24 resultados para profit forecasts

em Aston University Research Archive


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This paper examines the extent to which foreign direct investment (FDI) in selected UK manufacturing sectors has an impact on reported profits in domestic firms. Foreign manufacturing firms are characterized by relatively high labour productivity and low wage shares. Entry by foreign firms not only impacts on domestic market shares, but also on domestic cost conditions. As a result, profitability in the indigenous sector may be reduced. There are a number of policy implications of this analysis which are explored.

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This paper analyses the mechanisms through which profit-sharing schemes may induce debt constrained firms to improve technical efficiency over time to guarantee positive profits. This hypothesis is first formalised in a partial equilibrium framework and then is tested on a sample of Italian traditional and cooperative firms. Technical efficiency change indexes are computed by DEA. These are regressed on a measure of finance constraints to analyse their impact on firms’ efficiency growth. The results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively the growth in efficiency in firms with profit-sharing schemes.

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In for-profit organizations efficiency measurement with reference to the potential for profit augmentation is particularly important as is its decomposition into technical, and allocative components. Different profit efficiency approaches can be found in the literature to measure and decompose overall profit efficiency. In this paper, we highlight some problems within existing approaches and propose a new measure of profit efficiency based on a geometric mean of input/output adjustments needed for maximizing profits. Overall profit efficiency is calculated through this efficiency measure and is decomposed into its technical and allocative components. Technical efficiency is calculated based on a non-oriented geometric distance function (GDF) that is able to incorporate all the sources of inefficiency, while allocative efficiency is retrieved residually. We also define a measure of profitability efficiency which complements profit efficiency in that it makes it possible to retrieve the scale efficiency of a unit as a component of its profitability efficiency. In addition, the measure of profitability efficiency allows for a dual profitability interpretation of the GDF measure of technical efficiency. The concepts introduced in the paper are illustrated using a numerical example.

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This paper extends the original service profit chain by examining the role of relational capabilities with employees, customers and strategic partners on process and performance outcomes in a business-to-business context. More specifically, we demonstrate how satisfied and loyal employees are better in developing relationships with customers and strategic partners. These relationships enable firms to be more responsive towards customers and become more innovative, which increase customer satisfaction and loyalty and, ultimately, financial performance. Our results provide support for the development of relational capabilities in a business-to-business environment by extending the service profit chain (SPC) model. However, we find that while the development of strong customer relationships contributes to an improved service responsiveness of the firm, strategic partners do not.

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The majority of research on the pharmaceutical sector has focused on an overall micro economic, medical oriented welfare issues, whereas the marketing management role of the innovative drug manufacturer has to a large extent been disregarded. Using the case of Turkey, through a series of in-depth interviews with highly innovative companies, other marketing management possibilities to develop pricing strategies and plan for profit are explored based on broader definitions of value and transparency. Our results suggest that pharmaceutical companies as well as governments might have a too narrow focus of value and underestimate the potential long term benefits of a broader approach to marketing management and long term relationships between the various stakeholders.

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This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

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The adaptation of profit sharing creates a fundamental change in employee compensation by making a portion of total compensation directly dependent upon the total profits of the firm and the performance of the employee. The major goal of this study is to test for and measure the impact of the independent variable, a profit sharing plan implemented at Shahvand Industrial Company, upon communication behaviour, communication outcomes, and organisational outcomes as dependent variables. A quasi-experimental non-equivalent control group design with pre and posttest was the research design used to test the effects of profit sharing participation on permanent-part-time operative employees implemented by SIC. Several conclusions were reached as a result of the statistical analysis of the data collected in this study. Overall, few of the hypothesised effects of profit sharing participation appeared to have been realised according to the empirical results of this study. The finding that certain communication behaviours were more favourable for profit sharing participants than for non-participants support the general hypothesis of the integrated profit sharing model. The observed changes in communication behaviours indicate that information sharing and idea generation are important components of the profit sharing process. The results of this study did not reveal any changes in either communication or organisational outcomes. A significant finding of this study is that the implementation of profit sharing plans require a relatively long period of time. Patience is required to achieve high levels of success and management must make long-term commitment to profit sharing. Findings of this study should be interpreted with caution, taking into consideration that most of the previo.us researches on profit sharing have been conducted in Western European or American countries, while the current study was based on data collected from an organisation in a developing country. This implies that the findings reported in this thesis may not be comparable in certain respects to results derived from companies in major industrialised economies.

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This thesis presents a number of methodological developments that were raised by a real life application to measuring the efficiency of bank branches. The advent of internet banking and phone banking is changing the role of bank branches from a predominantly transaction-based one to a sales-oriented role. This fact requires the development of new forms of assessing and comparing branches of a bank. In addition, performance assessment models must also take into account the fact that bank branches are service and for-profit organisations to which providing adequate service quality as well as being profitable are crucial objectives. This study analyses bank branches performance in their new roles in three different areas: their effectiveness in fostering the use of new transaction channels such as the internet and the telephone (transactional efficiency); their effectiveness in increasing sales and their customer base (operational efficiency); and their effectiveness in generating profits without compromising the quality of service (profit efficiency). The chosen methodology for the overall analysis is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The application attempted here required some adaptations to existing DEA models and indeed some new models so that some specialities of our data could be handled. These concern the development of models that can account for negative data, the development of models to measure profit efficiency, and the development of models that yield production units with targets that are nearer to their observed levels than targets yielded by traditional DEA models. The application of the developed models to a sample of Portuguese bank branches allowed their classification according to the three performance dimensions (transactional, operational and profit efficiency). It also provided useful insights to bank managers regarding how bank branches compare between themselves in terms of their performance, and how, in general, the three performance dimensions are connected between themselves.

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This thesis explores the strategic positioning [SP] activities of charitable organizations [COs] within the wider sector of voluntary and non-profit organizations [VNPOs] in the UK. Despite the growing interest in SP for British COs in an increasingly competitive operating environment and changing policy context, there is lack of research in mainstream marketing/strategic management studies on this topic for charities, whilst the specialist literature on VNPOs has neglected the study of SP. The thesis begins with an extended literature review of the concept of positioning in both commercial [for-profit] and charitable organizations. It concludes that the majority of theoretical underpinnings of SP that are prescribed for COs have been derived from the commercial strategy/marketing literature. There is currently a lack of theoretical and conceptual models that can accommodate the particular context of COs and guide strategic positioning practice in them. The research contained in this thesis is intended to fill some of these research gaps. It combines an exploratory postal survey and four cross-sectional case studies to describe the SP activities of a sample of general welfare and social care charities and identifies the key factors that influence their choice of positioning strategies [PSs]. It concludes that charitable organizations have begun to undertake SP to differentiate their organizations from other charities that provide similar services. Their PSs have both generic features, and other characteristics that are unique to them. A combination of external environmental and organizational factors influences their choice of PSs. A theoretical model, which depicts these factors, is developed in this research. It highlights the role of governmental influence, other external environmental forces, the charity’s mission, organizational resources, and influential stakeholders in shaping the charity’s PS. This study concludes by considering the theoretical and managerial implications of the findings on the study of charitable and non-profit organizations.

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The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

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The tendency of managers to focus on short-term results rather than on sustained company success is of particular importance to retail marketing managers, because marketing activities involve expenditures which may only pay off in the longer term. To address the issue of myopic management, our study shows how the complexity of the service profit chain (SPC) can cause managers to make suboptimal decisions. Hence, our paper departs from past research by recognizing that understanding the temporal interplay between operational investments, employee satisfaction, customer satisfaction, and operating profit is essential to achieving sustained success. In particular, we intend to improve understanding of the functioning of the SPC with respect to time lags and feedback loops. Results of our large-scale longitudinal study set in a multi-outlet retail chain reveal time-lag effects between operational investments and employee satisfaction, as well as between customer satisfaction and performance. These findings, along with evidence of a negative interaction effect of employee satisfaction on the relationship between current performance and future investments, show the substantial risk of mismanaging the SPC. We identify specific situations in which the dynamic approach leads to superior marketing investment decisions, when compared to the conventional static view of the SCP. These insights provide valuable managerial guidance for effectively managing the SPC over time. © 2012 New York University.

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The majority of research on the pharmaceutical sector has focused on an overall micro economic, medical oriented welfare issues, whereas the marketing management role of the innovative drug manufacturer has to a large extent been disregarded. Using the case of Turkey, through a series of in-depth interviews with highly innovative companies, other marketing management possibilities are explored based on broader definitions of value and transparency. Our results suggest that pharmaceutical companies as well as the government might have a too narrow focus of value and underestimate the potential long term benefits of a broader approach to marketing management and long term relationships between the various stakeholders.

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The aim of this paper is to illustrate the measurement of productive efficiency using Nerlovian indicator and metafrontier with data envelopment analysis techniques. Further, we illustrate how profit efficiency of firms operating in different regions can be aggregated into one overarching frontier. Sugarcane production in three regions in Kenya has been used to illustrate these concepts. Results show that the sources of inefficiency in all regions are both technical and allocative, but allocative efficiency contributes more to the overall Nerlovian (in)efficiency indicator. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.