Expert systems for vendor selection

The survival of organisations, especially SMEs, depends, to the greatest extent, on those who supply them with the required material input. This is because if the supplier fails to deliver the right materials at the right time and place, and at the right price, then the recipient organisation is bound to fail in its obligations to satisfy the needs of its customers, and to stay in business. Hence, the task of choosing a supplier(s) from a list of vendors, that an organisation will trust with its very existence, is not an easy one. This project investigated how purchasing personnel in organisations solve the problem of vendor selection. The investigation went further to ascertain whether an Expert Systems model could be developed and used as a plausible solution to the problem. An extensive literature review indicated that very scanty research has been conducted in the area of Expert Systems for Vendor Selection, whereas many research theories in expert systems and in purchasing and supply management chain, respectively, had been reported. A survey questionnaire was designed and circulated to people in the industries who actually perform the vendor selection tasks. Analysis of the collected data confirmed the various factors which are considered during the selection process, and established the order in which those factors are ranked. Five of the factors, namely, Production Methods Used, Vendors Financial Background, Manufacturing Capacity, Size of Vendor Organisations, and Suppliers Position in the Industry; appeared to have similar patterns in the way organisations ranked them. These patterns suggested that the bigger the organisation, the more importantly they regarded the above factors. Further investigations revealed that respondents agreed that the most important factors were: Product Quality, Product Price and Delivery Date. The most apparent pattern was observed for the Vendors Financial Background. This generated curiosity which led to the design and development of a prototype expert system for assessing the financial profile of a potential supplier(s). This prototype was called ESfNS. It determines whether a prospective supplier(s) has good financial background or not. ESNS was tested by the potential users who then confirmed that expert systems have great prospects and commercial viability in the domain for solving vendor selection problems.

An investigation of managerial skills:Implications for personnel policy

This research explores the conceptual basis in adopting a skills approach to management development. The literature reveals a number of development approaches but only a limited appreciation of how the manager does his job i.e. of the skills that he needs. An investigation of managerial skills was conducted with 10 manager s mainly occupying middle and senior positions. The principal source of evidence was the manager's thoughts on what he did and how he did it, although the interviews were supplemented by formal and informal observation. There was also a dialectic value from discussions with other analysts/managers and empathy between analyst and practitioner also played a part. Each manager was invited to comment upon his own skills analysis as a check upon validity. The study supports the view that the manager similar to other skilled practitioners, is conceptually a model builder and operationally a navigator (Singleton 1978b) . The manager variously holds enactive, pictorial, symbolic and hybrid models that enable him to understand his world and act in it. The universal managerial function is decision making and the study presents a preliminary nomenclature in classifying decision processes or perceptual skills. Managerial skills are also reflected in interpersonal interaction where the hallmark is mutual construction and attribution and in 'self-management’ where the requirement is to cope with the inner rather than the outer world. Differences between the managers are most evident in perceptual skills, the more senior manager requiring increasing ability to process abstract information and take account of environmental uncertainty. He will also make greater use of 'off- line’ information. The practical purpose in studying managerial skills is to facilitate the improvement of managerial performance and the implications of the research for training, selection and appraisal are explored.

An evaluation of Home Office extended interviews for police personnel

In this thesis the validity of an Assessment Centre (called 'Extended Interview') operated on behalf of the British police is investigated. This Assessment Centre (AC) is used to select from amongst internal candidates (serving policemen and policewomen) and external candidates (graduates) for places on an accelerated promotion scheme. The literature is reviewed with respect to history, content, structure, reliability, validity, efficiency and usefulness of ACs, and to contextual issues surrounding AC use. The history of, background to and content of police Extended Interviews (Els) is described, and research issues are identified. Internal validation involved regression of overall EI grades on measures from component tests, exercises, interviews and peer nominations. Four samples numbering 126, 73, 86 and 109 were used in this part of the research. External validation involved regression of three types of criteria - training grades, rank attained, and supervisory ratings - on all EI measures. Follow-up periods for job criteria ranged from 7 to 19 years. Three samples, numbering 223, 157 and 86, were used in this part of the research. In subsidiary investigations, supervisory ratings were factor analysed and criteria intercorrelated. For two of the samples involved in the external validition, clinical/judgemental prediction was compared with mechanical (unit-weighted composite) prediction. Main conclusions are that: (1) EI selection decisions were valid, but only for a job performance criterion; relatively low validity overall was interpreted principally in terms of the questionable job relatedness of the EI procedure; (2) Els as a whole had more validity than was reflected in final EI decisions; (3) assessors' use of information was not optimum, tending to over-emphasize subjectively derived information particularly from interviews; and (4) mechanical prediction was superior to clinical/judgemental prediction for five major criteria.