When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Circannual rhythms of maturation in the female rainbow trout and their entrainment by changes in photoperiod

The importance of endogenous rhythms in the photoperiodic control of the annual reproduction cycle in female rainbow trout was investigated. The effect of photoperiod regimes on the different stages of maturation was assessed by recording the timing of ovulation and from quantifying associated changes in serum oestradiol-17,testosterone and total calcium. Maintained under constant 6L:18D and constant temperature for up to four years, rainbow trout exhibited an endogenous rhythm of maturation with a periodicity of approximately one year. This rhythm of maturation appears to be driven by an autonomous circannual oscillator or clock which can be dissociated from the neuroendocrine mechanisms controlling gonadal maturation. Under conditions of constant 18L:6D or LL the periodicity of the maturation rhythm was 5.5-6 months; it is suggested that this periodicity may be caused by a splitting or uncoupling of at least two circannual clocks involved in the control of maturation. Abrupt changes in the length of the photoperiod act as a zeitgeber to entrain the endogenous rhythm of maturation. Whether the timing of maturation is advanced or delayed depends primarily on the direction of the change in photoperiod and its timing in relation to the phase of the rhythm, with the magnitude of the alteration in photoperiod having only a supplementary effect. The effect of specific changes in photoperiod on the entrainment of the maturation cycle can be described in terms of a phase-response curve. Photic information is transduced, probably by the pineal gland, into a daily rhythm of melatonin; exposure of rainbow trout to skeleton and resonance photoperiod regimes indicated that daylength measurement is effected by endogenous circadian clock(s) rather than by hour-glass mechanisms. A gating mechanism is closely associated with the circannual clock which determines the timing of onset of maturation in virgin female rainbow trout, only allowing fish that have attained a threshold stage of development to undergo gonadal maturation. Collectively the results support the hypothesis that the female rainbow trout exhibits an endogenous circannual rhythm of maturation which can be entrained by changes in photoperiod.

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.