7 resultados para predictive factors

em Aston University Research Archive


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PURPOSE: To examine which baseline measurements constitute predictive factors for axial length growth over 2 years in children wearing orthokeratology contact lenses (OK) and single-vision spectacles (SV). METHODS: Sixty-one children were prospectively assigned to wear either OK (n = 31) or SV (n = 30) for 2 years. The primary outcome measure (dependent variable) was axial length change at 2 years relative to baseline. Other measurements (independent variables) were age, age of myopia onset, gender, myopia progression 2 years before baseline and baseline myopia, anterior chamber depth, corneal power and shape (p value), and iris and pupil diameters as well as parental refraction. The contribution of all independent variables to the 2-year change in axial length was assessed using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. RESULTS: After univariate analyses, smaller increases in axial length were found in the OK group compared to the SV group in children who were older, had earlier onset of myopia, were female, had lower rate of myopia progression before baseline, had less myopia at baseline, had longer anterior chamber depth, had greater corneal power, had more prolate corneal shape, had larger iris diameter, had larger pupil sizes, and had lower levels of parental myopia (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analyses, older age and greater corneal power were associated with smaller increases in axial length in the OK group (both p < 0.05), whereas in SV wearers, smaller iris diameter was associated with smaller increases in axial length (p = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Orthokeratology is a successful treatment option in controlling axial elongation compared to SV in children of older age, had earlier onset of myopia, were female, had lower rate of myopia progression before baseline, had lower myopia at baseline, had longer anterior chamber depth, had greater corneal power, had more prolate corneal shape, had larger iris and pupil diameters, and had lower levels of parental myopia. © American Academy of Optometry.

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Myopia is a refractive condition and develops because either the optical power of the eye is abnormally great or the eye is abnormally long, the optical consequences being that the focal length of the eye is too short for the physical length of the eye. The increase in axial length has been shown to match closely the dioptric error of the eye, in that a lmm increase in axial length usually generates 2 to 3D of myopia. The most common form of myopia is early-onset myopia (EO M) which occurs between 6 to 14 years of age. The second most common form of myopia is late-onset myopia (LOM) which emerges in late teens or early twenties, at a time when the eye should have ceased growing. The prevalence of LOM is increasing and research has indicated a link with excessive and sustained nearwork. The aim of this thesis was to examine the ocular biometric correlates associated with LOM and EOM development and progression. Biometric data was recorded on SO subjects, aged 16 to 26 years. The group was divided into 26 emmetropic subjects and 24 myopic subjects. Keratometry, corneal topography, ultrasonography, lens shape, central and peripheral refractive error, ocular blood flow and assessment of accommodation were measured on three occasions during an ISmonth to 2-year longitudinal study. Retinal contours were derived using a specially derived computer program. The thesis shows that myopia progression is related to an increase in vitreous chamber depth, a finding which supports previous work. The myopes exhibited hyperopic relative peripheral refractive error (PRE) and the emmetropes exhibited myopic relative PRE. Myopes demonstrated a prolate retinal shape and the retina became more prolate with myopia progression. The results show that a longitudinal, rather than equatorial, increase in the posterior segment is the principal structural correlate of myopia. Retinal shape, relative PRE and the ratio of axial length to corneal curvature have been indicated, in this thesis, as predictive factors for myopia onset and development. Data from this thesis demonstrates that myopia progression in the LOM group is the result of an increase in anterior segment power, owing to an increase in lens thickness, in conjunction with posterior segment elongation. Myopia progression in the EOM group is the product of a long posterior segment, which over-compensates for a weak anterior segment power. The weak anterior segment power in the EOM group is related to a combination of crystalline lens thinning and surface flattening. The results presented in this thesis confirm that posterior segment elongation is the main structural correlate in both EOM and LOM progression. The techniques and computer programs employed in the thesis are reproducible and robust providing a valuable framework for further myopia research and assessment of predictive factors.

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This thesis describes research on End-User Computing (EUC) in small business in an environment where no Information System (IS) support and expertise are available. The research aims to identify the factors that contribute to EUC Sophistication and understand the extent small firms are capable of developing their own applications. The intention is to assist small firms to adopt EUC, encourage better utilisation of their IT resources and gain the benefits associated with computerisation. The factors examined are derived inductively from previous studies where a model is developed to map these factors with the degree of sophistication associated with IT and EUC. This study attempts to combine the predictive power of quantitative research through surveys with the explanatory power of qualitative research through action-oriented case study. Following critical examination of the literature, a survey of IT Adoption and EUC was conducted. Instruments were then developed to measure EUC and IT Sophistication indexes based on sophistication constructs adapted from previous studies using data from the survey. This is followed by an in-depth action case study involving two small firms to investigate the EUC phenomenon in its real life context. The accumulated findings from these mixed research strategies are used to form the final model of EUC Sophistication in small business. Results of the study suggest both EUC Sophistication and the Presence of EUC in small business are affected by Management Support and Behaviour towards EUC. Additionally EUC Sophistication is also affected by the presence of an EUC Champion. Results are also consistent with respect to the independence between IT Sophistication and EUC Sophistication. The main research contributions include an accumulated knowledge of EUC in small business, the Model of EUC Sophistication, an instrument to measure EUC Sophistication Index for small firms, and a contribution to research methods in IS.

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This research identifies factors which influence the consumption of potable water supplied to customers' property. A complete spectrum of the customer base is examined including household, commercial and industrial properties. The research considers information from around the world, particularly demand management and tariff related projects from North America. A device termed the Flow Moderator was developed and proven, with extensive trials, to conserve water at a rate equivalent to 40 litres/property/day whilst maintaining standards-of-service considerably in excess of Regulatory requirements. A detailed appraisal of the Moderator underlines the costs and benefits available to the industry through deliberate application of even mild demand management. More radically the concept of a charging policy utilising the Moderator is developed and appraised. Advantages include the lower costs of conventional fixed-price charging systems coupled with the conservation and equitability aspects associated with metering. Explanatory models were developed linking consumption to a range of variables demonstrated that households served by a communal water service-pipe (known in the UK as a shared supply) are subject to associated restrictions equivalent to -180 litres/property/day. The research confirmed that occupancy levels were a significant predictive element for household, commercial and industrial customers. The occurrence of on-property leakage was also demonstrated to be a significant factor recorded as an event which offers considerable scope for demand management in its own right.

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This thesis introduces and develops a novel real-time predictive maintenance system to estimate the machine system parameters using the motion current signature. Recently, motion current signature analysis has been addressed as an alternative to the use of sensors for monitoring internal faults of a motor. A maintenance system based upon the analysis of motion current signature avoids the need for the implementation and maintenance of expensive motion sensing technology. By developing nonlinear dynamical analysis for motion current signature, the research described in this thesis implements a novel real-time predictive maintenance system for current and future manufacturing machine systems. A crucial concept underpinning this project is that the motion current signature contains infor­mation relating to the machine system parameters and that this information can be extracted using nonlinear mapping techniques, such as neural networks. Towards this end, a proof of con­cept procedure is performed, which substantiates this concept. A simulation model, TuneLearn, is developed to simulate the large amount of training data required by the neural network ap­proach. Statistical validation and verification of the model is performed to ascertain confidence in the simulated motion current signature. Validation experiment concludes that, although, the simulation model generates a good macro-dynamical mapping of the motion current signature, it fails to accurately map the micro-dynamical structure due to the lack of knowledge regarding performance of higher order and nonlinear factors, such as backlash and compliance. Failure of the simulation model to determine the micro-dynamical structure suggests the pres­ence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature. This motivated us to perform surrogate data testing for nonlinearity in the motion current signature. Results confirm the presence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature, thereby, motivating the use of nonlinear tech­niques for further analysis. Outcomes of the experiment show that nonlinear noise reduction combined with the linear reverse algorithm offers precise machine system parameter estimation using the motion current signature for the implementation of the real-time predictive maintenance system. Finally, a linear reverse algorithm, BJEST, is developed and applied to the motion current signature to estimate the machine system parameters.

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Despite the availability of various control techniques and project control software many construction projects still do not achieve their cost and time objectives. Research in this area so far has mainly been devoted to identifying causes of cost and time overruns. There is limited research geared towards studying factors inhibiting the ability of practitioners to effectively control their projects. To fill this gap, a survey was conducted on 250 construction project organizations in the UK, which was followed by face-to-face interviews with experienced practitioners from 15 of these organizations. The common factors that inhibit both time and cost control during construction projects were first identified. Subsequently 90 mitigating measures have been developed for the top five leading inhibiting factors—design changes, risks/uncertainties, inaccurate evaluation of project time/duration, complexities and non-performance of subcontractors were recommended. These mitigating measures were classified as: preventive, predictive, corrective and organizational measures. They can be used as a checklist of good practice and help project managers to improve the effectiveness of control of their projects.

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A significant proportion of patients experience chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) following inguinal hernia surgery. Psychological models are useful in predicting acute pain after surgery, and in predicting the transition from acute to chronic pain in non-surgical contexts. This is a prospective cohort study to investigate psychological (cognitive and emotional) risk factors for CPSP after inguinal hernia surgery. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires before surgery and 1 week and 4 months after surgery. Data collected before surgery and 1 week after surgery were used to predict pain at 4 months. Psychological risk factors assessed included anxiety, depression, fear-avoidance, activity avoidance, catastrophizing, worry about the operation, activity expectations, perceived pain control and optimism. The study included 135 participants; follow-up questionnaires were returned by 119 (88.1%) and 115 (85.2%) participants at 1 week and 4 months after surgery respectively. The incidence of CPSP (pain at 4 months) was 39.5%. After controlling for age, body mass index and surgical variables (e.g. anaesthetic, type of surgery and mesh type used), lower pre-operative optimism was an independent risk factor for CPSP at 4 months; lower pre-operative optimism and lower perceived control over pain at 1 week after surgery predicted higher pain intensity at 4 months. No emotional variables were independently predictive of CPSP. Further research should target these cognitive variables in pre-operative psychological preparation for surgery. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.