The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Patterns of refractive change in myopic subjects during the incipient phase of presbyopia:a preliminary study

Purpose: Changes in refractive error are well documented over the typical human lifespan. However, a relatively neglected period of investigation appears to be during the late fourth decade; this is at the incipient phase of presbyopia (IP), where the amplitude of accommodation is much reduced and approaches the level where a first reading addition is anticipated. Significantly, informal clinical observation has suggested a low incidence of an unexpected abrupt increase in myopia during IP. Methods: We investigated this alleged myopic shift retrospectively by mapping the longitudinal refraction histories of normally-sighted 35-44years old British White patients previously examined in routine optometric practice. The refractive trends in the right eyes of healthy myopic subjects (spherical equivalent refraction, SER =-0.50D: N=39) were analysed relative to that point at which a first near dioptric addition was considered to be clinically useful. Results: A refractive change was evident in some subjects during IP; viz, an abrupt increase in myopic SER of between -0.50 and -0.75D. These individuals (N=8) represented 20% of the study population of myopic incipient presbyopes. Beyond the pivotal point of the first near addition the longitudinal refraction stabilized in these subjects. In contrast, and as the extent of the available longitudinal data would permit, the remaining myopic eyes maintained an approximately stable refractive trend throughout IP and beyond. Conclusions: The anatomical or physiological basis of this specific late (non-developmental) abrupt myopic refractive change is an intriguing issue. Axial (vitreous chamber elongation), corneal (contour) and lenticular (profile and index) power bases, alone or in concert, might be considered candidates for this hitherto unexplored refractive phenomenon. Although necessarily obtained under conventional conditions of central (0deg) fixation, our data might also be a reflection of the recent recognition of the possible influence of the peripheral refraction upon the axial error. Consideration of this material provides an impetus for further research, including ocular biometry, a reappraisal of ciliary zonular functional anatomy, renewed investigation of the AC/A ratio, and the extent of a centripetal refractive influence on myopia development. © 2011 The College of Optometrists.

The continuum of psychotic symptoms in the general population:a cross-national study

OBJECTIVE: To identify the cross-national prevalence of psychotic symptoms in the general population and to analyze their impact on health status. METHOD: The sample was composed of 256,445 subjects (55.9% women), from nationally representative samples of 52 countries worldwide participating in the World Health Organization's World Health Survey. Standardized and weighted prevalence of psychotic symptoms were calculated in addition to the impact on health status as assessed by functioning in multiple domains. RESULTS: Overall prevalences for specific symptoms ranged from 4.80% (SE = 0.14) for delusions of control to 8.37% (SE = 0.20) for delusions of reference and persecution. Prevalence figures varied greatly across countries. All symptoms of psychosis produced a significant decline in health status after controlling for potential confounders. There was a clear change in health impact between subjects not reporting any symptom and those reporting at least one symptom (effect size of 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of the presence of at least one psychotic symptom has a wide range worldwide varying as much as from 0.8% to 31.4%. Psychotic symptoms signal a problem of potential public health concern, independent of the presence of a full diagnosis of psychosis, as they are common and are related to a significant decrement in health status. The presence of at least one psychotic symptom is related to a significant poorer health status, with a regular linear decrement in health depending on the number of symptoms.