21 resultados para permanent and transitory shocks

em Aston University Research Archive


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New media platforms have changed the media landscape forever, as they have altered our perceptions of the limits of communication, and reception of information. Platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp enable individuals to circumvent the traditional mass media, converging audience and producer to create millions of ‘citizen journalists’. This new breed of journalist uses these platforms as a way of, not only receiving news, but of instantaneously, and often spontaneously, expressing opinions and venting and sharing emotions, thoughts and feelings. They are liberated from cultural and physical restraints, such as time, space and location, and they are not constrained by factors that impact upon the traditional media, such as editorial control, owner or political bias or the pressures of generating commercial revenue. A consequence of the way in which these platforms have become ingrained within our social culture is that habits, conventions and social norms, that were once informal and transitory manifestations of social life, are now infused within their use. What were casual and ephemeral actions and/or acts of expression, such as conversing with friends or colleagues or swapping/displaying pictures, or exchanging thoughts that were once kept private, or maybe shared with a select few, have now become formalised and potentially permanent, on view for the world to see. Incidentally, ‘traditional’ journalists and media outlets are also utilising new media, as it allows them to react, and disseminate news, instantaneously, within a hyper-competitive marketplace. However, in a world where we are saturated, not only by citizen journalists, but by traditional media outlets, offering access to news and opinion twenty-four hours a day, via multiple new media platforms, there is increased pressure to ‘break’ news fast and first. This paper will argue that new media, and the culture and environment it has created, for citizen journalists, traditional journalists and the media generally, has altered our perceptions of the limits and boundaries of freedom of expression dramatically, and that the corollary to this seismic shift is the impact on the notion of privacy and private life. Consequently, this paper will examine what a reasonable expectation of privacy may now mean, in a new media world.

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This paper examines the relationship between multinationality and firm performance. The analysis is based on a sample of over 400 UK multinationals, and encompasses both service sector and manufacturing sector multinationals. This paper confirms the non-linear relationship between performance and multinationality that is reported elsewhere in the literature, but offers further analysis of this relationship. Specifically, by correcting for endogeneity in the investment decision, and for shocks in productivity across countries, the paper demonstrates that the returns to multinationality are greater than those that have been reported elsewhere, and persist to higher degrees of international diversification.

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Ashby wrote about cybernetics, during which discourse he described a Law that attempts to resolve difficulties arising in complex situations – he suggested using variety to combat complexity. In this paper, we note that the delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Kyoto, 1997, were offered a ‘simplifying solution’ to cope with the complexity of discussing multiple pollutants allegedly contributing to ‘climate change’. We assert that the adoption of CO2eq has resulted in imprecise thinking regarding the ‘carbon footprint’ – that is, ‘CO2’ – to the exclusion of other pollutants. We propose, as Ashby might have done, that the CO2eq and other factors within the ‘climate change’ negotiations be disaggregated to allow careful and specific individual solutions to be agreed on each factor. We propose a new permanent and transparent ‘action group’ be in charge of agenda setting and to manage the messy annual meetings. This body would be responsible for achieving accords at these annual meetings, rather than forcing this task on national hosts. We acknowledge the task is daunting and we recommend moving on from Ashby's Law to Beer's Viable Systems approach.

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We examine the short-term price reaction of 424 UK stocks to large one-day price changes. Using the GJR-GARCH(1,1), we find no statistical difference amongst the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the Single Index, the Fama–French and the Carhart–Fama–French models. Shocks bigger or equal to 5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of 1% for all the models. Whilst shocks smaller or equal to -5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of -0.43% for the Single Index, the CARs are around -0.34% for the other two models. Positive shocks of all sizes and negative shocks maller or equal to -5% are followed by return continuations, whilst the market is efficient following larger negative shocks. The price reaction to shocks is unaffected when we estimate the CARs using the conditional covariances of the pricing variables.

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Autism is a developmental disorder that is currently defined in terms of a triad of impairments in social interaction, communication, and behavioural flexibility. Psychological models have focussed on deficits in high level social and cognitive processes, such as ‘weak central coherence’ and deficits in ‘theory of mind’. Converging evidence from different fields of neuroscience research indicates that the underlying neural dysfunction is associated with atypical patterns of cortical connectivity (Rippon et al., 2007). This arises very early in development and results in sensory, perceptual and cognitive deficits at a much earlier and more fundamental level than previously suggested, but with cascading effects on higher level psychological and social processes. Earlier research in this sphere has focussed mainly on patterns of underconnectivity in distributed cortical networks underpinning process such as language and executive function. (Just et al., 2007). Such research mainly utilises imaging techniques with high spatial resolution. This paper focuses on evidence associated with local over-connectivity, evident in more low level and transitory processes and hence more easily measurable with techniques with high temporal resolution, such as MEG and EEG. Results are described which provide evidence of such local over-connectivity, characterised by atypical results in the gamma frequency range (Brown et al., 2005) together with discussions about the future directions of such research and its implications for remediation.

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This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

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Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.

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Past studies resulted in conflicting definitions of consumer motivation. On the one hand, motivations are seen as the consumer’s characteristics that shape her general behavior (motivational trait). On the other hand, they are seen as contextual variables representing the reason why the individual is behaving specific to today’s context (motivational state). The objective of this research is to stress the difference between these two concepts and to understand the impact of each on consumer behavior. We applied our empirical study to shopping motivations; our results show a strong interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Problem and Hypothesis On the one hand, Westbrook and Black (1985) consider shopping motivations as individual permanent characteristics. This concept is shared by other researchers (Rohm and Swaminathan 2004), which show that some shoppers are functional (they shop for convenience, information seeking, and time saving) while some others are hedonic (they shop for social interaction, bargain hunting and browsing). On the other hand, Kaltcheva and Weitz (2006) define motivations as a contextual orientation changing over time, depending on the situation, and show that contextual shopping motivations have a strong impact on shopping behavior. From our knowledge, no research specifically examined the respective impact of both these shopping motivation types. To deal with this issue, we used the notions of “traits” and “states” that have been largely used in marketing research to designate respectively a permanent characteristic of the individual and a temporary orientation of the consumer (Mowen 2000). The reversal theory (Apter 2001) suggests that two opposite states exist: the telic and the paratelic states. In the telic state, individuals set goals for themselves, must be disciplined to reach these goals, and do not behave in accordance with their personal trait. In the paratelic state, individuals are seeking arousal and enjoyment, do not set rules, and one could postulate that they act in accordance with their natural tendencies. Based on these considerations, we hypothesize the following process: in situations involving paratelic states, hedonic as well as functional individuals should behave according to their natural traits, whereas in situations involving telic states, hedonic people should inhibit their natural propensity to enjoy shopping and behave similarly to functional people. Hence, we postulate the following: Hypothesis: Compared to shoppers with functional motivational trait, shoppers with hedonic motivational trait will a) significantly display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition of paratelic motivational state, and b) not display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition a telic motivational state Empirical Research First, 108 participants were asked to fill a multi-items scale about their shopping habits, which actually measured their shopping motivational traits. This questionnaire allowed us to highlight four different dimensions in shopping motivational traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting, and browsing. According to their scores on different items, participants were classified as functional or as hedonic on each of these four dimensions (a single individual may be hedonic on some dimensions and functional on others). Then, participants were then induced to adopt either a telic or a paratelic shopping motivational state while reading an appropriate scenario. Finally, participants were asked for their shopping behavior intentions in response to the shopping context. Four items were developed, corresponding to the four shopping motivational trait dimensions we found with our factor analysis. Results As we found four dimensions in shopping motivational trait, we set up four quasi-experimental designs to capture the entire phenomenon: for each dimension, a 2 (motivational trait) x 2 (motivational state) design was built, where the dependant variable was the shopping behavior element corresponding to the studied dimension. Four 2 x 2 Anovas were performed to assess the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Concerning the three dimensions - browsing, novelty/utility seeking, and bargain hunting- , in the paratelic state scenario participants with hedonic motivational trait displayed significantly more hedonic shopping behavior intentions than participants with a functional motivational trait (resp. F = 9.701, p = .003; F = 4.979, p = .03; F = 5.757, p = .02); and in the telic state scenario, there was no significant difference in behavior intentions between participants with hedonic or functional motivation trait. Each time, the interaction effect between motivational state and motivational trait was significant (resp. F = 4.859, p = .03; F = 3.314, p = .07; F = 2.98, p = .08). Concerning the fourth dimension, social interaction, shopping behavior intentions of participants with hedonic and with functional motivational traits were significantly different in the paratelic state scenario (F = 29.898, p <.000) as well as in the telic state scenario (F = 9.559, p = .003). However, the interaction effect showed that this behavioral difference was significantly stronger in the paratelic scenario. All these results support our research hypothesis. Discussion and Implications Our study provides consistent support for our hypotheses saying that there is an interaction effect between shopping motivational states and shopping motivational traits. The generalization of the results is strengthened by the study of four different shopping traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting and browsing. As we proposed, when shopping in a goal-oriented state (telic state), behaviors of hedonic and functional shoppers do not differ significantly. Conversely, when shopping for a recreational reason (paratelic state), hedonic and functional shoppers behave significantly different. These results could explain why some previous studies concluded that shopping motivational traits had no impact on shopping behavior: they did not take into consideration the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Moreover, our study shows that marketing surveys performed by store managers to draw the personal profile of their customers must be crossed with contextual motivations in order to accurately forecast shopper behavior. Future Developments Our results can be explained by the self-control process, which pushes hedonic-trait shoppers to behave in a rather functional way in utilitarian situations. However, to be certain that this is the very process that occurs, we plan to add self-control perception scales to our existing measures. This is obviously the next step of this research.

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Past studies resulted in conflicting definitions of consumer motivation. Motivations are seen either as the consumer? s characteristics that shape her general behavior (motivational trait), or as contextual variables representing the reason why the individual is behaving specific to today?s context (motivational state). The objective of this research is to understand the impact of each on consumer behavior. Applied to shopping motivations, our study shows a strong interaction between motivational trait and state: motivational traits influence behavior only when associated with a recreational motivational state. In a functional motivational state, individuals prevent their personal characteristics from being fully expressed.

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This paper considers the role of HR in ethics and social responsibility and questions why, despite an acceptance of a role in ethical stewardship, the HR profession appears to be reluctant to embrace its responsibilities in this area. The study explores how HR professionals see their role in relation to ethical stewardship of the organisation, and the factors that inhibit its execution. A survey of 113 UK-based HR professionals, working in both domestic and multinational corporations, was conducted to explore their perceptions of the role of HR in maintaining ethical and socially responsible action in their organisations, and to identify features of the organisational environment which might help or hinder this role being effectively carried out. The findings indicate that although there is a clear understanding of the expectations of ethical stewardship, HR professionals often face difficulties in fulfilling this role because of competing tensions and perceptions of their role within their organisations. A way forward is proposed, which draws on the positive individual factors highlighted in this research to explore how approaches to organisational development (through positive deviance) may reduce these tensions to enable the better fulfilment of ethical responsibilities within organisations. The involvement and active modelling of ethical behaviour by senior management, coupled with an open approach to surfacing organisational values and building HR procedures, which support socially responsible action, are crucial to achieving socially responsible organisations. Finally, this paper challenges the HR profession, through professional and academic institutions internationally, to embrace their role in achieving this. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

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We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. While households with large holdings of securities from stressed Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) de-crease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Euro area crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Euro area countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. Only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration. Our results are robust to falsification tests, and instrumental variables estimation.

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This paper extends the smooth transition conditional correlation model by studying for the first time the impact that illiquidity shocks have on stock market return comovement. We show that firms that experience shocks that increase illiquidity are less liquid than firms that experience shocks that decrease illiquidity. Shocks that increase illiquidity have no statistical impact on comovement. However, shocks that reduce illiquidity lead to a fall in comovement, a pattern that becomes stronger as the illiquidity of the firm increases. This discovery is consistent with increased transparency and an improvement in price efficiency. We find that a small number of firms experience a double illiquidity shock. For these firms, at the first shock, a rise in illiquidity reduces comovement while a fall in illiquidity raises comovement. The second shock partly reverses these changes as a rise in illiquidity is associated with a rise in comovement and a fall in illiquidity is associated with a fall in comovement. These results have important implications for portfolio construction and also for the measurement and evolution of market beta and the cost of capital as it suggests that investors can achieve higher returns for the same amount of market risk because of the greater diversification benefits that exist. We also find that illiquidity, friction, firm size and the pre-shock correlation are all associated with the magnitude of the correlation change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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We present an experimental and numerical study of transversely loaded uniform fibre-Bragg gratings. A novel loading configuration is described, producing pressure-induced spectral holes in an initially strong uniform grating. The birefringence properties of these gratings are analysed. It is shown that the frequency splitting of the two spectral holes, corresponding to two orthogonal polarisation states, can be adjusted precisely using this loading configuration. We finally demonstrate a new and simple scheme to induce multiple spectral holes in the stop-band. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Permanent deformation and fracture may develop simultaneously when an asphalt mixture is subjected to a compressive load. The objective of this research is to separate viscoplasticity and viscofracture from viscoelasticity so that the permanent deformation and fracture of the asphalt mixtures can be individually and accurately characterized without the influence of viscoelasticity. The undamaged properties of 16 asphalt mixtures that have two binder types, two air void contents, and two aging conditions are first obtained by conducting nondestructive creep tests and nondestructive dynamic modulus tests. Testing results are analyzed by using the linear viscoelastic theory in which the creep compliance and the relaxation modulus are modeled by the Prony model. The dynamic modulus and phase angle of the undamaged asphalt mixtures remained constant with the load cycles. The undamaged asphalt mixtures are then used to perform the destructive dynamic modulus tests in which the dynamic modulus and phase angle of the damaged asphalt mixtures vary with load cycles. This indicates plastic evolution and crack propagation. The growth of cracks is signaled principally by the increase of the phase angle, which occurs only in the tertiary stage. The measured total strain is successfully decomposed into elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, plastic strain, viscoplastic strain, and viscofracture strain by employing the pseudostrain concept and the extended elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. The separated viscoplastic strain uses a predictive model to characterize the permanent deformation. The separated viscofracture strain uses a fracture strain model to characterize the fracture of the asphalt mixtures in which the flow number is determined and a crack speed index is proposed. Comparisons of the 16 samples show that aged asphalt mixtures with a low air void content have a better performance, resisting permanent deformation and fracture. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.