Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Financial planning and project cost control techniques applied to building management

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The implications of cost behaviour for profit planning and control

The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

A combination of cyclone and vert techniques for the management of construction projects

Many planning and control tools, especially network analysis, have been developed in the last four decades. The majority of them were created in military organization to solve the problem of planning and controlling research and development projects. The original version of the network model (i.e. C.P.M/PERT) was transplanted to the construction industry without the consideration of the special nature and environment of construction projects. It suited the purpose of setting up targets and defining objectives, but it failed in satisfying the requirement of detailed planning and control at the site level. Several analytical and heuristic rules based methods were designed and combined with the structure of C.P.M. to eliminate its deficiencies. None of them provides a complete solution to the problem of resource, time and cost control. VERT was designed to deal with new ventures. It is suitable for project evaluation at the development stage. CYCLONE, on the other hand, is concerned with the design and micro-analysis of the production process. This work introduces an extensive critical review of the available planning techniques and addresses the problem of planning for site operation and control. Based on the outline of the nature of site control, this research developed a simulation based network model which combines part of the logics of both VERT and CYCLONE. Several new nodes were designed to model the availability and flow of resources, the overhead and operating cost and special nodes for evaluating time and cost. A large software package is written to handle the input, the simulation process and the output of the model. This package is designed to be used on any microcomputer using MS-DOS operating system. Data from real life projects were used to demonstrate the capability of the technique. Finally, a set of conclusions are drawn regarding the features and limitations of the proposed model, and recommendations for future work are outlined at the end of this thesis.

Planning and decision-making for energy recovery from waste at the sub-regional level

This research project has developed a novel decision support system using Geographical Information Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and used it to develop and evaluate energy-from-waste policy options. The system was validated by applying it to the UK administrative areas of Cornwall and Warwickshire. Different strategies have been defined by the size and number of the facilities, as well as the technology chosen. Using sensitivity on the results from the decision support system, it was found that key decision criteria included those affected by cost, energy efficiency, transport impacts and air/dioxin emissions. The conclusions of this work are that distributed small-scale energy-from-waste facilities score most highly overall and that scale is more important than technology design in determining overall policy impact. This project makes its primary contribution to energy-from-waste planning by its development of a Decision Support System that can be used to assist waste disposal authorities to identify preferred energy-from-waste options that have been tailored specifically to the socio-geographic characteristics of their jurisdictional areas. The project also highlights the potential of energy-from-waste policies that are seldom given enough attention to in the UK, namely those of a smaller-scale and distributed nature that often have technology designed specifically to cater for this market.

E-business planning and analysis framework

This chapter reports on a framework that has been successfully used to analyze the e-business capabilities of an organization with a view to developing their e-capability maturity levels. This should be the first stage of any systems development project. The framework has been used widely within start-up companies and well-established companies both large and small; it has been deployed in the service and manufacturing sectors. It has been applied by practitioners and consultants to help improve e-business capability levels, and by academics for teaching and research purposes at graduate and undergraduate levels. This chapter will provide an account of the unique e-business planning and analysis framework (E-PAF) and demonstrate how it works via an abridged version of a case study (selected from hundreds that have been produced). This will include a brief account of the three techniques that are integrated to form the analysis framework: quality function deployment (QFD) (Akao, 1972), the balanced scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan & Norton, 1992), and value chain analysis (VCA) (Porter, 1985). The case study extract is based on an online community and dating agency service identified as VirtualCom which has been produced through a consulting assignment with the founding directors of that company and has not been published previously. It has been chosen because it gives a concise, comprehensive example from an industry that is relatively easy to relate to.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Hierarchical approach to project planning:the case of a petroleum pipeline construction

Projects exposed to an uncertain environment must be adapted to deal with the effective integration of various planning elements and the optimization of project parameters. Time, cost, and quality are the prime objectives of a project that need to be optimized to fulfill the owner's goal. In an uncertain environment, there exist many other conflicting objectives that may also need to be optimized. These objectives are characterized by varying degrees of conflict. Moreover, an uncertain environment also causes several changes in the project plan throughout its life, demanding that the project plan be totally flexible. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision making technique, offers a good solution for this project planning problem. There the planning problem is considered from the owner's perspective, which leads to classifying the project up to the activity level. GP is applied separately at each level, and the formulated models are integrated through information flow. The flexibility and adaptability of the models lies in the ease of updating the model parameters at the required level through changing priorities and/or constraints and transmitting the information to other levels. The hierarchical model automatically provides integration among various element of planning. The proposed methodology is applied in this paper to plan a petroleum pipeline construction project, and its effectiveness is demonstrated.

Using QFD for e-business planning and analysis in a micro-sized enterprise

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show how QFD can be used as part of a structured planning and analysis framework for micro-sized enterprises to build-up their e-business capabilities. Design/methodology/approach - This case study has been produced using a new framework which integrates the balanced scorecard, value chain and quality function deployment techniques into an integrated framework known as the E-Business Planning and Analysis Framework (E-PAF). It has been produced using an action research approach. Findings - A new framework with a supporting case study is provided. This case study has demonstrated that the framework can be applied successfully to micro-sized enterprises (those with less than ten employees) to successfully plan new strategic and technical developments. This will enhance the online service that the company is able to provide. Research limitations/implications - This paper presents a single case study. The technical recommendations are currently being implemented. Originality/value - Such analytical techniques are most commonly associated with large organisations, and are not specifically associated with e-business planning. This paper provides a new framework that will be of general applicability to other similarly sized enterprises that are looking to improve e-business capabilities. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again till the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through above process often results sub-optimal project as financial analysis may eliminate better options, as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system, which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enterprise resource planning and the post bureaucratic organization:'formalization' as trust in the system versus 'solidarity' as trust in individuals

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to use a case study setting involving the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to expose and analyze the conflicts in the characterizations of the post bureaucratic organisation (PBO) in the literature. ERP implementations are often accompanied by increasing levels of stress in organizations that place pressures on organizational relationships and structures. Additionally, ERPs are regarded as introducing their own techno-logic of centralization, standardization and formalization that provides an apparent contrast to the exhortations about employee empowerment. Design/methodology/approach – A case study of ERP implementation in a medium-sized entity is presented. The paper explores aspects of ERP and PBO from the context of postmodern organization theory. Findings – Some concerns about PBO identified in the literature are reflected in the case situation. For example, there is a commitment to give up private time and work flexibly by some employees. The paper also provides evidence of the way the management team substitute their reliance on a key individual knowledge worker for that of an ERP system and external vendor support. Paradoxically, trust in that same knowledge worker and between core users of the system is essential to enable the implementation of the system. Originality/value – This paper adds empirical insight to a predominantly theoretical literature. The case evidence indicates some conflicting implications in the concurrent adoption of PBO and ERP.

Strategic planning and performance:extending the debate

This article extends the debate regarding the relationship between strategic planning and performance. It addresses criticism of previous empirical studies that have largely investigated direct and bi-variate relationships, producing equivocal results. The current study investigates the mediating effects of four types of flexibility on the strategic planning and performance relationship. Flexibility is defined as the extent to which new and alternative decisions are generated and considered in strategic planning, allowing for positive organizational change and adaptation to environmental turbulence. Through investigating simultaneous equations in a structural equation model, we find that two types of flexibility mediate the relationship between strategic planning and financial performance, while the other two types mediate the relationship between strategic planning and non-financial performance. The results are new empirical insights that have not been previously reported.

Achieving cost competitiveness with an agent based integrated process planning and production scheduling system

From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.

Addressing the project implementation challenges in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry: an investigative approach towards improving project delivery

For many decades, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been widely known for being a reliable oil exporter. This fact, however, has not exempted it from facing significant domestic energy challenges. One of the most pressing of these challenges involves bridging the widening electricity supply-demand gap where, currently, the demand is growing at a very fast rate. One crucial means to address this challenge is through delivering power supply projects with maximum efficiency. Project delivery delay, however, is not uncommon in this highly capital-intensive industry, indicating electricity supplies are not coping with the demand increases. To provide a deeper insight into the challenges of project implementation and efficient practice, this research adopts a pragmatic approach by triangulating literature, questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The research was conducted in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry – Western Operating Area. A total of 105 usable questionnaires were collected, and 28 recorded, semi-structured interviews were conducted, analysed and synthesised to produce a conceptual model of what constitutes the project implementation challenges in the investigated industry. This was achieved by conducting a comprehensive ranking analysis applied to all 58 identified and surveyed factors which, according to project practitioners in the investigated industry, contribute to project delay. 28 of these project delay factors were selected as the "most important" ones. Factor Analysis was employed to structure these 28 most important project delay factors into the following meaningful set of 7 project implementation challenges: Saudi Electricity Company's contractual commitments, Saudi Electricity Company's communication and coordination effectiveness, contractors' project planning and project control effectiveness, consultant-related aspects, manpower challenges and material uncertainties, Saudi Electricity Company's tendering system, and lack of project requirements clarity. The study has implications for industry policy in that it provides a coherent assessment of the key project stakeholders' central problems. From this analysis, pragmatic recommendations are proposed that, if enacted, will minimise the significance of the identified problems on future project outcomes, thus helping to ensure the electricity supply-demand gap is diminished.