Dynamical local models for segmentation and prediction of financial time series

In the analysis and prediction of many real-world time series, the assumption of stationarity is not valid. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We introduce a new model which combines a dynamic switching (controlled by a hidden Markov model) and a non-linear dynamical system. We show how to train this hybrid model in a maximum likelihood approach and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and financial data.

Mixing the grant cocktail:towards an understanding of the outcomes of financial support to small firms

One of the key policy objectives of government at national and regional level, is to overcome the constraints preventing local industry achieving greater competitiveness in the international market-place. This paper examines the impact of grant assistance to Northern Ireland small firms delivered over the period 1994 ^ 97 by the former Local Enterprise Development Unit through its Growth Business Support Programme (GBSP). Previous work by the authors showed that there was some tentative evidence to suggest a link between employment growth and grant aid provided to very small firms (fewer than 10 employees) assisted under the GBSP. The central objective of the empirical work reported in this paper is to extend the previous analysis by understanding the extent to which the value of financial assistance influences growth (employment, turnover, and productivity measures) and if differential impacts arise depending on the nature and timing (lag structures) of the grant assistance.

The global audit profession and the international financial architecture:understanding regulatory relationships at a time of financial crisis

This paper explores how regulatory relationships in the global audit arena are being affected by the current financial crisis. Key policy initiatives and debates are analyzed, along with institutional interactions, in particular between the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), international regulators and the large audit firms. The events are placed in the context of the new international financial architecture which has developed over the last decade. Using the illustrative lens of bank auditing, questions are asked of the nature and status of audit practice and the regulatory arrangements governing such practice. The paper shows the active nature of the regulatory responses to the crisis and the shifting and competing influences among key regulatory and professional participants in the global audit arena. Emphasis is placed on the need for audit researchers to be sensitive to the developing global financial architecture, and its potential implications for the study of audit practice in different national and international contexts.

An aggregate measure of financial ratios using a multiplicative DEA model

This paper examines the problems in the definition of the General Non-Parametric Corporate Performance (GNCP) and introduces a multiplicative linear programming as an alternative model for corporate performance. We verified and tested a statistically significant difference between the two models based on the application of 27 UK industries using six performance ratios. Our new model is found to be a more robust performance model than the previous standard Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model.

Independent component analysis and feature extraction of financial time series

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Prediction, volatility and complexity of financial markets:a move-based approach

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Computer simulation of the Cont-Bouchaud percolation model of financial markets

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Capital and asset structures and their influence on the performance of Egyptian nationalised industries:an application of financial statement analysis and survey

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The changing nature of financial management in local government 1980-85, with particular reference to a rate capped authority.

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Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Financial liberalization and dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions in the Southeast Asian countries

This thesis examines the dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions for six Southeast Asian countries. The study provides empirical evidence on the impacts of changes in the firm-level financing decisions during the period of financial liberalization by considering the debt and equity financing decisions of a set of non-financial firms. The empirical results show that firms in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Korea have relatively faster speed of adjustment than other Southeast Asian countries to attain optimal debt and equity ratios in response to banking sector and stock market liberalization. In addition, contrary to widely held belief that firms adjust their financial ratios to industry levels, the results indicate that industry factors do not significantly impact on the speed of capital structure adjustments. This study also shows that non-linear estimation methods are more appropriate than linear estimation methods for capturing changes in capital structure. The empirical results also show that international stock market integration of these countries has significantly reduced the equity risk premium as well as the firm-level cost of equity capital. Thus stock market liberalization is associated with a decrease in the cost of equity capital of the firms. Developments in the securities markets infrastructure have also reduced the cost of equity capital. However, with increased integration there is the possibility of capital outflows from the emerging markets, which might reverse the pattern of decrease in cost of capital in these markets.

Evaluating the impact of institutional logic on the corporate Internet reporting by Egyptian listed companies

This study explores the institutional logic(s) governing the Corporate Internet Reporting (CIR) by Egyptian listed companies. In doing so, a mixed methods approach was followed. The qualitative part seeks to understand the perceptions, believes, values, norms, that are commonly shared by Egyptian companies which engaged in these practices. Consequently, seven cases of large listed Egyptian companies operating in different industries have been examined. Other stakeholders and stockholders have been interviewed in conjunction with these cases. The quantitative part consists of two studies. The first one is descriptive aiming to specify whether the induced logic(s) from the seven cases are commonly embraced by other Egyptian companies. The second study is explanatory aiming to investigate the impact of several institutional and economic factors on the extent of CIR, types of the online information, quality of the websites as well as the Internet facilities. Drawing on prior CIR literature, four potential types of logics could be inferred: efficiency, legitimacy, technical and marketing based logics. In Egypt, legitimacy logic was initially embraced in the earlier years after the Internet inception. latter, companies confronted radical challenges in their internal and external environments which impelled them to raise their websites potentialities to defend their competitive position; either domestically or internationally. Thus, two new logics emphasizing marketing and technical perspectives have emerged, in response. Strikingly, efficiency based logic is not the most prevalent logic driving CIR practices in Egypt as in the developed countries. The empirical results support this observation and show that almost half of Egyptian listed companies 115 as on December 2010 possessed an active website, half of them 62 disclosed part of their financial and accounting information, during December 2010 to February 2011. Less than half of the websites 52 offered latest annual financial statements. Fewer 33(29%) websites provided shareholders and stock information or included a separate section for corporate governance 25 (22%) compared to 50 (44%) possessing a section for news or press releases. Additionally, the variations in CIR practices, as well as timeliness and credibility were also evident even at industrial level. After controlling for firm size, profitability, leverage, liquidity, competition and growth, it was realized that industrial companies and those facing little competition tend to disclose less. In contrast, management size, foreign investors, foreign listing, dispersion of shareholders and firm size provided significant and positive impact individually or collectively. In contrast, neither audit firm, nor most of performance indicators (i.e. profitability, leverage, and liquidity) did exert an influence on the CIR practices. Thus, it is suggested that CIR practices are loosely institutionalised in Egypt, which necessitates issuing several regulative and processional rules to raise the quality attributes of Egyptian websites, especially, timeliness and credibility. Beside, this study highlights the potency of assessing the impact of institutional logic on CIR practices and suggests paying equal attention to the institutional and economic factors when comparing the CIR practices over time or across different institutional environments in the future.