7 resultados para polls

em Aston University Research Archive


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There is a widespread sense that the Front National (FN) came of age in 2014 as a challenger for power in France. The municipal and European elections appeared to herald a transformation in the party's development and prospects, demonstrating its capacity to compete as a major player at subnational and supranational levels following strong performances at the national level in the presidential and legislative elections of 2012. This article takes a critical view of that assessment. It argues that the FN in 2014 made significant progress but that the apparent surge of support for the party in these elections belies fundamental weaknesses in the depth and range of its electoral capacities and in its prospects for transforming itself into a party of government. These weaknesses were again evident in the departmental elections of 2015, confirming that the FN has not succeeded in ending bipolarisation and imposing a genuinely tripartite structure on French politics. Far from being the 'first party of France' and 'at the gates of power', the FN is still consigned primarily to a role of spoiler, with its progression stalled by institutional obstacles, electoral limitations and a political containment which it remains powerless to overcome.

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The thesis will examine the role and impact of the concept of the community within the structural reorganisation of English local government between 1992 and 1995. The methodological approach adopted within this thesis has been to compare the use, application and significance of the community with a case study of a specific local authority and its preparations for reorganisation. The authority in question was Wychavon District Council located in the County of Hereford and Worcester. The conclusions from this case study were then compared to the role and significance of the community in the reviews of other local authorities in England. This study produced two important results. These were that there was an established body of literature which argued that the community could be of value to local government and that the community should be identified by measuring individuals sense of belonging and feelings of attachment, as well as such daily activities as shopping and working (which help to stimulate these feelings). The then Conservative Government even instructed the specially appointed Commission to apply this particular interpretation of the community to their reviews, and to attempt to base any new unitary authorities upon the social and spatial area it created. The Conservative Government also gave the Commission a Community Index to assist with the identification of communities, and appointed the pollsters MORI to support the Commission with the task of identifying the emotional and more subjective senses of community. The Commission eventually came to rely entirely on the MORI polls, and whilst these polls attempted to faithfully apply the Governments interpretation of the community, they unfortunately produced small and often complex communities, which the Commission felt could not be applied to its reviews. This therefore led to the community becoming a secondary consideration to the factors of cost and efficiency. Furthermore the problematic nature of the community - that is, the production of small and complex communities - was repeated in this thesis' own survey of community identities in the District of Wychavon. In fact this authority's proposals for reorganisation were based almost entirely upon the factors of cost, size and efficiency.

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Ukrainians went to the polls in 2010 to elect a president for the fifth time since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, electing Viktor Yanukovych with a narrow majority over Yulia Tymoshenko in the second round run-off on 7 February. This article provides a contextual introduction to the 2010 presidential election, an analysis of the campaign and the results and concludes with a discussion of post-election coalition building and what the election means for the consolidation of Ukrainian democracy and Ukraine’s European integration process.

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The past two decades have witnessed growing political disaffection and a widening mass/elite disjuncture in France, reflected in opinion polls, rising abstentionism, electoral volatility and fragmentation, with sustained voting against incumbent governments. Though the electoral system has preserved the duopoly of the mainstream coalitions, they have suffered loss of public confidence and swings in electoral support. Stable parliamentary majorities conceal a political landscape of assorted anti-system parties and growing support for far right and far left. The picture is paradoxical: the French express alienation from political parties yet relate positively to their political institutions; they berate national politicians but retain strong bonds with those elected locally; they appear increasingly disengaged from politics yet forms of ‘direct democracy’ are finding new vigour. While the electoral, attitudinal and systemic factors reviewed here may not signal a crisis of democracy, they point to serious problems of political representation in contemporary France.

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Since 1989, by drawing a new boundary between the EU and its eastern neighbours, the European Union has created a frontier that has been popularly described in the frontier states as the new 'Berlin Wall'. This book is the first comparative study of the impact of public opinion on the making of foreign policy in two eastern European states that live on either side of the new European divide: Poland and Ukraine. Focusing on the vocal, informed segment of public opinion and drawing on results of both opinion polls and a series of innovative focus groups gathered since the Orange Revolution, Nathaniel Copsey unravels the mystery of how this crucial segment of the public impacts on foreign policy-makers in both states. In developing this argument, Copsey takes a closer look at the business community and how important economic factors are in forming public opinion. Filling a gap in the literature currently available on the topic, this book presents a fresh approach to our understanding of Polish-Ukrainian relations and how the public's view of the past influences contemporary politics. It is an ideal resource for those researching in the field of Russian and Eastern European Studies.

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Trade unions in Poland have not built the stable and long-term relations with political parties as are observed in Western democracies. By analysing the historical and symbolic background of the transformation to a democratic civil society and free market economy, political preferences of working class, trade union membership rates, and public opinion polls, we argue that, in case of Poland, the initial links between political parties and trade unions weakened over time. Polish trade unions never had a chance to become a long-term intermediary between society and political parties, making the Polish case study a double exception from the traditional models.

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Persuasive communication is the process of shaping, reinforcing and changing others' responses. In political debates, speakers express their views towards the debated topics by choosing both the content of their discourse and the argumentation process. In this work we study the use of semantic frames for modelling argumentation in speakers' discourse. We investigate the impact of a speaker's argumentation style and their effect in influencing an audience in supporting their candidature. We model the influence index of each candidate based on their relative standings in the polls released prior to the debate and present a system which ranks speakers in terms of their relative influence using a combination of content and persuasive argumentation features. Our results show that although content alone is predictive of a speaker's influence rank, persuasive argumentation also affects such indices.