduce or re–use statistical results from peers, Collaborative PR, and an AI–enhanced Stock Market Engine. Results - The results establish that the writing of PR feedback messages causes students to experience benefits in terms of Behavior, Non–Rote Learning, and Attitudes, provided the sequence of PR activities are maintained for a period that is sufficiently long.